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Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-08

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

Hello and welcome to the Juneau Avalanche Advisory for the 2009-2010 season. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS- TODAY...RAIN. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 36 TO 42. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. SATURDAY, CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. We have received very little snow recently and .5" or rain in the last 24 hours. This storm came in at near freezing temperatures and rapidly turned into rain. At summit elevations there may be a few areas of windloaded new snow that are now rain saturated and placing stress on the pack. If the high temps and rain persist we will want to be careful and watch out for the potential of larger slab avalanches due to the multiple weak layers still remaining deeper in the snowpack.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-08

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

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Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-09

Sat, 09 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

Hello and welcome to the 2010 Juneau Avalanche Advisory. The National Weather Service Forecasts- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...TODAY, AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN...EXCEPT SNOW IN TAKU INLET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BECOMING LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 39...RANGING TO AROUND 32 IN TAKU INLET. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 24 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. MONDAY...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 6 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. With very little new snow in quite some time avalanche danger remains moderate at this time. As long as the rains come in slowly conditions will remain the same. Today and tomorrow we are expected to have high moisture accumulation rates. If the predicted winter storm materializes danger will increase.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-11

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Due to yesterdays snowfall accumulation rates avalanche danger is Serious at this time. As tomorrows storm continues to affect us we will see a rise in temperature. This will create higher levels of danger. The snowpack in place from the last 2 weeks warm weather is still not frozen solid in place. Quite a bit of moisture remains in the snowpack at this time. Watch to see how this snowpack supports the weight of the newly fallen snow.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-13

Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. We received quite a bit of new snow in the last week. This new snow is laying on top of a base that was very rain saturated. This new snow bonded well to the old snow surface, yet the lower snowpack is still draining free moisture and remains somewhat unsolidified at this time. The pack has seen quite a bit of near freezing temperatures and is not refreezing well at this time. Until we get a multiple day cold spell lower level instabilities may remain. Any open, steep, unsupported slopes remain questionalbe at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-16

Sat, 16 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY. BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING...THEN EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF JUNEAU WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDY SOUTH OF JUNEAU. LOWS 19 TO 25. EAST WIND 30 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We received quite a bit of snow at mountain top elevations in the last week which has now had a fair amount of time to settle and bond. Several slab avalanches were sighted in the region over the last few days. The slabs are becoming more stable over time. Ridge top winds are creating loading in open areas. Additional small slabs were developing near ridge top and in exposed areas. If you get a chance to view the west face of Mt Roberts today you can see the remains of a slab avalanche from earlier in the week.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-24

Sun, 24 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS-TODAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...SOUTH DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. LOCALLY BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 28 TO 34. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With no new snow in the last week. The snow in place has had quite a bit of time to settle and bond. Conditions are quite stable at this time. As we start to get the new snow it will be interesting to see how this bonds to the soft snow in place. Spatial variability will be quite high and layering should be interesting to see. We have had a fair amount of wind in the last week which has placed a few small isolated slabs in wind loaded areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-01-27

Wed, 27 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. HIGHS 36 TO 42. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS 27 TO 33. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS. With very little new snow in the last week, the snow in place has had quite a bit of time to settle and bond. Conditions are fairly stable at this time. We have had a fair amount of wind in the last week which has placed a few small isolated slabs in wind loaded areas. Small slab avalanches have been sighted, both by natural release and man made. Watch wind loaded areas for increased danger as this next wave of moisture come through. Danger in the backcountry is moderate due to man made triggers. As we start to get the new snow it will be interesting to see how this bonds to the snow in place. Spatial variability will be quite high and layering should be interesting to see. The snow surface currently ranges from soft consolidated boot top powder to had icy slabs in areas with everything else inbetween.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-02-01

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. PATCHY FOG. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. With very little new snow in the last week things are farily stable at this time. We have seen more above freezing temperature on Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau than below freezing temperatures in the last week. This was slowly weekening the snowpack. Todays temps have dropped back below freezing and the lower layers are starting to solidify. As long as rainor snow comes in slowly or not at all danger levels should remain moderate. Currently at lower elevations the bottom 2/3 of the snowpack is moist, warm, and rotten. There is some bonding and bridging above this layer. Yet the weakness is quite present and needs quite a bit of time at below freezing temperatures if it is to resolidify.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-02-04

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. We received about 4 " of soft snow on Wednesday night that is bonding well to the old snow surface. During that time we had prominent winds between 10-20 mph through most of it. This new snow accompanied by loading winds is placed a few weak slabs in windloaded areas, near ridgetops and in open, exposed areas. With very little new snow in the last week things are farily stable at this time. We have seen more above freezing temperature on Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau than below freezing temperatures in the last week. This was slowly weekening the snowpack. The last two days tempsvdropped back below freezing and the lower layers are starting to solidify. But today we are once again seeing above freezing temperatures on most of the mountain. As long as rain or snow comes in slowly or not at all danger levels should remain moderate. Currently at lower elevations the bottom 2/3 of the snowpack is moist, warm, and rotten. There is some bonding and bridging above this layer. Yet the weakness is quite present and needs quite a bit of time at below freezing temperatures if it is to resolidify.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-02-06

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 26 TO 32. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. With very little new snow in the last week and the cooler temperatures in place, things are farily stable at this time. We have seen more above freezing temperature on Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau than below freezing temperatures in the last week. This was slowly weekening the snowpack. We have seen cooler temperatures in the last 48 hours which is starting to solidify the snowpack in place As long as rain or snow comes in slowly or not at all danger levels should remain Low. Currently at lower elevations the bottom 2/3 of the snowpack is moist, warm, and rotten. There is some bonding and bridging above this layer. Yet the weakness is quite present and needs quite a bit of time at below freezing temperatures if it is to resolidify 100%. Do to the continued rains and above freezing temperatures we are starting to be concerned with free moinsture in the snowpack. This moisture continues to eat at the bonds in the snowpack. Areas on steep open slopes are becoming more suspect. Thin snow cover on rocks in places may start to clean off as well. Also watch slopes with glide cracks as the prolonged temps can cause rapid glide activity which will add increased stress to the slabs in place. Backcountry danger may be higher in places. The cooler temperatures last night have started to freeze the pack back up a bit more.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-02-10

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- A GRADUAL CHANGE TO A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN OVER THE PANHANDLE SINCE LATE JANUARY ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 200 FEET INCREASING TO 600 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 27. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. With the recent rains and warm temperatures the snow down deeper in the pack has seen quite a bit of settlement and consolidation. Yet remains quite wet with quite a bit of free moisture in the snowpack do to very little freezing and over 3.5 inches of rain in the last week. It was above freezing at tram elevations for well over a week. This continued to destabilize the snowpack by adding to the long periods of above freezing temperatures at higher elevations. We are below freezing again now at tram elevations for the first time in quite a while and have more than a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations. With our previous prolonged above freezing temperatures down low and rain the old snow in place is still quite loose and contains quite a bit of liquid. This new snow is sitting on a weak layer that has not frozen and solidified at this point yet seems to be getting stronger in the last 24 hours. Yesterdays field work on Saddle Mountain on Douglas Island showed evidence of recent avalanches and a 22" hard slab of new snow sitting on a 1" layer of rounded melt formed crystals. This is like placing a slurpee on a mirror then adding the block of new snow on top of it..the weak layer can only take so much before the block of new snow wants to slide off of the base layer. But this weak layers appears to be gaining strength and bonding better in the last 18 hours. We have seen quite a bit of windloading during this period of new snow as well. This created slabs in windblown areas that may be a concern. Avalanche danger is moderate at this time in the urban areas. Avalanche danger is considerable to questionably high on Douglas Island especially at upper elevations that have seen more snow and windloading. If avalanches were to occur in these areas the chance of them being larger than in the urban areas exists as well. Observations in the area in the last week are showing that the spring avalanche cycle is upon us quite early this year. Climax avalanches have been sighted in areas with creep and remain possible until we see a long cooling period. At this time spatial variability is quite high. If you are a backcountry skier make sure you are making good decisions on your routes, ski lines and the snow stability in your chosen region.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-05

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. VERY WINDY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. TUESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Yesterdays field tests showed that this new snow was bonding fairly well to the old snow surface. There are still multiple weak layers. There are definitely pockets of slab that can avalanche. Wind transported snow drifting and building slabs is expected to continue through today and tomorrow. With cooler temperatures and a much lower snow accumulation rate Avalanche danger is considerable at this time. Currently in the urban areas down low there is very little to no snow. Backcountry slides could be larger especially in higher elevation areas. On the upper mountain, where snow loads are greater right now, there is amazing spatial variability. The snow is greatly different at every elevation due to our recent widely varying temperatures. The snow is also very different on every aspect due to heavy wind and lots of previous sun. The last few days new snow is starting to bond a little better to the snowpack in place. But there are still multiple weak layers to watch. In the last 48 hours we have added much more than a foot of new snow in windloaded areas. This new snow is sitting on mostly rotten snow from all the previous warm weather. The snowpack was near freezing and moisture saturated. During this cooler period we are in now the lower snowpack is draining off its free moisture and cooling slightly which will hopefully add to this base layers stability over time... But the base layers stability will remain questionable in areas for some time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-09

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LATE. BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Yesterdays feild results showed changing condition in the last 48 hours. Thursday temperatures got up to freezing and above in areas do to radiant heat with breif periods of sun in the morning. Late Thursday we received several inches of snow with moderate wind loading. Yesterday we received even greater amounts of snow and wind loading. Yesterdays field tests on Douglas Island near Eaglecrest as well as on showboat ridge showed this new snow was easily triggered on the melt formed layer from Thursday. Continued tests showed multiple weak layers. As the upper weak layer was triggered in tests quite often the failure propagated down to deeper layers of instability. Compression tests failed easily(3 test- on isolation, while cutting the back, and a CT3) with high quality shears (Q1) at 30cm and Extended Column Tests showed relatively easy failures (ECT 14) with propagation and moderate quality shears at 65cm. There are still multiple weak layers deeper in the pack that remain questionable as well. With yesterdays heavy snowfall and windloading rates, accompanied by a 5 degree temperature rise along the channel in the last 12 hours and with additional moisture in the forecast danger is Considerable at this time. Spatial variability remains high as we have seen quite a bit of wind in the last 10 days. There is great difference in snow density and deposition between windard, cross loaded, and leeward slopes. Areas in the backcountry are still quite hazardous at this time. Please use caution and choose your lines and routes wisely. Remember. Tranceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Don't leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-13

Sat, 13 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0900

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-14

Sun, 14 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. ACCUMULATION ABOUT 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 MPH. This mornings temperature on Mt Roberts is the warmest it has been in the last 14 days. With coninued moisture accumulation and as much as an additional 3 degrees of warming expected throughout the day today, avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today. Spatial variability remains high as we have seen quite a bit of wind in the last 10 days. There is great difference in snow density and deposition between windard, cross loaded, and leeward slopes. Many weak layers remain present in the snowpack even though they appear to be fairly well bonded and holding weight at this time. Many weak cornices and overhangs have developed during the last weeks snow and wind events. Consistant loading and warming can create cornice falls that can act as the trigger to release much larger slides. over the weekend shooting cracks, minor woomphing, sluffing avalanches in the steep areas, slabs breaking out on switchbacks of traverse trails were all noted. Areas in the backcountry are still quite hazardous at this time. Please use caution and choose your lines and routes wisely. Remember. Tranceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Don't leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-16

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. BECOMING WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 44. EAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Yesterday mornings temperature on Mt Roberts is the warmest it has been in the last 14 days. We received a bit of rain during this warm period. This morning we are seeing cooler temperatures and less moisture in the forecast models. I am lowering the avalanche danger to moderate at this time. Spatial variability remains high as we have seen quite a bit of wind in the last 10 days. There is great difference in snow density and deposition between windard, cross loaded, and leeward slopes. As well as the differences in the snow density caused by elevation and temperature. Many weak layers remain present in the snowpack even though they appear to be fairly well bonded and holding weight at this time. Many weak cornices and overhangs have developed during the last weeks snow and wind events. Consistant loading and warming can create cornice falls that can act as the trigger to release much larger slides. over the weekend shooting cracks, minor woomphing, sluffing avalanches in the steep areas, slabs breaking out on switchbacks of traverse trails were all noted. Areas in the backcountry are still quite hazardous at this time. Please use caution and choose your lines and routes wisely. Remember. Tranceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Don't leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-17

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 15 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Temperatures have been very close to freezing for several days and well over freezing at tram elevations 3 days ago. Since that time temperatures are below freexing again and are expected to remain that way in mountain starting zones for the next 24+ hours. This has helped the snowpack in place to settle and bond increasing the strength in the snowpack. We are continuing to see small amounts of snow that add to cornice instability and places snow on trees and rocks. During sunny periods these area often releive themselves. With not much warming, moisture, or wind in the forecast for today avalanche danger is low at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-18

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-19

Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Over last weekend we saw several days where the temps went well above freezing at tram elevations. Then on Tuesday we had a great day of sun. This has given most of the last 2 weeks new snow time to settle and bond. Temperatures are cooler now so the lower end of the snowpack is starting to stiffen up. Yesterday you could see trees and rocks dropping snow. In steep areas this caused lots of TINY class 1 avalanches. Class 1 activity is more like high.. But we are more concerned with the larger slides. During yesterdays field work I was able to observe a class 2 slide off the West Face on Mt Juneau leading down into Salmon Creek that was started by a cornice fall. This cornice fall point release, then propagated into a soft slab surface avalanche that was about 5" deep. This places a lot of stress on the rest of the snowpack. Often times if there was a greater deeper instability in the same area this would have pulled it out and shown us the deeper weakness was present. In long steep areas even these small wet slides can pile up quite a bit of snow. Snowpit tests in Upper East Bowl outside of the Eaglecrest Ski Area and on Showboat ridge showed multiple weak layers within the last 2 weeks snowpack. Compression tests released: CT9@55cm, ct17 at 95cm and ct24 at 155cm. All results were q1 shears. Extedned column tests did not support these results in the same area. All the lower layers were One Finger penetration to Pencil. Quite stiff. It appears it would talk a great deal to pull below the 5" new snow layer. Yet in the backcountry on super steep pitches, near cornices, or on convex slopes with the presence of a human trigger there is a little more concern. Yesterday afternoons field results from Mt Juneau were a little different. Mt Juneau receives direct sun. Mt Juneau often times has warmer temperatures from the upwelling along the channel. Snow pit tests showed a very uniform snowpack all the way down to the old snow in place from over 2 weeks ago now. We saw a CT 24 @ 120cm Q1 on a very prominant weak layer. You could then pick up the column and turn it sideways and shake it and it wouldnt break. I then dropped it onto my backpack and the column still didnt break. So this hard slab has developed into a quit stiff layer. It appears it would take a great deal of stress to fracture to this depth. If we saw tremendous warming or heavy rains it could start to raise concerns, yet things are quite stable at this time. Looking at Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts above Thane road you can see the great areas of accumulation from the heavy winds. In these areas the layer of weakness may be even deeper. These wind drifts and wind deposited slabs are a little harder to predict stability on, but all upper layers appear to be holding at the present time. With cool temperatures today, moderate winds and not much moisture avalanche danger remains low.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-20

Sat, 20 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 20 PERCENT. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 33. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. Over last weekend we saw several days where the temps went well above freezing at tram elevations. Then on Tuesday we had a great day of sun. This has given most of the last 2 weeks new snow time to settle and bond. Temperatures are cooler now so the lower end of the snowpack is starting to stiffen up. Thursday you could see trees, cornices and rocks dropping snow. In steep areas this caused lots of TINY class 1 avalanches. Class 1 activity is more like high.. But we are more concerned with the larger slides. During Thursdays field work I was able to observe a class 2 slide off the West Face on Mt Juneau leading down into Salmon Creek that was started by a cornice fall. This cornice fall point release, then propagated into a soft slab surface avalanche that was about 5" deep. This places a lot of stress on the rest of the snowpack. Often times if there was a greater deeper instability in the same area this would have pulled it out and shown us the deeper weakness was present. In long steep areas even these small wet slides can pile up quite a bit of snow. Snowpit tests in Upper East Bowl outside of the Eaglecrest Ski Area and on Showboat ridge Thursday showed multiple weak layers within the last 2 weeks snowpack. Compression tests released: CT9@55cm, ct17 at 95cm and ct24 at 155cm. All results were q1 shears. Extedned column tests did not support these results in the same area. All the lower layers were One Finger penetration to Pencil. Quite stiff. It appears it would talk a great deal to pull below the last 3 days new snow layer. Yet in the backcountry on super steep pitches, near cornices, or on convex slopes with the presence of a human trigger there is a little more concern. Thursday afternoons field results from Mt Juneau were a little different. Mt Juneau receives direct sun. Mt Juneau often times has warmer temperatures from the upwelling along the channel. Snow pit tests showed a very uniform snowpack all the way down to the old snow in place from over 2 weeks ago now. We saw a CT 24 @ 120cm Q1 on a very prominant weak layer. You could then pick up the column and turn it sideways and shake it and it wouldnt break. I then dropped it onto my backpack and the column still didnt break. So this hard slab has developed into a quit stiff layer. It appears it would take a great deal of stress to fracture to this depth. If we saw tremendous warming or heavy rains it could start to raise concerns, yet things are quite stable at this time. Looking at Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts above Thane road you can see the great areas of accumulation from the heavy winds. In these areas the layer of weakness may be even deeper. These wind drifts and wind deposited slabs are a little harder to predict stability on, but all upper layers appear to be holding at the present time. Yesterday we received several inches of new snow and moderate windloading. Near the summit pockets of instability exist. With cool temperatures today, moderate winds and not much moisture avalanche danger is moderate. With the presence of human triggers there is a possibility of avalanches in the backcountry.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-21

Sun, 21 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW LATE. RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Over last weekend we saw several days where the temps went well above freezing at tram elevations. Then on Tuesday we had a great day of sun. This has given most of the last 2 weeks new snow time to settle and bond. Temperatures are cooler now so the lower end of the snowpack is starting to stiffen up. With the exception of the new snow from the last few days. Thursday you could see trees, cornices and rocks dropping snow. During todays sun this is going to continue. In steep areas this caused lots of TINY class 1 avalanches. Class 1 activity is more like high.. But we are more concerned with the larger slides. During Thursdays field work I was able to observe a class 2 slide off the West Face on Mt Juneau leading down into Salmon Creek that was started by a cornice fall. This cornice fall point release, then propagated into a soft slab surface avalanche that was about 5" deep. This places a lot of stress on the rest of the snowpack. Often times if there was a greater deeper instability in the same area this would have pulled it out and shown us the deeper weakness was present. In long steep areas even these small wet slides can pile up quite a bit of snow. Yesterday above the Flume Train in the Chop Gulley avalanche area you could see more of this activity. Snowpit tests in Upper East Bowl outside of the Eaglecrest Ski Area and on Showboat ridge Thursday showed multiple weak layers within the last 2 weeks snowpack. Compression tests released: CT9@55cm, ct17 at 95cm and ct24 at 155cm. All results were q1 shears. Extedned column tests did not support these results in the same area. All the lower layers were One Finger penetration to Pencil. Quite stiff. It appears it would talk a great deal to pull below the last 4 days new snow layers. Yet in the backcountry on super steep pitches, near cornices, or on convex slopes with the presence of a human trigger there is a little more concern. And wet slide activity will be seen during todays diurinal fluctuation(mid day warming from the radiant energy of the sun) Thursday afternoons field results from Mt Juneau were a little different. Mt Juneau receives direct sun. Mt Juneau often times has warmer temperatures from the upwelling along the channel. Snow pit tests showed a very uniform snowpack all the way down to the old snow in place from over 2 weeks ago now. We saw a CT 24 @ 120cm Q1 on a very prominant weak layer. You could then pick up the column and turn it sideways and shake it and it wouldnt break. I then dropped it onto my backpack and the column still didnt break. So this hard slab has developed into a quit stiff layer. It appears it would take a great deal of stress to fracture to this depth. If we saw tremendous warming or heavy rains it could start to raise concerns, yet things are quite stable at this time. Looking at Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts above Thane road you can see the great areas of accumulation from the heavy winds. In these areas the layer of weakness may be even deeper. These wind drifts and wind deposited slabs are a little harder to predict stability on, but all upper layers appear to be holding at the present time. Friday we received several inches of new snow and moderate windloading. Near the summit pockets of instability exist. With cool temperatures today, moderate winds and not much moisture avalanche danger is moderate. With the presence of human triggers there is a possibility of avalanches in the backcountry.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-23

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES, HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. It looks as though we are going to see a gentle warming trend during the next 36 hours. This warming trend will be accompanied by moderate transport winds and new snow. Tonights danger is moderate with the heavy precip received today and expected into tomorrow.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-24

Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE. AREAS OF FOG LATE. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 80 PERCENT. THURSDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS. We received serveral inches of snow yesterday at upper mountain elevations. This snow was accompanied by strong windloading, placing additional snow and stress in wind drifted areas. During this snow event temperatures have risen by several degrees. This places heavy dense snow over looser lighter snow. Which adds to the instability. Yesterday in areas around Eaglecrest avalanches were very easily skier triggered and once triggered propagated widely. This is a sign that the slopes are nearing a natural state of instability. With increased warm temps and precipitation continuing today the possibility of avalanches occuring naturally is high.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-25

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures are cooler today and this has helped to solidify some of the snowpack in place. During today is we see much sun you will see trees, rocks, and cornices dropping snow. This can often create point release avalanches. In longer steeper, more open areas this can create larger avalanches.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-26

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. SATURDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 43. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. With the cooler temperatures in place and not much new snow in the last 24 hours avalanche danger is low at this time. As we go into tomorrow look to see the danger levels rise as the temperatures rise and the precipitation rates increase.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-27

Sat, 27 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BECOMING WINDY. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY...RAIN...WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. With several inches of snow in the last 24 hours up high accompanied by warming, crossloading winds, and continued precipitation avalanche danger is high at this time. During the next 24 to 48 hours we will see heavy precipitation at times, accompanied by 5+ degree warming trend. Slide sizes will continue to increase as well until/unless warming turns the precipitation to the form of rain.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-28

Sun, 28 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 47. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 45. EAST WIND 15 MPH. With close to a foot of snow in the last 48 hours up high accompanied by very strong crossloading winds, several degrees of warming throughout today and continued precipitation avalanche danger is high at this time. Slide sizes will continue to increase as well until/unless warming turns the precipitation to the form of rain.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-29

Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS 30 TO 35. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. With not much new snow in the last 48 hours... and low precipitation rates today avalanche danger is moderate at this time. If temps should rise into the upper 30's at tram elevation or if we get a substantial amount more precipitation than anticipated danger levels could rise throughout the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-03-30

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 80 PERCENT. THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 41. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. We have seen above freezing temperatures at the Mt Roberts Tram elevation for most of the last 4 days yet temperatures are below freezing at this time. With above freezing temperatures and rain we are tearing down the bonds in the snowpack that are holding it firmly in place like a big block of ice. The longer this warm weather persists the deeper in the snowpack the temperature and rain saturation penetrate and weaken it. Saturday night during the heavy rains a small avalanche came down on Thane road showing us the presence of a deeper weak layer in areas. This weak layers still exixts on areas of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau as well. It could be more easily triggered during periods of heavy rain yet danger remains present as long as Tram temperatures stay above freezing. With not much rain or warming in the forecast today avalanche danger is moderate.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-01

Thu, 01 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 42. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 43. EAST WIND 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. With several inches of new snow in the last 24 hours up high accompanied by todays warmer temperatures natural avalanches are possible which places todays danger at Considerable. Slides would likely not be large yet small surface sluffs are possible in places. In steep open areas this has the potential to accumulate quite a bit more snow during the slide. If we should see much direct sunlight or heavy rains the danger level may rise.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-02

Fri, 02 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTH WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. With fairly cool temperatures yesterday and several warm days previous the snow has seen quite a bit of settlement and consolidation and is now fairly stable in place. Today will see warmer temperatures and some rain creating moderate avalanche danger for smaller slides.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-03

Sat, 03 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 70 PERCENT. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. SUNDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 43. LIGHT WINDS. With near freezing temperatures and very little moisture in the forecast for the day avalanche danger is moderate at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-04

Sun, 04 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 15 MPH. MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 44. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. With several inches of new snow up high in the last sevaral days and more precipitation expected today avalanche danger is moderate. Slides are not predicted to be large. Mostly new snow sliding off the old hard snow in place.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-05

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 48. EAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LATE. LOWS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTH WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. With not much new snow in the last few days and very little precipitation in the forecast avalanche danger is moderate at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-06

Tue, 06 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, RAIN, BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTH WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 24 TO 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. With very little new snow in the last week and not much new predicted in the forecast today avalanche danger is moderate at this time. This new snow up high will be accompanied by loading winds that will start to change the danger levels a bit if much snow accumulates in windloaded areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-07

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. UP TO 2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 43. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. With the cooler temperatures in place for the last 2 days the base layers of the snowpack are failry stable at this time. We have received several inches of snow up high over the last several days. We also received some moderate windloading during the early part of the snows. Avalanche danger is moderate at this time and may raise into tomorrow as temperatures start to warm up a bit. Danger levels in the backcountry may be more at the considerable level due to the presence of human triggers.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-08

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 43. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS AROUND 27. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. We have received nearly a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations in the last several days. With direct sunlight and warming this am avalanche danger is considerable at this time. Look to see snow falling off of trees, rocks, and cornices falling as well. This has the ability to start point release avalanches. In steep open areas these relatively small slides have the ability to gather quite a bit of mass and momentum. Look to see quite a few size 1 slides if the sun holds out long throughout the day. In areas with windloading and in pockets of additional mass larger class 2 slides are possible. With the presence of Human Triggers backcountry danger is questionably high in areas. Be sure to make good decisions and remember danger levels grow during the later heat of the day as the sun becomes more overhead and has more effect. Remember, Partner, Probe, Avalanche Tranceiver, Shovel. Dont leave home without them!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-09

Fri, 09 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 43. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 26. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 48. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. We have received nearly a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations in the last several days. Yesterdays direct sunlight in the morning and partial sun in the afternoon accompanied by the diurnal fluctuation (day time warming do to the sun). Created quite a few point release size 1 slides along the Face of Mt Roberts and on Mt Juneau. At 1pm as I was walking to lunch in downtown I notes a size 2 slide coming down Chop Gully on the town side of Mt Juneau. It looked like a very large all white waterfall for about 3 minutes. Impressive and fun to watch! Larger slides like this can develope in open, steeper locations with longer slide paths. Look to see snow falling off of trees, rocks, and cornices as well. This has the ability to start point release avalanches. In steep open areas these relatively small slides have the ability to gather quite a bit of mass and momentum. Look to see quite a few size 1 slides if the sun holds out long throughout the day. In areas with windloading and in pockets of additional mass larger class 2 slides are possible. With the presence of Human Triggers backcountry danger is questionably high in areas. Be sure to make good decisions and remember danger levels grow during the later heat of the day as the sun becomes more overhead and has more effect. Remember, Partner, Probe, Avalanche Tranceiver, Shovel. Dont leave home without them!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-10

Sat, 10 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 22 TO 28. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE. SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 15 MPH. We have received nearly a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations in the last week. Yesterdays direct sunlight accompanied by the diurnal fluctuation (day time warming do to the sun). Created quite a few point release size 1 slides along the Face of Mt Roberts and on Mt Juneau. Returning midday in downtown I notes a size 2 slide coming down Chop Gully on the town side of Mt Juneau. It looked like a very large all white waterfall for about 3 minutes. Impressive and fun to watch! Larger slides like this can develope in open, steeper locations with longer slide paths. Look to see snow falling off of trees, rocks, and cornices as well. This has the ability to start point release avalanches. In steep open areas these relatively small slides have the ability to gather quite a bit of mass and momentum. Look to see quite a few size 1 slides if the sun holds out long throughout the day. In areas with windloading and in pockets of additional mass larger class 2 slides are possible. With the presence of Human Triggers backcountry danger is questionably high in areas. Be sure to make good decisions and remember danger levels grow during the later heat of the day as the sun becomes more overhead and has more effect. Remember, Partner, Probe, Avalanche Tranceiver, Shovel. Dont leave home without them!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-11

Sun, 11 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, SUNNY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 28. EAST WIND 15 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. We have received nearly a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations in the last week. The last 3 days direct sunlight accompanied by the diurnal fluctuation (day time warming do to the sun). Created quite a few point release size 1 slides along the Face of Mt Roberts and on Mt Juneau. Larger slides can develope in open, steeper locations with longer slide paths. Look to see snow falling off of trees, rocks, and cornices as well. This has the ability to start point release avalanches. In steep open areas these relatively small slides have the ability to gather quite a bit of mass and momentum. Look to see quite a few size 1 slides as the sun holds throughout the day. In areas with windloading and in pockets of additional mass larger class 2 slides are possible. With the presence of Human Triggers backcountry danger is questionably high in areas, especially during the later part of the day after the sun has had time to affect the snowpack. Be sure to make good decisions and remember danger levels grow during the later heat of the day as the sun becomes more overhead and has more effect. Remember, Partner, Probe, Avalanche Tranceiver, Shovel. Dont leave home without them!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-12

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 51. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTH WIND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. Yesterday brought the warmest temperatures we have seen for quite some time on the mountains. Overnight temperatures did not fall below freezing at elevation for very long. We have received nearly a foot of new snow at upper mountain elevations in the last week. The last 4 days direct sunlight accompanied by the diurnal fluctuation (day time warming do to the sun). Created quite a few point release size 1 slides along the Face of Mt Roberts and on Mt Juneau. Larger slides can develope in open, steeper locations with longer slide paths. Look to see snow falling off of trees, rocks, and cornices as well. This has the ability to start point release avalanches. In steep open areas these relatively small slides have the ability to gather quite a bit of mass and momentum. Look to see quite a few size 1 slides as the sun holds throughout the day. In areas with windloading and in pockets of additional mass larger class 2 slides are possible. With the presence of Human Triggers backcountry danger is questionably high in areas, especially during the later part of the day after the sun has had time to affect the snowpack. Be sure to make good decisions and remember danger levels grow during the later heat of the day as the sun becomes more overhead and has more effect. Remember, Partner, Probe, Avalanche Tranceiver, Shovel. Dont leave home without them!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-13

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTH WIND 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 47. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. With cooler temperatures in place this morning, accompanied with clouds and light rain, avalanche danger is low at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-14

Wed, 14 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 48. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 46. NORTH WIND 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. With warm spring temperatures in place and some rain in the forecast avalanche danger is moderate at this time. Do not expect to see any large slides. Yet rocky areas with shallow snowpack at mid mountain elevations may clean themselves off with the rains during this warm weather. We are running out of snow on the Channel faces of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau quite rapidly. Yet quite a bit (several meters)remains at ridge top elevations and for the first few hundred feet.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-15

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 52. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 35 TO 41. NORTHWEST WIND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 51. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. Yesterday afternoons temperatures were the warmest this month at upper mountain elevations. Last night temperatures did not fall below freezing. Today will see a great deal of direct sunlight and warm temperatures. Look to see snow cleaning off rocks in steep areas. Look to see cornices falling. In steeper open areas this has the potential to entrain quite a bit of snow mass. Most activity will be class 1 small slides, peeling the layers off of this seasons snow onion... one layer at a time... point release, surface avalanches. With mostly the snow that has melted and turned to slush on the surface. As temperatures rise and the nights do not cool nearly as much, the melting can go deeper and deeper into the snowpack. So what was a big block of ice starts to become a slurpee. If the snowpack can drain the runoff fast enough, the slurpee is out of liquid and becomes stiff... if the snowpack melts too rapidly and the moisture cannot drain it is like a very liquid slurpee... and as you know.. if you turn it on its side.. it will want to slide... The longer these really warm temps exist and nights stay warm the greater the concern becomes in those steep areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-16

Fri, 16 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY LATE. LOWS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. The last two afternoons temperatures were the warmest this month at upper mountain elevations. Last night temperatures did not fall below freezing on the upper reaches of the mountains locally. Today will see a fair amount of direct sunlight and quite warm temperatures. Look to see snow cleaning off rocks in steep areas. Look to see cornices falling. In steeper open areas this has the potential to entrain quite a bit of snow mass. Most activity will be class 1 small slides, peeling the layers off of this seasons snow onion... one layer at a time... point release, surface avalanches. With mostly the snow that has melted and turned to slush on the surface.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-04-20

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0800

Avalanche danger remains high during this warm spring weather and rain. All slides are expected to be small. We do not have much snow remaining in the urban avalanche paths of Mt Juneau. The forecast will be discontinued soon.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-05-03

Mon, 03 May 2010 00:00:00 -0800

With winter gone and snow mostly off the urban areas the avalanche forecast has been discontinued until December 1st, 2010. Thank you for a safe winter.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-01

Wed, 01 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AT TIMES. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY. LOWS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 29. BREEZY. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. We have received quite a bit of new snow up high in the last several days. Temperatures have been good but we are seeing a fair amount of wind transport that often leads to slab instability. Recent field work before this storm cycle showed sensative weak layers that were being easily triggered in places. This new snow may have triggered some natural avalanche activity already. But in places that have not seen activity there is a possibility the mousetrap has been set. With not much new snow in the forecast and temperatures holding or falling after today danger should remain moderate and is not predicted to rise greatly. We are seeing continued wind transport that needs to be taken into account and could create very sensative weak layers in places. It is still early season and we do not have a tremendous amount of snow yet so if avalanches were to occur we do not expect them to be of a size that would affect the urban areas of the city. Danger is Moderate in the Urban Avalanche Zones. This is partially due to the lack of a human trigger for the avalanche. Remember in the backcountry danger levels may be more Considerable as you add the trigger (YOU).

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-02

Thu, 02 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR JUNEAU DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. OTHERWISE... DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 27. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOWS 11 TO 21. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received quite a bit of new snow up high in the last several days. Temperatures have been good but we are seeing a fair amount of wind transport that often leads to slab instability. Recent field work showed sensative weak layers that were being easily triggered in places. This new snow may have triggered some natural avalanche activity already. But in places that have not seen activity there is a possibility the mousetrap has been set. With not much new snow in the forecast danger should remain moderate and is not predicted to rise. We are seeing continued wind transport that needs to be taken into account. This could create very sensative weak layers in places and even has the possibility to trigger natural avalanches. It is still early season and we do not have a tremendous amount of snow yet so if avalanches were to occur we do not expect them to be of a size that would affect the urban areas of the city. Danger is Moderate in the Urban Avalanche Zones. This is partially due to the lack of a human trigger for the avalanche. Remember in the backcountry danger levels may be more Considerable as you add the trigger (YOU).

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-03

Fri, 03 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 28. NORTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received quite a bit of new snow up high in the last week. Temperatures have been good but we are seeing a fair amount of wind transport that often leads to slab instability. Field work continues to show sensative weak layers that are being easily triggered in places. This new snow may have triggered some natural avalanche activity already. But in places that have not seen activity there is a possibility the mousetrap has been set. With not much new snow in the forecast danger should remain moderate and is not predicted to rise until the start of the heavier precip tomorrow. During tomorrow and Sundays event the temperatures are predicted to rise. This will start to place heavy, wet snow on top of looser lighter snow which will start to build a weaker snowpack on top of several weak layers already in place. This is often refered to as an upside down snowpack. We have seen continued wind transport that needs to be taken into account. This could create very sensative weak layers in places and even has the possibility to trigger natural avalanches. It is still early season and we do not have a tremendous amount of snow yet so if avalanches were to occur we do not expect them to be of a size that would affect the urban areas of the city. Danger is Moderate in the Urban Avalanche Zones. This is partially due to the lack of a human trigger for the avalanche. Remember in the backcountry danger levels may be more Considerable as you add the trigger (YOU).

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-04

Sat, 04 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...BREEZY. SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. We received quite a bit of new snow up high earlier in the week. Temperatures have been good. We have seen a fair amount of wind transport that often leads to slab instability. Field work continues to show sensative weak layers that are being easily triggered in places. There has been some limited natural avalanche activity already. But in places that have not seen activity there is a possibility the mousetrap has been set. At this time danger remains Moderate. Tomorrow and Sunday during the upcoming event the temperatures are predicted to rise. This will start to place heavy, wet snow on top of looser lighter snow which will start to build a weaker snowpack on top of several weak layers already in place. This is often refered to as an upside down snowpack. Danger levels may rise to Considerable as the temperatures warm up to and through freezing. We have seen continued wind transport that needs to be taken into account. This could create very sensative weak layers in places and even has the possibility to trigger natural avalanches. It is still early season and we do not have a tremendous amount of snow yet in the starting zones. Yesterdays Mt Juneau field work showed between 100cm-165cm in our urban starting zones. If avalanches were to occur we would not expect them to be of a size that would affect the urban areas of the city. Danger is Moderate in the Urban Avalanche Zones at this time. This is partially due to the lack of a human trigger for the avalanche. Remember in the backcountry danger levels may be more Considerable as you add the avalanche trigger (YOU).

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-05

Sun, 05 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...BREEZY. RAIN DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. LOWS 26 TO 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received quite a bit of new snow up high earlier in the week that came in cold and dry. Temperatures were low at that time. Yesterday at upper elevations we received a fair amount of heavier wetter snow. This placed heavy, wet snow on top of looser lighter snow which will start to build a weaker snowpack on top of several weak layers already in place. This is often refered to as an upside down snowpack. At lower elevations we saw quite a bit of rain that erodes the bonds between the snow crystals. We have also seen a fair amount of wind transport that often leads to slab instability. Field work continues to show sensative weak layers that are being easily triggered in places. There is a weak layer from over a week ago down deep in the pack as well as another weak layer from yesterday up higher in the snowpack. There has been some limited natural avalanche activity already. In places that have not seen activity there is a possibility the mousetrap has been set. At this time danger is Considerable yet slides large enough to effect the urban areas are not expected do to the low volumes on snow on the hill currently in place. It is still early season and we do not have a tremendous amount of snow in the starting zones. Fridays Mt Juneau field work showed between 100cm-165cm in our urban starting zones. We have seen continued wind transport that needs to be taken into account. This could create very sensative weak layers in places and has the ability to trigger natural avalanches. Danger is Considerable in the Urban Avalanche Zones at this time. This is partially due to the lack of a human trigger for the avalanche. Remember in the backcountry danger levels may be higher as you add the avalanche trigger (YOU).

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-06

Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMING LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 26 TO 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With the last few days of warm weather and either rain or heavy dense snow the snowpack has bonded quite a bit. Cooler temperatures are in place today and not much new precip is expected. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them has started to bridge over them for the time being. With very little snow and the lack triggers in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Yesterdays feild work showed weak layers but tests proved to be nonsupportive of one another. Some tests showd a weakness and the ability of the snowpack to fail. Yet other tests showed more stability in the pack and were non supportive of the original tests. Please be aware that there are multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-07

Tue, 07 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 23 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 32. BREEZY. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. With the last few days of warm weather and either rain or heavy dense snow the snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. Cooler temperatures are in place today and not much new precip is expected. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them has started to bridge over them for the time being. With very little snow and the lack triggers in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Recent feild work showed weak layers but tests proved to be unsupportive of one another. Some tests showd a weakness and the ability of the snowpack to fail. Yet other tests showed more stability in the pack and were unsupportive of the original tests. Please be aware that there are multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-08

Wed, 08 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WIND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 16 TO 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 27 TO 33. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. With this last weeks warm weather and either rain or heavy dense snow from over the weekend the snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. Cooler temperatures are in place today and not much new precipitation is expected. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them has started to bridge over them for the time being. With very little snow on Mt Juneau and the lack triggers in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Recent field work showed weak layers but tests proved to be unsupportive of one another. Some tests showed a weakness and the ability of the snowpack to fail. Yet other tests showed more stability in the pack and were unsupportive of the original tests. Please be aware that there are multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-10

Fri, 10 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 23. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS 29 TO 35. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With this last weeks warm weather, the rain and heavy dense snow from over the weekend the snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. Cooler temperatures are in place today. Not much new precipitation is expected. Yet look to see wind loading as the new snow deposits come in accompanied by winds. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on this already weak layer. With very little snow on Mt Juneau and the lack of triggers in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-11

Sat, 11 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 23 TO 29. EAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With this last weeks warm weather, the rain and heavy dense snow from over last weekend the snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on this already weak layer. With several inches of new snow in the forecast look to see wind loading as the new snow deposits come in accompanied by winds of 10+ MPH throughout the cycle. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Look to see danger levels rise as the snow deposits deepen throughout the next 24 hour storm cycle. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher especially as this new snow comes in with the wind loading.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-12

Sun, 12 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 22 TO 30. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With this last weeks warm weather, the rain and heavy dense snow from over last weekend the snowpack had settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on this already weak layer. With several inches of new snow deposited yesterday, during a period where temperatures came up by an average of 5 degrees, additional weakness has been placed in the snowpack. Look to see areas of wind loading as the snow deposits came in accompanied by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the cycle. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher especially as this new snow comes in with the wind loading.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-13

Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS 26 TO 32. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 17 TO 25. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With this last 10 days warm weather, the rain and heavy dense snow from two weekends ago, the snowpack had settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday. This new snow came in during a period where temperatures came up by an average of 5 degrees and there was moderate wind loading. This has placed additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the new snow deposits come in accompanied by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of this coming cycle. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher. Especially as this new snow comes in with the wind loading on the questionable weak layers already in place.. Not much snow has accumulated so far in this most recent storm. Forecaster's confidence in the amount of precip is low. But look to see danger levels rise even faster if this new snow starts to add up.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-14

Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 14 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY...LOCALLY BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...LOCALLY BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 11 TO 21. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With the warm weather from 10 days ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the snowpack had settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers further down in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and yesterday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-15

Wed, 15 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS 24 TO 30. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS 13 TO 19. EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 11 TO 19. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With the warm weather from 10 days ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-16

Thu, 16 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS 25 TO 33. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 12 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 12 TO 18. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With the warm weather from 10 days ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. We are seeing a reduction in the loose snow available for transport as these winds continue. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-17

Fri, 17 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 19 TO 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS,NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE MORNING. DECREASING TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 12 TO 20. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 15. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With the warm weather from 12 days ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. We are seeing a reduction in the loose snow available for transport as these winds continue. Yesterday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted as recently as yesterday. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-18

Sat, 18 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 19 TO 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 20...EXCEPT AROUND ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...DIMINISHING LATE. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-19

Sun, 19 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...WINDY. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. ELSEWHERE, NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 20...EXCEPT AROUND ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS DIMINISHING LATE. ELSEWHERE...WIND NORTHEAST 10 MPH. MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 10 TO 18. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-20

Mon, 20 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ALONG TAKU INLET IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 10 TO 18. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 14 TO 20. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-21

Tue, 21 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 21. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS 22 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently. Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn�t a problem until the next significant snowfall. Caution- When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15°F (-10°C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a layer that fails with the next load of new snow. Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-22

Wed, 22 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 14 TO 24. EAST WIND TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Last Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently. Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn�t a problem until the next significant snowfall. Caution- When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15°F (-10°C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a layer that fails with the next load of new snow. Please remember this is not a Backcountry Forecast- Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-23

Thu, 23 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 27 TO 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 28...RANGING TO AROUND 8 IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 22 TO 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 17 TO 27. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. If we are lucky we will see just enough new snow to help Santa's sleigh ride! With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. Last Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn�t a problem until the next significant snowfall. When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15°F (-10°C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a weak layer that fails with the next load of new snow. Please remember this is not a Backcountry Forecast- Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-24

Fri, 24 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

This is my favorite forecast of the year... as I know Santa is checking out conditions for his big deliveries tonight. Welcome to Juneau Santa... Conditions are just fine... If I may request... All I want for Christmas is snow... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 23. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 18 TO 26. EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. CHRISTMAS DAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS 27 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. LOWS 25 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. Things should be interesting to watch as the new snow comes in and starts to accumulate. Currently there is much spatial variability in the snowpack. Some areas have been wind scoured and do not have much snow in place or surface hoar. Some places have windloaded pockets sitting on multiple weak layers that currently are fairly supportive yet may start to fail under the presence of new snow load. And last but not least some areas of the backcountry that have seen less wind have a fair amount of surface hoar that may not be too supportive of the new snow loads as they start to accumulate. With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit. There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading. Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place and new snow is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds. Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn�t a problem until the next significant snowfall. When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15°F (-10°C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a weak layer that fails with the next load of new snow. (We have seen a fair amount of these conditions this fall. Be aware that weakness in the snowpack this year my be further down than simply reactive surface layers. Make sure you are taking a good look at conditions in your favorite backcountry areas) Please remember this is not a Backcountry Forecast- Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-25

Sat, 25 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 29. EAST WIND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...LOCALLY BREEZY. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 27. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS 21 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 30 TO 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Thank you Santa for the white Christmas. Its all I wanted! With a little new snow yesterday and more expected in the forecast for today and tonight avalanche danger will rise a little. This new snow is coming in with some moderate windloading. This new snow and wind deposits will be sitting on a fairly consolidated base but there are still multiple weak layers in place. There are surface and near surface faceted crystals in places from the last 2 weeks dry cold weather. As this new snow load accumulates watch to see if these prominant weak layers become reactive. Do to the last 2 weeks high winds the terrain conditions will vary greatly. Use caution.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-26

Sun, 26 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS AROUND 27. EAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 20 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With very little snow in the forecast Avalanche Danger will remain low at this time. The precipitation rate has given the snowpack time to settle and bond as it has come in. Windloading could start to affect danger levels. As pockets of loading develop danger level could rise in those affected areas. Please remember this not a backcountry forecast, it is for the urban areas. These areas do not have the presence of human triggers to start the avalanche. In areas of the backcountry remember danger levels could be higher as you add the trigger(YOU)!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-27

Mon, 27 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS 30 TO 36. EAST WIND TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 21 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...COLDER. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 16 TO 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. The next few days should start to get interesting. We have not received much new snow yet. Most of what we have received has had time to settle and bond. Yet in areas where surface hoar exists this bond will be more questionable. Depending on how fast this new snow comes in and at what temperatures will determine if our danger levels rise and how much. Slow accumulation with very warm temps. Stability should remain fair. Rapid accumulations, large volumes, warming temps, and wind. Danger levels will rise. Please be aware during the next few days of new snow conditions could change from hour to hour as things start to stack up(I HOPE). Please be aware this is not a backcountry forecast.

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-28

Tue, 28 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS 29 TO 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 12 TO 22. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received several new inches of snow overnight. This is laying on top of several inches of snow from the last 2 days. During the last 24 hours temps have fallen slightly. This is a good sign for stability. Mid day today should show the warmest temps for the week and as this evenings temps start to drop back down we should see added stability. But during the warmest part of today there is still concern. In the urban avalanche starting zones the wind effect has been limited. There is more windloading in the backcountry starting zones on Douglas Island than on the Mt Juneau Paths. This windloading in places has placed additional weight load on slopes that have now seen much new snow in quite some time. Before the new snow storms there were still several weak layers present in the snowpack. From the earth surface all the way up to the snowpacks surface. The snowpack is still quite shallow in places. Also during our period of clear cold weather we noticed some faceting in weak layers throughout the snowpack. As new load is added via new snow and windload be cautious as it is unclear how the weak layers in place will support new snow load at this time. Avalanche Danger is low at this time in the Urban Avalanche Zones. Be cautious in the backcountry as you enter windloaded areas. Be cautious in steeper terrain where snow will want to sluff off to releive itself. Be looking for the presence of wind affect and soft slabs forming in places near ridgeline. Great day to remember the basics. Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Dont leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-29

Wed, 29 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 25 TO 28. EAST WIND TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 19 TO 22. EAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS 28 TO 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received several new inches of snow yesterday. This is laying on top of several inches of snow from the previous 2 days. During the last 48 hours temps have fallen slightly overall. This is a good trend for stability. There has been isolated windloading in areas near ridgetop and summits. This windloading in places has placed additional weight load on slopes that have not seen much new snow in quite some time. Before the new snow storms there were still several weak layers present in the snowpack. From the earth surface all the way up to the snowpacks surface. The snowpack is still quite shallow in places, yet the snowpack is becoming quite deep in areas near ridge top and in isolated crossloaded areas.. During our period of clear cold weather some faceting was noticed in weak layers throughout the snowpack yet there is quite a bit of spatial variability at this time. As new load is added via new snow and windload be cautious as it is unclear how the weak layers in place will support new snow load at this time. Currently they are holding load well but as Fridays expected precip arrives, continue to monitor these lower layers for stability. Avalanche Danger is Moderate at this time in the Urban Avalanche Zones. Natural Avalanches are Unlikely. Yet Human Triggered Avalanches are Possible. Be cautious in the backcountry as you enter windloaded areas. Be cautious in steeper terrain where snow will want to sluff off to releive itself. Yesterday some natural sluffing activity was spotted on the Thane road starting zones. This helps relieve stress and load in steep unanchored areas. Yet many areas of instability still exist. Be looking for the presence of wind affect and slabs forming in places near ridgeline as well as other wind affected areas. Great day to remember the basics. Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, Partner. Dont leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-30

Thu, 30 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 28. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1100 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS 30 TO 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Two days ago we received several inches of new snow that is sitting on a couple of previous weak layers. There had been some windloading and yet yesterday danger levels were moderate. Human triggered avalanches were possible but natural avalanches were not expected. Temperatures have risen over 2 degrees in the last 24 hours and are expected to continue to rise through the next 24. Winds have ranged from 10-25 for the last 2 days. Today danger levels will rise to CONSIDERABLE as several inches of new snow comes in during a warming temperature trend accompanied by windloading. During today and into tomorrow temperatures will continue to rise and continued wind and precip is expected. Here are 3 of the 5 signs of direct avalanche instability. Considerable simply states- Human Triggered Avalanches are likely and Natural Avalanche Releases are Possible. This danger level could rise to high during the day today and/or into the day tomorrow. A lot depends on how quickly conditions warm up, how much wind effect the snowpack see's, how much precipitation we receive and at what rate. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Danger levels in the backcountry could be higher in places!

Avalanche Advisory for 2010-12-31

Fri, 31 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 200 FEET RISING TO 1500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEW YEARS DAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS. We received quite a bit of new snow in the last few days. Over a foot on several weather stations around town. We received .8" of moisture in the last 24 hours in the urban path areas. This is a orange flag indicator as to the loading rate. The winds have averaged above 10 mph for over 36 hours on Mt Roberts, with long periods in the 20's and into the 30's. Winds have averaged above 25mph during that same time on Douglas Island with gusts well into the 40's. These are red flag indicators of windloading. Temperatures have risen an average of 8 degrees during the last 36 hours. Accompanied by the heavy snow and winds this is another red flag indicator of direct action avalanche conditions. Yesterday some slabs were pulling loose and pockets of instability were easily skier triggered. Shooting cracks were evident in places and the snowpack sounded hollow walking through deeper wind drifts. This is #4 of the 5 red flag indicators for direct action avalanches. The last indicator for direct action avalanches is simply viewing recent avalanches. As daylight comes on today it will be interesting to see if we see much in the way of natural avalanching currently. Todays moisture models were lowered. Last night we did not receive nearly as much moisture as predicted. So although we are seeing 4 of the 5 red flag indicators it may take a little longer to go into a natural cycle. Todays temperatures are predicted to rise to 37 at sea level with as much as .31 inches of moisture throughout the day. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to rise to 39 with as much as .81 inches of moisture. We should start to see natural avalanche activity already but in the next 2 days the slopes will have a great deal of additional stress placed on them. Although much of the snow this season has been light and simply blown off the faces of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau, this is quite deceiving. There are several natural gullies and ridges on the slopes. These features gather snow with up channel winds in the form of cross loading. So in most areas there is only 1 to 2 feet of snow, yet in these loaded areas the possibility exists for snow depths in excess of 10'. As the rain line rises through the elevations watch to see additional activity as the rain places stress on an already weak snowpack. If the rain line stays high and heavy rains persist for longer periods of time the possibility exists for the water running down the hill to simply undercut the snow and release if from steep rocky faces and areas with fewer anchors. DOT will be shooting Thane Road this morning to see if they can pull down some of the deeper weak layers of instability we have seen through the early part of the season. The goal is to releive the stress in the snowpack during a time when the road is closed and access in controlled. We may or may not see large slides. But the reality is simply shooting the slope faces will impact the weak layers and help to build long term stability in the snowpack for later in the season. Thats not to say it still could not avalanche. But the goal is to reduce the depth and size of that avalanche should it occur during non controlled times. Avalanches today are not expected to he huge. Yet in longer steeper slopes quite a bit of snow could move. Extreme caution is recommended anyplace in the backcountry over the next 48 hours. AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-01

Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING ABOVE 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS 31 TO 36. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received .71" of moisture in the last 24 hours and at 1800 feet during that time we received around 5 inches of snow. Densities during last weeks storm came in at as low as 4%. Densities yesterday are well over 10%. As you can imagine putting this heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snow has placed a lot of stress in the snowpack. We have been quite warm for 3 days now. Temperatures fell slightly in the last 24 hours but are predicted to rise again this afternoon. Winds have been high and ridgetop windloading is still occuring. With nearly steady temperatures and moisture rates slowing today combined with the fact that the snowpack has had time to settle and bond quite a bit danger levels have been lowered to Considerable. Considerable states- Natural Avalanches are possible and Human Triggered Avalanches are Likely Use great caution in the Backcountry as large areas of instability still exist.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-02

Sun, 02 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have risen only about 1 degree in the last 24 hours. We received 12mm of precipitation on the tram weather station at 1800' and lost 3cm of snow. As you can see we are still placing additional load on a weak and rapidly settling snowpack. Moisture rates have been low for the last 2 days and are expected to remain low for the next two days. This is a good thing. Slow precip can be absorbed and the snowpack settles. Rapid precip has a tendency to grease up the snowpack and can add too much stress too rapidly for the snowpack to absorb. Temperatures are expected to remain steady for the next 2 days. As long as moisture rates remain low danger levels will slowly start to fall. In areas near summit that are still receiving new snow and windloading human triggered avalanches are still likely in places. Natural avalanches are still possible as we continue to see warming and windload near summit. Todays Avalanche Danger remains Considerable. Please use caution in the backcountry. Make effort to avoid heavily windloaded steep open slopes near summit elevations. Tuesdays temperatures are predicted to rise by another 4 degrees. During that time we are expecting as much as 1.32" of rain. Look to see danger levels rise once again during that period of warming up through summit elevations accompanied by heavy rains.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-03

Mon, 03 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. At this time we have had quite warm and consistent temperatures for a period of several days. During that time we have received a fair amount of rain. At summit elevations this has resulted in a little new snow. Overall snow depths have been going down at all elevations even with new snow added. This is due to the rapid settlement and consolidation in the snowpack which long term is a good thing. Most of the lower snowpack has had time to not only settle and bond but to create drainage channels through the snowpack to be able to shed the rain runoff. With temperatures fairly stable for the next 24 hours and not much precip in the forecast danger levels are Moderate at this time. Danger levels may be higher near windloaded ridgetops in areas that have seen less rain and more snow. The possibility of human triggered avalanches is higher than the natural avalanches we might see in the urban paths. Look to see danger levels rise again tomorrow as we warm up a little more during a period where we may receive as much as 1" of precipitation. Slow precipitation rates allow the snowpack to settle and drain the runoff. Rapid precipitation greases the snowpack by adding free moisture at a rate to rapid to allow for drainage.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-04

Tue, 04 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY NORTH OF JUNEAU. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE MORNING...RISING TO 1000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We received 25mm of precipitation at the Mt Robert Tram Summit Weather Station in the last 24 hours. During that time temperatures only dipped below freezing for about 2 1/2 hours at that elevation just after midnight last night. We received 7cm of new snow at Tram Summit Level during last nights cold. Eaglecrests UAS Snow Study Plot received 12cm of new snow during last nights cooler weather. Todays temperatures at the tram summit, Sheep Mountain, and Eaglecrest are the warmest they have been since December 7th. Eaglecrest summit currently is the only weather station in the region showing freezing temperatures. I do not expect this to last throughout the day. As temperatures rise above freezing on Douglas Island Summits Danger levels will peak. We are predicted to receive nearly 3/4 of an inch of precipitation in the next 24 hours. Most of which should be as rain today adding a lot of stress to the snowpack at the upper elevations as they are seeing the warmest temperatures in some time and this rain loading. AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME Temperatures will be lowering overnight and we will start to see some increased stability at upper elevations tomorrow and into the next day as temperatures continue to fall.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-05

Wed, 05 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING THEN REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY FROM TAKU INLET NORTH. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 20 TO 28. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With slightly cooler temperatures today and a diminished precipitation rate the avalanche danger is Considerable at this time. We have seen quite a bit of rain, warm temperatures, snowpack settlement and consolidation. Long term this will help to solidify and stabilize the snowpack. Most of the moisture received at lower elevations has come in as rain. The snowpack on the lower mountain is wet and isothermal at 0degrees. In steep unanchored areas slides are still possible until temps drop back down below freezing. If slides were to occur then could entrain quite a bit of mass and clean out the snow all the way down to the earths surface. On the upper mountains we have still been seeing a little new snow. This has come in quite wet and will bond fairly well. Some of the snowpack may still be upside down with heavy dense snow above looser lighter snow which can lead to dangerous conditions. This is perhaps only evident at the upper elevations of our region and may not be nearly as present in the urban avalanche zones. The upper mountain reaches received a little new snow in the last 48 hours. Do to loading rates in the last 48 hours some deeper windloaded areas may still need a little time to settle and bond. But most of this snow has come in so wet it simply pasted into the mountainside and densities are high. Be aware much of the snowpack is still isothermal and wet at this time. If any new snow avalanches were to start up high they could propagate down into the deeper wet layers in place. With a great deal of the lower elevation snows wet and at the freezing point if slides were to release they could entrain quite a bit of mass as they got down lower in the glide track. Time is our friend at this point. Temperatures are falling across the region and will continue to fall into tomorrow. The snowpack at near freezing has settled and bonded quite a bit but with temperatures above freezing we have removed quite a bit of the glue holding the snowpack together. As temperatures begin to fall the glue will return and the snowpack will start to turn into a large consolidated block of ice. If you are heading out into the backcountry in the next 48 hours please use caution as conditions are quite variable at different elevations. Yesterday natural avalanches were sighted throughout the region from Snettisham to Kensington. Those conditions still exist today although loading rates and winds have diminished.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-06

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY...COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. With slightly cooler temperatures today and a diminished precipitation rate the avalanche danger is Considerable at this time. Natural Avalanche Are still Possible, and Human Triggered Avalanches are still likely in places. But danger levels are lowering. We have seen quite a bit of rain, warm temperatures, snowpack settlement and consolidation. Long term this will help to solidify and stabilize the snowpack. Most of the moisture received at lower elevations has come in as rain. The snowpack on the lower mountain is wet and isothermal at 0 degrees. In steep unanchored areas slides are still possible until temps drop back down below freezing. If slides were to occur then could entrain quite a bit of mass and clean out the snow all the way down to the earths surface. On the upper mountains we have still been seeing a little new snow. Approx. 4" in the last 24 hours from 1800' up and possibly more at higher elevations as some of the rain at 1800 may have been received as snow. This has come in quite wet and will bond fairly well. Do to wind loading in the last 72 hours some deeper windloaded areas of instability may exist at higher elevations near summit and still need a little time to settle and bond. But most of this snow has come in so wet it simply pasted into the mountainside and densities are high. Be aware much of the snowpack is still isothermal and wet at this time. If any new snow avalanches were to start up high they could propagate down into the deeper wet layers in place until they freeze back up. With a great deal of the lower elevation snows wet and at the freezing point if slides were to release they could entrain quite a bit of mass as they got down lower in the glide track. Time is our friend at this point. Temperatures are expected to fall across the region and will continue to fall into tomorrow and Saturday. The forecast for today is to have a freezing level of about 900' and yet currently it is hovering above 1800'. The snowpack at near freezing has settled and bonded quite a bit but with temperatures above freezing still down low we have removed quite a bit of the glue holding the snowpack together. As temperatures begin to fall the glue will return and the snowpack will start to turn into a large consolidated block of ice. If you are heading out into the backcountry in the next 24 hours please use caution as conditions are quite variable at different elevations. This week natural avalanches were sighted throughout the region from Snettisham to Kensington. Those conditions still exist today although loading rates and winds have diminished.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-07

Fri, 07 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY. LOWS 14 TO 22. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS DOWNTOWN. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 11 TO 21. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. We have received a few cm of new snow above 1800' each day for the last 3 days. Total accumulation for the last 3 days of about 15cm after some fairly rapid settlement. Higher accumulation totals are expected at upper elevations. The new snow is quite cohesive and bonding to itself. Yet it is has fallen on a weak layer generated by an interface between two storms. Yesterday Avalanche Activity was present both in Natural Slides and Man Made Slides. This wet new snow was sticking to very steep pitches and adding up in the trees. Many natural releases were sighted yesterday. The snow falling off of trees and steep faces continued to gather mass as it bulldozered down the mountainside. These were mostly wetter loose snow avalanches and slabs were not seen or propagating widely. This avalanche activity places a tremendous amount of stress on the snowpack below it. If deeper weak layers were present and easy to trigger this avalanche activity may have propagated down to those deeper weeker layers but it did not. So even though we have some surface instability this is a small clue that deeper week layers should hold at this time. With temperatures continuing to fall in the next 24 hours the weak surface layers in place should start to settle and bond quite well. With no precipitation in the forecast and very limited wind activity there will be little or no additional load placed on these weak layers in the near future. Some small windslabs may still exist at or near ridgline and summit. Danger levels are still considerable at this time but should fall to moderate in the next 24 hours or less. Remember the snowpack is still quite warm and has not refrozen at lower elevations. Be aware if your are hiking in the backcountry and you are still postholing deep in the pack through multiple upper layers the posibility of avalanches still exists until these wet layers freeze again and start to hold your weight.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-08

Sat, 08 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 30. VARIABLE MOSTLY NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST WIND DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 15. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 8 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received no new snow in the last 24 hours. Temperatures are cooling. We are receiving moderate windloading. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. Since January 1st at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station(1800ft) we have received 84mm of Precipitation. During that time we have only received 10cm of snow overall after settlement and consolidation. During this same time the Eaglecrest Summit has received over 40cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation. Only slightly lower on the hill the UAS snow study plot is only snowing 10cm of snow during that same period. This shows that conditions will vary greatly at slightly different elevations right now and we may have seen a little bit of windloading near summit elevations as well. Most of this precipitation came in the form of rain. In the last few days we have received a bit of snow on top of that rain saturated snowpack. Temperatures have fallen fairly consistantly over 5 degrees in the last 4 days. This has placed a strong snowpack on top of the rain saturated snow in place. With Cooler temperatures in place the lower snowpack is starting to freeze back to a fairly solid state. This new snow is acting as an insulator and the lower rain saturated snowpack takes a little longer to freeze with new snow on top of it acting as a blanket. There is still some free moisture lower in the snowpack. As this cool weather continues the lower snowpack will continue to gain strength. Be cautious of new snow windloading near the summits. Small pockets of instability may exist as well as new slabs may build during the current moderate windloading. Be cautious of steep open faces. During our last super heavy dense snowfall it tends to stick to and load up on the steeper pitches that often do not hold snow. These areas with lack of anchors may trigger more easily in an effort to releive the stress of the new snow. Small point release avalanches may be sighted as the sun warms the snow on the trees and rocks. As this snow falls off branches and rocky areas it may continue downhill starting surface point release loose snow avalanches. These slides are not expected to be very large. Yet in steep long open pitches a fair amount of mass may be accumulated. Be safe. Travel with Partners, Transceivers, Probes and Shovels. Choose safe lines. Ski One At A Time to Minimize Exposure. AND ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN JUNEAU!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-09

Sun, 09 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...CLEAR...WINDY. LOWS 11 TO 17. NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS. MONDAY...SUNNY. WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 9 TO 17. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. We have received no new snow in the last 48 hours. Temperatures are cooling. We are receiving moderate windloading. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. Since January 1st at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station(1800ft) we have received 84mm of Precipitation. During that time we have only received 10cm of snow overall after settlement and consolidation. During this same time the Eaglecrest Summit has received over 40cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation. Only slightly lower on the hill the UAS snow study plot is only snowing 10cm of snow during that same period. This shows that conditions will vary greatly at slightly different elevations right now and we may have seen a little bit of windloading near summit elevations as well. Most of this precipitation came in the form of rain. In the last few days we have received a bit of snow on top of that rain saturated snowpack. Temperatures have fallen fairly consistantly over 7 degrees in the last 5 days. This has placed a strong snowpack on top of the rain saturated snow in place. With Cooler temperatures in place the lower snowpack is starting to freeze back to a fairly solid state. This new snow is acting as an insulator and the lower rain saturated snowpack takes a little longer to freeze with new snow on top of it acting as a blanket. There is still some free moisture lower in the snowpack. As this cool weather continues the lower snowpack will continue to gain strength. Be cautious of new snow windloading near the summits. Small pockets of instability may exist as well as new slabs may build during the current moderate windloading. Be cautious of steep open faces. During our last super heavy dense snowfall it tends to stick to and load up on the steeper pitches that often do not hold snow. These areas with lack of anchors may trigger more easily in an effort to releive the stress of the new snow. Small point release avalanches may be sighted as the sun warms the snow on the trees and rocks. As this snow falls off branches and rocky areas it may continue downhill starting surface point release loose snow avalanches. These slides are not expected to be very large. Yet in steep long open pitches a fair amount of mass may be accumulated. Be safe. Travel with Partners, Transceivers, Probes and Shovels. Choose safe lines. Ski One At A Time to Minimize Exposure. AND ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN JUNEAU!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-10

Mon, 10 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 28. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 22. EAST WIND 15 MPH. TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 26. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY...COLDER. LOWS 7 TO 17. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH. We have received no new snow in the last 72 hours. Temperatures are cooling. We are receiving moderate windloading. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. Since January 1st at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station(1800ft) we have received 84mm of Precipitation. During that time we have only received 10cm of snow overall after settlement and consolidation. During this same time the Eaglecrest Summit has received over 40cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation. Only slightly lower on the hill the UAS snow study plot is only snowing 10cm of snow during that same period. This shows that conditions will vary greatly at slightly different elevations right now and we may have seen a little bit of windloading near summit elevations as well. Most of this precipitation came in the form of rain. In the last few days we have received a bit of snow on top of that rain saturated snowpack. Temperatures have fallen fairly consistantly over 8 degrees in the last 6 days. This has placed some colder loose snow on top of the rain saturated snow in place. With Cooler temperatures in place the lower snowpack is starting to freeze back to a fairly solid state. This new snow is acting as an insulator and the lower rain saturated snowpack takes a little longer to freeze with new snow on top of it acting as a blanket. As this cool weather continues the lower snowpack will continue to gain strength. Be cautious of new snow windloading near the summits. Small pockets of instability may exist as well as new slabs may build during the current moderate windloading. Yesterdays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation 2 days ago turned into hard slab deposits yesterday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and Extended column scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. Be cautious of steep open faces. During our last super heavy dense snowfall it tends to stick to and load up on the steeper pitches that often do not hold snow. These areas with lack of anchors may trigger more easily in an effort to releive the stress of the new snow. Small point release avalanches may be sighted as the sun warms the snow on the trees and rocks. As this snow falls off branches and rocky areas it may continue downhill starting surface point release loose snow avalanches. These slides are not expected to be very large. Yet in steep long open pitches a fair amount of mass may be accumulated. Be safe. Travel with Partners, Transceivers, Probes and Shovels. Choose safe lines. Ski One At A Time to Minimize Exposure. AND ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL WEEK IN JUNEAU!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-11

Tue, 11 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. BECOMING LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DEVELOPING NEAR INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 8 TO 18. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...AND DOUGLAS. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...AND DOUGLAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY...COLDER. LOWS 2 TO 13. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. We are receiving moderate windloading. Much of the light loose snow has been scoured off of the upper mountains. Yet hard windslabs have formed in more sheltered areas. Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation 3 days ago turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and Extended column scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. Since January 1st at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station(1800ft) we have received 84mm of Precipitation. During that time we have only received 10cm of snow overall after settlement and consolidation. During this same time the Eaglecrest Summit has received over 40cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation. Only slightly lower on the hill the UAS snow study plot is only snowing 10cm of snow during that same period. This shows that conditions will vary greatly at slightly different elevations right now and we may have seen a little bit of windloading near summit elevations as well. Most of this precipitation came in the form of rain. The last few days of precipitation we have received a bit of snow on top of that rain saturated snowpack. Temperatures have fallen fairly consistantly over 8 degrees in the last 7 days. This has placed some colder loose snow on top of the rain saturated snow in place. With Cooler temperatures in place the lower snowpack is starting to freeze back to a fairly solid state. As this cool weather continues the lower snowpack will continue to gain strength. Be cautious of new snow windloading near the summits. Small pockets of instability may exist as well as new slabs may build during the current moderate windloading. Slabs that may be hard to skier trigger could more easily be triggered by snowmobile. Be cautious of steep open faces. During our last super heavy dense snowfall it tends to stick to and load up on the steeper pitches that often do not hold snow. These areas with lack of anchors may trigger more easily in an effort to releive the stress of the new snow. Small point release avalanches may be sighted as the sun warms the snow on the trees and rocks. As this snow falls off branches and rocky areas it may continue downhill starting surface point release loose snow avalanches. These slides are not expected to be very large. Yet in steep long open pitches a fair amount of mass may be accumulated. Be safe. Travel with Partners, Transceivers, Probes and Shovels. Choose safe lines. Ski One At A Time to Minimize Exposure. AND ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL WEEK IN JUNEAU!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-12

Wed, 12 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. . NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 80 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 3 TO 11...EXCEPT AROUND 3 BELOW ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. LOCAL WIND CHILL 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. HIGHS 18 TO 24...EXCEPT AROUND 4 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY...COLDER. LOWS 3 BELOW TO 7 ABOVE ZERO. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 30 BELOW. Temperatures have dropped 4 degrees in the last 24 hours. We have seen sustained winds of 20-40 mph for the last 7+ hours. This wind has placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor in the last few hours. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading can place hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places. Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and Extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. This is not to say that natural avalanches could not happen. There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous. Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradiant and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls. Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion�s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow�or both. Luckily, temperature gradient metamorphism is completely reversible; when you take away the temperature gradient, the crystals start to metamorphose back into rounded, well-bonded grains.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-13

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. WINDY. HIGHS 6 TO 12. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 30 BELOW ZERO. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 4 BELOW TO 6 ABOVE ZERO... EXCEPT AROUND 6 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. EAST WIND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 35 BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY WINDY. HIGHS 3 TO 9. NORTHEAST WIND 40 MPH. GUSTS TO 60 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 40 BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. VERY WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 2 BELOW TO 6 ABOVE ZERO. NORTHEAST WIND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 35 BELOW ZERO. We are continuing to see winds and falling temperatures. This is continuing to place stress on the snowpack in any areas that are windloading. Areas on Douglas Island, Mt Roberts, and Mt Juneau will vary greatly now do to the high winds and wind directions. Some areas are seeing much more wind affect than others. We have seen winds averaging 10-20 for over 4 days and winds averaging over 20 for the last 24hours. Yesterday wind placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading can place hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places. Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. As these high winds continue the areas of windslab can grow as the depressions start to gather snow and level out to the terrain near them thus consuming even more area. Look to see the upper slopes of Mt Juneau leveling out and developing larger slabs as we continue to see wind deposits on the face. This direct loading on top of a weak layer in place continues to raise concern. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. This is not to say that natural avalanches could not happen. There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous. Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradient and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls. Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion�s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow�or both. Luckily, temperature gradient metamorphism is completely reversible; when you take away the temperature gradient, the crystals start to metamorphose back into rounded, well-bonded grains. We are also starting to see surface faceting as well as probably some near surface faceting around rocks and trees.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-14

Fri, 14 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 11 TO 15. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...EAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 4 TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...EAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 13 TO 19. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 11 TO 17. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. We are continuing to see winds and very cold temperatures. This is continuing to place stress on the snowpack in any areas that are windloading. Areas on Douglas Island, Mt Roberts, and Mt Juneau will vary greatly now do to the high winds and wind directions. Some areas are seeing much more wind affect than others. We have seen winds averaging 10-20 for over 5 days and winds averaging over 20 for the last 48 hours. Wednesday wind placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading can place hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places. Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. As these high winds continue the areas of windslab can grow as the depressions start to gather snow and level out to the terrain near them thus consuming even more area. Look to see the upper slopes of Mt Juneau leveling out and developing larger slabs as we continue to see wind deposits on the face. This direct loading on top of a weak layer in place continues to raise concern. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. This is not to say that natural avalanches could not happen. There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous. Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradient and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls. Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion�s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow�or both. Luckily, temperature gradient metamorphism is completely reversible; when you take away the temperature gradient, the crystals start to metamorphose back into rounded, well-bonded grains. We are also starting to see surface faceting as well as probably some near surface faceting around rocks and trees.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-15

Sat, 15 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF JUNEAU. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH DECREASING TO 50 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...CLOUDY...LOCALLY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF JUNEAU. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TEENS...EXCEPT STEADY NEAR 9 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. EAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO LATE. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY...LOCALLY WINDY. NOT AS COLD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 20 TO 25...EXCEPT AROUND 16 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU...DOUGLAS AND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We are continuing to see winds and very cold temperatures. This is continuing to place stress on the snowpack in any areas that are windloading. Areas on Douglas Island, Mt Roberts, and Mt Juneau will vary greatly now do to the high winds and wind directions. Some areas are seeing much more wind affect than others. We have seen winds averaging 10-20 for over 5 days and winds averaging over 20 for the last 48 hours. Wednesday wind placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading can place hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places. Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. As these high winds continue the areas of windslab can grow as the depressions start to gather snow and level out to the terrain near them thus consuming even more area. Look to see the upper slopes of Mt Juneau leveling out and developing larger slabs as we continue to see wind deposits on the face. This direct loading on top of a weak layer in place continues to raise concern. Danger Levels are MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. This is not to say that natural avalanches could not happen. There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous. Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradient and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls. Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion�s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow�or both. Luckily, temperature gradient metamorphism is completely reversible; when you take away the temperature gradient, the crystals start to metamorphose back into rounded, well-bonded grains. We are also starting to see surface faceting as well as probably some near surface faceting around rocks and trees.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-16

Sun, 16 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. PERIODS OF SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 18. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...WINDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 9 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 20 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We are continuing to see winds and very cold temperatures. This along with the new snow in the forecast is continuing to place stress on the snowpack in any areas that are windloading. Areas on Douglas Island, Mt Roberts, and Mt Juneau will vary greatly now do to the high winds and wind directions. Some areas are seeing much more wind affect than others. We have seen winds averaging 10-20 for over 6 days and winds averaging over 20 for the last 72 hours. Wednesday wind placed 4cm of snow on our tram snow depth sensor. This is showing active windloading in areas. This windloading has placee hard dense slabs of snow on top of the looser lighter snow in some places. Last Sundays Mt Juneau Fieldwork showed a great deal of scouring do to wind. Some areas had no loose snow at all. Other areas were showing slab development. What was loose slab formation at the end of last week turned into hard slab deposits Sunday. Tests in windloaded areas were showing very low density snow(fist) under a hard slab(pencil). Stability tests performed in this region showed compression tests with scores of 4(out of 30) and extended column test scores of 1(out of 30). BOTH VERY WEAK SCORES. Shooting cracks were seen running as much as 10' out from the last point of contact. Similar results were found midweek on Douglas Island with tests failing on preparation before the actual tests were conducted. This shows us that slabs are in place that can fracture and have the ability to propagate as well. This instability is probably only found in pockets. Yet please recognize that areas of great weakness exist. As these high winds continue accompanied by this new snow the areas of windslab can grow as the depressions start to gather snow and level out to the terrain near them thus consuming even more area. Look to see the upper slopes of Mt Juneau leveling out and developing larger slabs as we continue to see wind deposits on the face. This direct loading on top of a weak layer in place continues to raise concern. Also this new snow started at extremely cold temperatures. This could create 2 problems. The first being that super cold snow does not like to stick and bond well to the old snow surface. The second being that at some point during this snow event as predicted temperatures will increase and as we often discuss, warming temperatures during a storm tend to place heavier denser snow over the top of looser lighter snow. This can create an upside down snowpack especially if the volumes are high during this warming phase. Danger Levels are Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches are possible, human triggered avalanches are likely. This will be more and more true as this new snow starts to add up. There have been natural and man made releases sighted throughout the region over the last several days. Most of these releases have been in only the top 30-35cm of the snowpack. For Urban Avalanches the sizes are not expected to be great. For Backcountry Avalanches this size of avalanche would still be quite dangerous. As this new snow is added this weak layer may become more reactive and we may see increased natural activity. Our current cold temperatures and wind place increased stress on the snowpack in the form of a temperature gradient and added stress do to windloading. Watch over time to see if the snow at or near the surface starts to develop facets. This crystal type does not support weight well during future snowfalls. Temperature gradient is a very important in the snowpack because when temperature changes more than about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters, the snow metamorphoses into weak, sugary, faceted crystals, which cause the lion�s share of avalanche accidents. Large temperature gradients usually occur when cold, clear weather causes the snow surface to become very cold, or if the snow is especially shallow�or both. This last week we have seen surface faceting as well as some near surface faceting. Be extremely cautious as we start to place increased snowloads on this weak layer in place.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-17

Mon, 17 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 24...RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY...SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 21 TO 29. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. LOWS 28 TO 34. THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. Pay Attention Folks because here it comes!!! Currently we have multiple weak layers in place. From Near Surface Faceted Crystals, to weak layers buried beneath wind slabs, to surface faceting. With the addition of this new load in the form of precipitation and wind loading Danger Levels are CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural Avalanches are Possible and Human Triggered Avalanches Likely Areas of instability are not currently widespread, yet areas of instability can be found. We have seen many natural avalanche releases in the last 5 days simply do to loading from the wind. At this time with new snow and additional windloading we expect to see this buried weak layer become even more reactive. This new snow started on Saturday at 6 F Degrees. Extremely cold snow does not tend to bond well to the old snow surface especially with some great areas of surface faceting in place. The temperatures have warmed up over 15 degrees since that time. We are expecting as much as 15+" of snow over the next 4 days. During this time the temperatures are expected to warm up by as much as another 15 degrees. That could account for as much as 30 degrees of warming during a 5 day period accompanied by precipitation. This will definitely place heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows in place that have very little cohesiveness or bond to the old snow surface. During this event if temperatures come up as expected and if we see the moisture predicted in the forecast look to see danger levels rising through HIGH and slide sizes growing as we see this new snow accumulate. Be extremely cautious in the Backcountry. Today's conditions may be manageable if you choose safe routes and limit exposure. Danger level will rise considerably throughout tomorrow and the rest or the week. Remember, Choose safe lines, Limit your exposure, Carry a transceiver, probe, shovel and never travel in the backcountry without a trained partner.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-18

Tue, 18 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 30 TO 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS 28 TO 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Pay Attention Folks because here it comes!!! Currently we have multiple weak layers in place. From Near Surface Faceted Crystals, to weak layers buried beneath wind slabs, to surface faceting. With the addition of this new load in the form of precipitation(SNOW) and wind loading Danger Levels are CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural Avalanches are Possible and Human Triggered Avalanches Likely. Todays danger and tomorrows danger will stay the same. As we see increased moisture and warming into Thursday danger levels could increase. Areas of instability are not currently widespread, yet areas of instability can be easily found. Yesterday skier triggering was easy on steeper open slopes and any place windloaded. Most activity was surface oriented. The deeper weak layers in place appear to be holding well at this time. This deeper weak layer could become reactive again on Thursday with the increased precipitation rates. We have seen many natural avalanche releases in the last 5 days simply do to loading from the wind. At this time with new snow and additional windloading we expect to see this buried weak layer become even more reactive. This new snow started on Saturday at 6 F Degrees. Extremely cold snow does not tend to bond well to the old snow surface especially with some great areas of surface faceting in place. The temperatures have warmed up over 25 degrees since that time. We are expecting continued snow over the next 4 days. During this time the temperatures are expected to warm up by as much as another 5 degrees. That could account for as much as 30 degrees of warming during a 5 day period accompanied by precipitation. This will definitely place heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows in place that have very little cohesiveness or bond to the old snow surface. During this event if temperatures come up as expected and if we see the moisture predicted in the forecast look to see danger levels rising through HIGH and slide sizes growing as we see this new snow accumulate. Be extremely cautious in the Backcountry. Danger level will rise considerably Thursday. Remember, Choose safe lines, Limit your exposure, Carry a transceiver, probe, shovel and never travel in the backcountry without a trained partner.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-19

Wed, 19 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. PERIODS OF SNOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...BREEZY. SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 800 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Yesterdays near freezing temperatures and lack of precipitation gave the snowpack a little time to settle and bond. There are still pockets of weakness in steep open areas, near ridgeline, summit, and in windloaded areas. We have multiple weak layers in place yet most activity appears to be related to the new snows on the surface. Yesterday Natural Avalanche Debris was sighted in the Berhands Ave Avalanche Path and on Thane Road. Some smaller natural releases pulled out during our snow event. Those slides showed all surface activity, no propagation (spreading wider) and no tearing down to the deeper weak layers. This shows that weakness exists in the snowpack yet is a good sign that the danger might only be present at or near the surface thus limiting the size of the avalanches were they to happen. Slides could go deeper as well. But in general this is a good sign. As we go into tomorrow and the next couple of days temperatures will again be rising. We are expecting 1" of moisture or more before Friday morning. Depending on how this comes in we are possibly creating an upside down snowpack again. The more of the new snow we get at cold temperatures before the warming, the more rapid the warming, the more intense the precipitation rate is during the warming, The Higher the danger levels will be and the larger the slides will be. Danger levels are Considerable at this time look to see danger levels rising perhaps even higher. Be Safe and Enjoy a Great Day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-20

Thu, 20 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 800 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received over 25mm of precipitation at tram summit levels in the last 24 hours. Temperatures have risen over 7 degrees during that time and are now at 0 at tram summit elevations of 1800'. While the Eaglecrest summit is -1, Mid Mountain Temperatures at Eaglecrest are showing 32F and also climbed by over 12 degrees in the last 24 hours. We gained 18cm of snow with 17mm of precipitation during the first part of the storm from 9am yesterday to midnight. Since that time we have added an additional 9mm or Precipitation with a total snowpack loss of 1cm. This is showing us placing a block of heavy wet snow on the looser lighter snow in place pre storm and even at the beginning of the cycle when temps were cooler. Winds from 10-30 mph were also present during out last 24 hour snowfall. This shows us the ability for great loading. Danger levels are HIGH at this time We are expecting over .7" of rain in the next 24 hours. Quite a bit of which will come in as snows at our upper elevations. Experimental forecasts show that we may receive as much as 2.8" of moisture before Sunday morning. This is going to place an incredible amount of stress on the snowpack. During the next 36 hours temps are predicted to continue to rise. We are not expecting nearly as much nightime cooling over the next few days as well. Avalanche Danger is HIGH. Avalanche sizes and the chances of an avalanche will continue to grow for the next 24 hours at least! Pretty much all the signs are present for a dangerous day in the mountains and things are not going to get any better in the next 24-48 hours. Backcountry Travel is NOT recommended. Please be aware of dangerous trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Even accessing trails such as the Dan Moeller can be hazardous during times of avalanche danger.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-21

Fri, 21 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have risen by 3 degrees in the last 24 hours. We have received .6" of rain at Sea Level during that time. Mt Roberts showed .5" of rain during that same time. Non of this precipitation in the last 24 hours has been in the form of snow with the possible exception of the top few feet of the mountain. We have seen quite a bit of settlement and consolidation in the upper snowpack in the last 24 hours. So overall even though avalanche danger is HIGH at this time do to large precipitation volumes, the size of the possible new snow surface avalanches is shrinking. Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are probable. Especially in steep open convex slopes, with fewer anchors, where there is a lot of stress in the snowpack already in the form of creep. Experimental forecast models still show as much as 2.2" of additional precipitation in the next 48 hours. This continues to eat away at the bonds in the snowpack. This makes the frozen ice cube in place turn into a slurpee with a great deal of free moisture present. The precipitation is absorbed by the snowpack and it starts by adding weight and stress to the surface layers. As time persists the moisture continues to percolate through the pack. Once percolation has reached full depth and the snowpack has developed drainage channels to process the water the danger level could start to fall a little. But until that drainage has reached full depth we are continuing to add weight and stress to multiple weak layers deeper in the snowpack that have been lying dormant for some time. Rains are fairly heavy today and tomorrows high will once again be 39 degrees. We are predicted to receive as much as one inch of rain today and up to another 1.6" of rain during Tomorrow. 1.6" of rain in 24 hours would be the most stress we have placed on the snowpack in quite some time. Should avalanches happen in the older weak layers sizes could be greater in some areas were winds have deposited additional snows over the course of the winter. As we continue through this storm cycle the longer these warm temps and heavy rains persist the more we need to be concerned of the deeper weak layers in place until drainage in the snowpack is established. Remember to use extreme caution in the mountains until these precip rates and temps start to fall. Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, and Partner. Dont leave home without them! There have been over 5 avalanche fatalities in North America in the last week. Most of which took place during times of Considerable and High Avalanche Danger. Remember when conditions are not favorable, scale back, be conservative and LIVE TO PLAY ANOTHER DAY!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-22

Sat, 22 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. We have received 1.5" of precipitation in the last 12 hours and 2" of rain in the last 36 hours overall. During the last 20 hours we have received 10cm of new snow at tram summit elevations and some additional accumulation above that elevation. But most of this moisture came in the form or rain or rain saturated snows. Eaglecrest saw a little more in the form of snow with 6" of new in the last 20 hours at the UAS snow study plot mid mountain but densities remain extremely high. We are expecting as much as another 1.5" of rain in the next 24 hours. This is continuing to add weight and stress to the snowpack rapidly. With most of this moisture coming it the form of rain it continues to eat away at the bonds in the snowpack in the surface layers. This continues to erode the bridges that have been supporting the snowload over old weak layers in place. The longer the rain persists and the higher the accumulation rates the more stress that is being added to the deeper weak layers in place. Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time. Upper mountains saw quite a bit of new snow in the last 24 hours... with slabs as deep as 2' in places. We went through a large natural avalanche release cycle today. Thane Road, The Berhands Path, The White Path, Chop Gulley (above the flume) all had natural avalanches today. Most slides were class 2+. Even though we have releived a great deal of stress in these areas and removed a lot of mass from the slopes, The danger is present for secondary slides in the same areas. Without viewing the starting zones to know how much mass has cleaned out it is hard to predict if we have seen the worst of it. Temperatures are predicted to fall overnight. Moisture accumulation rates are predicted to fall after midnight. After that time the snowpack will start to solidify again. But danger will be present for a while longer until the moisture is fully absorbed and bonding has occured. This is a good time to remind ourselves of protocols during times of HIGH avalanche danger. Avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Limit your travels down Thane Road and when doing so notify someone you are on the way, then check in with them once your cleared. Do not park along Thane road to walk the beaches. Do not walk or jog along Thane Road. Limit your time spent in the Urban Avalanche Zones from the Berhands Subdivision to the White Subdivision. Go out to dinner, see a movie, perhaps even spend an evening at a friends house. Now is a good time to avoid being in the area of danger. Backcountry Travel is Not Recommended. Remember, Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, Partner, Shovel are the basic tools to avalanche rescue. You should not be in Avalanche Terrain without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-23

Sun, 23 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. The Mount Roberts Tram Weather Station recorded 2.3" of precipitation in the last 48 hours. We have seen over 4" of precipitation in the last 6 days. Quite a bit of this precipitation has been in the form of rain. Even at tram elevations what could have been over a meter of snow ended up only delivering 44cm and after settlement over the 6 days with the warm temps and rain that only left a total of just over 30cm of total snow depth. Every few feet of elevation right now is making a large difference in snow depth. Yesterday where weather stations were only snowing 6" of new snow we were able to find over 3 times that much just a few hundred feet higher. Every elevation and aspect has slightly different layering and weak layer placement at this time do to temp differences, winds, and amount of rain/snow received. Yesterday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present. Most of yesterdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two storm cycles. Temperatures dropped night before last and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champaign glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure. Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted at Eaglecrest, Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread. We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched. Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place. Temps are cooling a bit over the next 24 hours. Precipitation rates have slowed greatly. This should give the snowpack time to settle and bond while adjusting to the new weight placed on it in the last 7 days. Temperatures and Danger levels remain HIGH today but should start falling lower in the next few days. Time is our friend. Be patient and give the snow that extra day to bond before venturing out into the backcountry. This is a good time to remind ourselves of protocols during times of HIGH avalanche danger. Avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Limit your travels down Thane Road and when doing so notify someone you are on the way, then check in with them once your cleared. Do not park along Thane road to walk the beaches. Do not walk or jog along Thane Road. Limit your time spent in the Urban Avalanche Zones from the Berhands Subdivision to the White Subdivision. Go out to dinner, see a movie, perhaps even spend an evening at a friends house. Now is a good time to avoid being in the area of danger. Backcountry Travel is Not Recommended. Remember, Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, Partner, Shovel are the basic tools to avalanche rescue. You should not be in Avalanche Terrain without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-24

Mon, 24 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 Temperatures have been fairly consistant over the last 2 days. Precipitation rates have slowed considerably. At Mt Roberts Tram Summit where yesterday morning we had recorded 2" of moisture in the previous 36 hours, today we are showing less than 1" for the last 48 hours. This slower precip rate is giving the snowpack time to settle and bond. Saturday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present. Most of Saturdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two storm cycles. Temperatures dropped Friday night and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champagne glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure. Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted at Eaglecrest, Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread. We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched. Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place. The Danger Level Today is CONSIDERABLE. Natural avalanches are still possible. Yet with the slower precip rate the danger has gone down slightly from yesterday. Human Triggered avalanches are still likely. Many areas are quite stable and with good terrain selection you could travel in the backcountry. Yet the mousetrap has been set. There is a weak layer with low density snows down to about 35-40 cm deep under high density snow so firm you can only barely stick a pencil into it. This shows us that brick on top of those champaign glasses. They can hold weight, but the question is how much. Be aware of areas in the snow with additional stress such as steep open unanchored slopes as well as on convex rollovers. Backcounrty travel is recommended only for groups of 3 or more with good snowpack stability evaluation skills. Remember Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, and partner(and sometimes 2) Don't leave home without them! Tomorrow into Wednesday we will go back into a period with higher precip rates. Through this 2 day period forecast models show as much as 2.16" of precipitation. Danger levels will rise again. The danger level will have a lot to do with where the freezing level ends up during this event and how much windloading we see if the upper mountains see it in the form of snow. But in general anytime we add more than 1" of precipitation to the snowpack in 24 hours this adds enough stress to create concern and high danger levels. Knowing we could have 2 of those days back to back raises even greater concern especially knowing we just followed up another cycle that created great loading and stress.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-25

Tue, 25 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We received .7" of rain in the last 24 hours. This was a bit more than the forecast amount. Moisture models for the next 48 hours have been downgraded. Loading rates will still be moderate. If we see a slight surge in the storm this could lead to substantially more precipitation mostly in the form of rain. The current forecast calls for 800' freezing levels this morning climbing to 1300' in the afternoon. Yet it is currently +1C at the 1800' Mt Roberts Tram Summit Elevation. 24 hour temperatures since the 21st have been the warmest temps we have seen since December 7th. Combined with this rain event the snowpack is seeing more stress now than it has in quite some time. Saturday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present. Most of Saturdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two snow layers caused by warming temps. Temperatures dropped Friday night and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champagne glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure. Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted near Eaglecrest on Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread. We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched. Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place. Courtesy aerial photos sent yesterday from Mike Janes of AEL&P showed the upper starting zones of the Berhands path. It appears that some of the avalanche debris may have come from the deeper weak layer failing. This is the first deep weak layer failure we have seen in the region in quite some time. This shows us that this weakness too is now close to the trigger point where it exists. The Danger Level Today is CONSIDERABLE. Natural avalanches are still possible. Human Triggered avalanches are still likely. Many areas are quite stable and with good terrain selection you could travel in the backcountry. Yet the mousetrap has been set. There is a weak layer with low density snows down to about 35-40 cm deep under high density snow so firm you can only barely stick a pencil into it. This shows us that brick on top of those champaign glasses. They can hold weight, but the question is how much. With some new snow at summit elevations new wind slabs are also possible on windloaded pitches. Be aware of areas in the snow with additional stress such as steep open unanchored slopes as well as on convex rollovers. Backcounrty travel is recommended only for groups with good snowpack stability evaluation skills, training, and rescue equipment. Remember Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, and partner(and sometimes 2) Don't leave home without them!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-26

Wed, 26 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET DECREASING TO NEAR SEA LEVEL LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. WEST WIND TO 10 MPH. THURSDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. At tram summit elevations temperatures are the warmest this morning they have been since December 7th. This comes at the end of a long warm spell for us that has seen quite a bit of moisture. Luckily most of the lower mountain does not have that much snow and we have seen a fair amount of slide activity already. Precipitation Rates are continuing to fall today and into tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to fall and continue falling over the next 24 hours. Yesterday Natural Avalanches were still being sighted regularly around the community. Primarily on steep open pitches. Danger levels are MODERATE today with natural avalanches still possible and human triggered avalanches still probable in places. As the precipitation starts to dry out and temperatures start to fall the snowpack will start to gain strength. Time is our friend. Conditions should start to get more and more stable tomorrow and into Friday.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-27

Thu, 27 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 36. WEST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 22. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST TO 10 MPH LATE. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have fallen by 4 degrees in the last 30 hours and are expected to continue falling for the next 24 hours. We have seen less than 1" of precipitation in the last 48 hours. Precipitation rates have slowed from more than double that number several days ago. AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME> Natural Avalanches are unlikely yet human triggered avalanches are still possible. PLEASE BE AWARE THIS IS NOT A BACKCOUNTRY FORECAST. This forecast if for the urban areas of the city of Juneau. 10 days ago the Mt Roberts Tram weather station reported 148cm of snowpack on the ground. Currently the gauge is showing 181cm. We received a total of 33cm of new snow accumulation during this time. At the summit of Eaglecrest only a few hundred feet higher those 10 day snowfall accumulation totals are almost double with the Eaglecrest summit showing more than 66cm of new during that same time. The densities at Eaglecrest summit were quite high and we even saw a little rain at that elevation. We received a total of 156mm of moisture in the last 10 days which is quite a bit. Had all this precipitation come to us in the form of 10% average density snows we could have received as much as 156cm of new snow. Even with rapid settlement this would probably have added up to more than 130cm of snow. So it is safe to assume that although the tram weather station recorded 33cm of new snow over the last 10 days, there may be over 4 times that much new snow at higher elevations in the backcountry. Winds have been consistantly blowing over the last 10 days as well creating a lot of windloading in areas with new snow. Slab avalanche activity has been sighted throughout the region over the last 10 days. Many slopes reach a state of instability yet never fail do to the lack of a trigger. We have no triggers to speak of in the urban avalanche zones. Please recognize in the backcounrty in certain areas the mousetrap has been set. Although there are fewer trigger points today than there were several days ago if you venture into the wrong spot it is still quite possible to step on the trap. Snow conditions are quite variable right now on different aspects and at different elevations. If you choose to go into the backcountry please recognize you should have the ability to look at the snow by doing avalanche assesment techniques and make your own decisions. For backcounrty travelers who are making their own decisions a LEVEL I AVALANCHE COURSE is highly recommended. Now is a great time to remind people of the importance of avalanche education. Please also remember: AVALANCHE TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL, and PARTNER. DONT LEAVE HOME WITHOUT THEM!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-28

Fri, 28 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 30 TO 35. LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOWS 17 TO 23. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 14 TO 20. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received no precipitation in the last 24 hours. Temperatures have been below freezing now for over 30 hours at tram summit elevations. Temperatures are predicted to drop quite a bit tonight. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time in the urban areas. Natural avalanches are unlikely and yet human triggered avalanches are still possible. PLEASE BE AWARE THIS IS NOT A BACKCOUNTRY FORECAST. This forecast if for the urban areas of the city of Juneau. 10 days ago the Mt Roberts Tram weather station reported 148cm of snowpack on the ground. Currently the gauge is showing 181cm. We received a total of 33cm of new snow accumulation during this time. At the summit of Eaglecrest only a few hundred feet higher those 10 day snowfall accumulation totals are almost double with the Eaglecrest summit showing more than 66cm of new during that same time. The densities at Eaglecrest summit were quite high and we even saw a little rain at that elevation. We received a total of 156mm of moisture in the last 10 days which is quite a bit. Had all this precipitation come to us in the form of 10% average density snows we could have received as much as 156cm of new snow. Even with settlement this could have added up to more than 130cm of snow. So it is safe to assume that although the tram weather station recorded 33cm of new snow over the last 10 days, there may be over 4 times that much new snow at higher elevations in the backcountry. Winds have been consistantly blowing over the last 10 days as well creating a lot of windloading in areas with new snow. Slab avalanche activity has been sighted throughout the region over the last 10 days. Many slopes reach a state of instability yet never fail do to the lack of a trigger. We have no triggers to speak of in the urban avalanche zones. Please recognize in the backcounrty in certain areas the mousetrap has been set. Although there are fewer trigger points today than there were several days ago if you venture into the wrong spot it is still quite possible to step on the trap. Snow conditions are quite variable right now on different aspects and at different elevations. If you choose to go into the backcountry please recognize you should have the ability to look at the snow by doing avalanche assesment techniques and make your own decisions. For backcounrty travelers who are making their own decisions a LEVEL I AVALANCHE COURSE is highly recommended. Now is a great time to remind people of the importance of avalanche education. Please also remember: AVALANCHE TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL, and PARTNER. DONT LEAVE HOME WITHOUT THEM!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-29

Sat, 29 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- REST OF TODAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS 13 TO 19. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With no precipitation in the last 48 hours and cool temperatures in place avalanche danger is low at this time. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Conditions in the mountains around town may be a little more dangerous as you add the trigger to the avalanche ( YOU ). If you choose to go into the backcountry please recognize you should have the ability to look at the snow by doing avalanche assesment techniques and make your own decisions. For backcounrty travelers who are making their own decisions a LEVEL I AVALANCHE COURSE is highly recommended. Now is a great time to remind people of the importance of avalanche education. Please also remember: AVALANCHE TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL, and PARTNER. DONT LEAVE HOME WITHOUT THEM!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-30

Sun, 30 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With no precipitation in the last 72 hours and cool temperatures in place avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-01-31

Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 1200 FEET BY LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With the last 3 days of clear cold weather following our week + of warm rainy weather the snowpack has solidified in place and is stable at this time. With the last few days of clear cold weather we started to see some surface snow faceting develop. This snow condition does not hold new snow load well. This afternoon and this evening we will start to see new snowfall. This snow will start at cooler temperatures and warm up throughout the night once again creating that upside down snowpack condition that is always a concern. We will start by placing some loose cold snow on top of a weak layer of facets and then load those layers with denser and denser snows as the temperatures rise. Tomorrow could see as much as one inch of precipitation. This in itself raises danger levels do to rapid loading. Some of this precipitation will come as snows up high. If the temps rise rapidly before we see much accumulation we may not see any activity or only small slides. But if we see a fair amount of new snow accumulation before it turns to rain the slide sizes will be greater. By midday tomorrow, at latest, I expect to see snow sluffing off the rocks, trees, and steep open pitches releiving itself of stress. We are to the part of the season now where most of the upper mountain anchors are covered up. Once these anchors are covered it takes a lot less for us to start noticing larger slides on a more regular basis. Wednesday could bring close to another inch of moisture. This will mostly be in the form of rain. Yet if we do see it as snows even at summit level there is the possibility for up to 2' of new snow at summit levels in the next 72 hours. I do not expect to see that much snow. But I am trying to let you know the possibility exists for slides and slide sizes to grow rapidly. Start to pay daily attention to the forecast in the next few months as we now have enough snow up high to cover anchors and generate a greater concern. Remember avalanches are about timing. Dangers will only be HIGH for short periods of time. During those times please remember to limit your exposure to avalanche terrain. Have a great day everyone.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-01

Tue, 01 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We received one inch of new snow at tram summits. Higher accumulation totals may be seen higher on the mountains. Eaglecrest UAS snowsite is showing 3 inches. Temperatures are above freezing at tram elevations and will continue to warm throughout the morning. We will see continued precipitation for the next several days. Look to see this little new snow cleaning itself off of trees, rocks, and steep open pitches as it continues to gain weight with todays precipitation. Slide sizes are not forecast to be large today. With warming temps and continued rainfall, the longer these conditions persist the more we become concerned with the deeper weak layers in place. HAVE A GREAT DAY>

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-02

Wed, 02 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have risen slightly in the last 24 hours. We received 22mm of moisture(remember 25.4 is one inch) in the last 24 hours. We are predicted to receive more than another inch of precipitation in the next 24 hours. Most of the surface weakness is limited to very small slides and after yesterday we should see limited activity with these smaller slides. Today is the warmest days we have seen since Dec 7th. As we continue to see these warm temps and moderate rains we are eating at the bonds solidifying the snow in place. As we continue this long warm wet spell this moisture adds weight and stress to the snowpack and continues to eat at the bonds deeper and deeper in the snowpack the longer the conditions exist. Last week we cleaned a lot of the weak layers in place off the mountains especially at lower elevations. As this condition persists it becomes more difficult to time avalanches and determine what layer they might run on. Be aware that although we do not have much snow in the urban zones down low, and although we cleaned a lot of weak layers out of the pack, the danger of avalanche is HIGH today. Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are more than likely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-03

Thu, 03 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 43 EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE. FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 27 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have reveiced 35mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours (about 1.4") Temperatures hit two month highs during that time. Avalanche Danger is currently HIGH. Temperatures fell by 2 degrees in the last 18 hours and precipitation rates are falling considerably. Temperatures are predicted to remain quite high today. As we give this rain time to drain out of the snowpack we will start to see a cooling trend in the temps throughout the next 24 hours that should give us near 8 degrees of additional cooling. As the snowpack looses its free moisture and continues to cool stability will increase. Danger levels are predicted to fall throughout tonight and in to tomorrow. Time is your friend right now. Remember the danger levels are still HIGH Today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-04

Fri, 04 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. WEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SATURDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 22 TO 28. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have fallen 5 degrees in the last 2 days and are currently below freezing again in mountain starting zones. We have seen 19mm (about .8")of precipitation during that time. With only light precipitation in the forecast for the next 24 hours and cooling temperatures avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-05

Sat, 05 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 20 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Precipitation rates have been low for the last few days. Temperatures have fallen 8 degrees in the last 3 days and are predicted to remain below freezing today. We have received about 4" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit level. Winds have been fairly light during most of it and scattered in direction. Avalanche Danger is LOW today in the urban paths. Small pocket of weakness may exist in the backcountry at higher elevations that could be triggererd yet in general dangers remain low.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-06

Sun, 06 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. PATCHY FOG IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 32 TO 39. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST 25 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE LATE EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING. MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS 27 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. Temperatures are below freezing still this am. We are expecting a several degree rise in temperatures this am during a period of strong winds. Yesterday am we saw almost 4" of new snow at upper elevations. This new snow will start to build weak small slabs during this wind event and the diurinal fluctuation will add stress to this wind slab formation. Natural avalanches are not likely yet human triggered avalanches will be possible in isolated areas. Most of the lower snowpack is quite solid in place. We do not expect to see slides of any size. Be cautious of wind loaded pockets near treeline, ridgeline, and summit. Enjoy the Superbowl! Be Safe and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-07

Mon, 07 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 25. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received quite a bit of rain all the way to mountin top level last week. Temperatures have been slowly cooling over the last 4 days now. The lower snowpack is fairly solid and locked in place. Friday night we received about 4" of new snow and have seen some light to moderate transport winds since then. Small isolated slabs may have formed near summit and ridgeline. With exception of those small surface slabs we are not worried about avalanches of any size at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-08

Tue, 08 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCH. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH...BEFORE MELTING. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It has been clear and cool the last several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations. The lower snowpack is quite solid in place. Saturday we received almost 4" of new snow at upper mountain elevations. Yesterday we were able to see that this 4" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging. As we go through tonight and into tomorrow the avalanche danger will rise as we start to place this cold new snow on the few slabs that are in place. Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm comes in accompanied by warming temps over the next few days danger levels are expected to rise. With .67" of precip expected for tomorrow and .79 in the forecast for Wednesday we could see some new snow buildup at upper elevations thus growing the size of the slides predicted with the increased avalanche danger. Be cautuious over the next few days as we start to see this new snow add up. Check for bonding and weak layers. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-09

Wed, 09 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations. The lower snowpack is quite solid in place. Saturday we received almost 4" of new snow at upper mountain elevations. Monday we were able to see that this 4" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging. As we went through last night and into today the avalanche danger rose as we started to place this cold new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place. Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm comes in accompanied by warming temps over the next few days danger levels are expected to rise. Temperatures have warmed by 5 degrees in the last 23 hours. During that time we have received 27mm of precipitation which in turn left about 28 cm of snow.(nearly a foot at tram summit) Winds out of the south (165 degrees) have been cross loading our slopes with average speeds of about 15 knots. Currently temps at tram summit level are -1. We are expecting as much as another 5 degrees of warming in the next 24 hours during which time we are predicted to receive about ½� of precipitation. If this stays as snow up high until tomorrow am that could be as much as another 6� of snow. If it turns to rain sooner you will have less snow and higher possibility of slides. Between now and tomorrow pm you should see some natural avalanche activity. This upside down snowpack will want to releive itself off of trees, rocks, and steep open pitches. Cornices will be forming weak and dropping off during the warm loading trend. Slide sizes are not expected to be huge yet we should start to see some activity as this system continues throughout today and into tomorrow. Remember in the backcountry always bring your transceiver, probe, shovel and partner. Limit exposure to avalanche paths in the community. Avoid avalanche zones as much as possible during periods of HIGH and EXTREME danger Be safe and enjoy the new snow today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-10

Thu, 10 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET AND RISING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations. The lower snowpack is quite solid in place. Saturday we received almost 4" of new snow at upper mountain elevations. Monday we were able to see that this 4" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging. As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place this new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place. Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm comes in accompanied by warming temps over the next few days danger levels are expected to rise. We have seen a 7 degree temperature rise over 36 hours and are expecting a few more degrees of warming throughout the day today. This is a Moderate to Considerable warming trend. Winds have averaged 10-25 for the last 36 hours and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions. We have seen 70mm of precipitation in the last 36 hours(roughly 2.4). The first 49mm of precipitation left 50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 20mm of moisture although near freezing temps(+1)translated into no new snow accumulation. This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see from the last of the precip coming in the form of rain is placing quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high. Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly this am. With the continued precipitation and increase of another 2 degrees of temp on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail. Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure. Please remember when traveling in the backcountry dont leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-11

Fri, 11 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...BREEZY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. TEMPERATURES AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations. The lower snowpack is fairly solid in place. It has seen quite a bit of rain and developed drainage down low. Up high it remains frozen and solid. Last Saturday we received almost 4" of new snow at upper mountain elevations. Monday we were able to see that this 4" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging. As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place additional new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place. Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm cames in accompanied by warming temps over the last few days danger levels rose quite a bit. We have seen a 7 degree temperature rise over the last 60 hours and are expecting it to remain warm throughout the day today. This was a Moderate to Considerable warming trend. Winds have averaged 10-25 for the last 60 hours and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions. We have seen 87mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours(roughly 3.4"). The first 49mm of precipitation left 50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 38mm of moisture although near freezing temps(+1)translated into no new snow accumulation and settlement of nearly 10cm. So although the snows came in at under 10% densities you can see now the overall densities averages are nearer to 18%. To get that average you can assume something like the bottom half is 10-15% density and the top half might be like 23-28% Density. The weak layer is present and the mousetrap has been set. You have a rather large brick sitting on a weaker layer. This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see from the last of the precip coming in the form of rain is placing quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high. Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly this am. With the continued precipitation on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail. Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure. Yesterday a portion of Thane Road slid and stopped short of the road. There is additional mass up there today and still areas of weakness. Driving the road yesterday I still saw groups of joggers and walkers heading through avalanche paths. Please recognize you are at risk! This is not a smart place to be during periods of high danger. Douglas Island saw quite a few avalanche yesterday, both natural and man made. Slides were ranging from 30 to 60cm and propagating widely. Running through trees and around terrain features. Cornices are weak and cornice falls have the ability to trigger larger slides. One cornice fall released a nearby slope over a meter deep. A great deal or Woomphing and Cracking was seen in the snowpack during travel. Forecast precipitation rates are predicted to fall. As we go through tonight in to tomorrow temps are also predicted to fall. This weak layer may settle and bond but do not assume anything without doing the research to make good decisions on your own. Time is our friend as this storm cools and precip rates subside we should see some good soft snow on top. But please be aware although backcountry conditions will start to look inviting there is still the presence of a weak layer in places. Please remember when traveling in the backcountry don't leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-12

Sat, 12 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 300 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It was clear and cool late last week for several days. This comes following a week of rains to summit elevations. The bottom of the snowpack is fairly solid in place. It has seen quite a bit of rain and developed drainage at lower elevations, while at higher elevations it remains frozen and solid. Last Saturday we received almost 4" of new snow at upper mountain elevations. Monday we were able to see that this 4" had created slab formations in our urban starting zones. Some of these slabs failed naturally and several are still hanging. As we went through Tuesday and into Wednesday the avalanche danger rose as we started to place additional new snow on the few weak shallow slabs that are in place. Even without the presence of the slabs and weak layer, as this storm cames in accompanied by warming temps over the last few days danger levels rose quite a bit. We saw a 7 degree temperature rise over the first 60 hours of the storm. This was a Moderate warming trend. Winds have averaged 10-25 during that time and were much higher on Douglas Island. These are moderate to considerable windloading conditions. We have seen 44mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours(roughly 1.8"). Which is a drop in Precip from the previous few days. The first days of the storm left 49mm of precipitation/50cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. The last 68mm of moisture in the storm although near freezing temps(mostly +1)translated into only 8cm of new snow accumulation over the last 15 hours and settlement of nearly 10cm overall. So although the snows at the beginning of the strom came in at under 10% densities you can see now the overall densities averages are much higher. You have a rather large brick sitting on a weaker layer. This is a HIGH loading rate and as you can see. The last of the precip coming in the form of rain placed quite heavy dense snow on top of looser lighter snows up high. Forecast precip models have been reduced slightly the last 48 hours. Temperatures have fallen by 2 degrees and are expected to continue to fall over the next few days. The large amount of new snow we saw has now had a few days to settle and bond with all the additional weight upon it. Yet there remains weakness in areas to be concerned with. With the continued precipitation on top of the weak layer and upside down slab in place AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE AT THIS TIME. Natural avalanches are still possible while human triggered avalanches remain likely. These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Most accidents happen during periods of CONSIDERABLE danger. Careful Snowpack Evaluations, Cautious Route Finding, and Conservative Decision Making are essential!!! Please avoid spending time in Avalanche Zones such as the Flume Trail, Perseverance Trail. Please avoid walking or jogging along Thane Road through avalanche paths. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure. Yesterday another portion of Thane Road slid and stopped short of the road. There is additional mass up there still with areas of weakness. Driving the road Thursday I saw groups of joggers and walkers heading through avalanche paths. Please recognize you are at risk! This is not a safe place to be during periods of high danger. Douglas Island saw quite a few avalanche the last 2 days, both natural and man made. Slides were ranging from 30 to 60cm and propagating widely. Running through trees and around terrain features. Cornices are weak and cornice falls have the ability to trigger larger slides. One cornice fall released a nearby slope over a meter deep. A great deal or Woomphing and Cracking was seen in the snowpack during travel. Forecast precipitation rates are predicted to fall. As we go through tonight in to tomorrow temps are also predicted to fall. This weak layer may settle and bond but do not assume anything without doing the research to make good decisions on your own. Time is our friend as this storm cools and precip rates subside we should see some good soft snow on top. But please be aware although backcountry conditions will start to look inviting there is still the presence of a weak layer in places. Please remember when traveling in the backcountry don't leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel as well as a well with a trained partner.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-13

Sun, 13 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 24 TO 30. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. MUCH COLDER. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS 6 TO 16. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. We have seen about 63 cm of snow(over 2') in the last 8 days after settlement. This came during a period of 135mm of moisture. As you can see this new slab of snow is quite dense (over 20% average). The beginning of the storm started with snows of less than 10% density. During the storm those low density layers have been settling with the additional load on top of them. We have given this new snow layer several days to settle and bond both now. Temperatures have fallen by several degrees in the last 2 days and are expected to continue falling over the next few days. Precipitation rates have slowed considerably over the last few days are are expected to remail lower. Windloading is still heavy out of the SE placing weak slabs on NW slopes and cross loading other areas. wind loading was moderate/strong throughout this entire storm. There are still areas of weakness for certain but as this weakness gets further down in the snowpack it becomes harder to trigger. As this weak layer has additional time it continues to become stronger. As the snowpack gains strength we also continue to load mass so the question remains is it getting stronger? Yes. How much stronger? Hard to say as we continue to add mass and create new weak layers with windloading in areas. During the last week we have seen widespread natural and human triggered avalanche activity. Please be aware this is an obvious sign of a weak layer in the snowpack that is near a state of failure. Please recognize the mouse trap has been set and even though danger levels have decreased slightly today there is still the ability to trigger avalanches. As we go through today and into tomorrow with new snows and moderate to heavy windloading look to see new slabs develop on top of the deep slabs already in place. Danger levels are expected to rise during this period. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE at this time. Although natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in areas. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features exist. Please evaluate snow and terrain carefully while identifying features of concern. Remember- Transceiver, Probe, Shovel, good partner. Dont head into the backcountry without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-14

Mon, 14 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...BECOMING BREEZY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS 8 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TUESDAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 21. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS 6 TO 16. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 35 MPH LATE. OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. We have received fairly consistant snows since 2/8. Since 2/8 we have received 70 cm of new snows including settlement. In the last 24 hours we received 15cm of new snow. Temperatures have fallen by 8c in the last 4 days and continue to fall. Wind loading was minimal during the last part of the storm and considerable during the beginning. Winds have now switched direction and picked up. These winds are directly loading faces on Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts raising current avalanche danger. This wind switch has already caused natural avalanches along Thane road at Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay. Both small slides. This shows us the potential for additional slides along adjacent paths exists and danger continues to build with these direct loading winds and loose snows available for transport. Last week during the first part of the storm we had a fair amount of natural avalanche activity. Thane Road slid at snowslide creek. The White Path Slid. Several other paths slid. Yet many have not and the weakness at the weak layer is still present. There is the possibility of new slabs having developed in the last few days. There is still a weak layer under our 70cm slab as well. Triggers will be fairly easy on the newer surface layers. The greater concern for today is the reactivity of the deeper layers of instability. If we see a small surface slide it could create enough energy to propagate down to the old weak layer in place. Or even the new weight load on a layer that has only moderately settled out may be enough to make that layer reactive once again. Today is a day to know your area, and what slid during our last weeks avalanche cycye. Without that knowledge of what slid previously you could be playing in an area that has far greater potential should it release. Slide sizes are starting to grow to a level of concern especially if we see the deeper weak layers release. Please limit your exposure to avalanche prone areas and use caution and good practices for travel in avalanche terrain. Remember, TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL, and a partner or two trained and equally prepared. Dont head out into the BC without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-15

Tue, 15 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 6 TO 16. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS 17 TO 23. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 6 TO 16. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. We have received over 10" of light new snow in the last 48 hours at tram summit elevations. Temperatures have fallen by over 15C in the last 36 hours. And much more if you consider wind chill. This places stress on the snowpack by drawing out moisture and exchange of heat transfer. In the last 20 hours we have received over 6" of wind transported snows at our Tram Summit Weather Site. This shows extreme windloading. Winds are predicted to remain high today. The wind direction also directly favors wind slab development in our urban starting zones. Yesterday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay. Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they can reload do to wind transport in a short period of time. Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity the danger is still present and growing. Yesterday the slabs started out as 8-10" of low density soft slab. As this wind event continues the slab depth can grow do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities will build as long as this wind event continues. A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on. Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. Since the beginning of the cycle we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas. So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+' and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them. This has the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present. Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large. Recognize the factors leading to avalanche are present and danger continues to rise due to windloading. AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-16

Wed, 16 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 16 TO 22. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 6 TO 16...EXCEPT AROUND 5 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THURSDAY...SUNNY...WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 14 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received over 10" of light new snow in the last 72 hours at tram summit elevations. This new snow has now had a little time to settle and bond to the old snow surface. Temperatures have fallen by over 16C in the last 60 hours. And much more if you consider wind chill. This places stress on the snowpack by drawing out moisture and exchange of heat transfer. In the last 44 hours we have received over 18cm of wind transported snows at our Tram Summit Weather Site. This shows extreme windloading. The longer this wind event lasts the less snow there is available for transport. So in time danger starts to decrease do to less rapid loading and time for settlement and bonding. Winds are predicted to remain high today. The wind direction also directly favors wind slab development in our urban starting zones. Monday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay. Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they can reload do to wind transport in a short period of time. Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity such as the Berhands Path and Chop Gulley the danger is still present and growing. Monday the slabs started out as 8-10" of low density soft slab. As this wind event continues the slab depth can grow do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities will build as long as this wind event continues. So it becomes slightly harder to trigger yet the force of the avalanche is increasing should it be triggered. A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on. Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. This layer has had more time to settle and bond and continues to gain strength yet remains present. Since the beginning of the cycle we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. That does not take into consideration the windloading as well so in areas the slab thickness could be much greater. There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas. So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+" and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them. This has the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present. Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large. Recognize some of the factors leading to avalanche are present and danger continues due to windloading. AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are very likely. These are still dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are the rules for the day if you choose to head out into the mountains to play. Recognize that most avalanche fatalaties in the mountains occur on days of Considerable danger.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-17

Thu, 17 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. LOCAL WIND CHILL TO 10 BELOW. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received over 10" of light new snow last Sunday into Monday at tram summit elevations. This new snow has now had some time to settle and bond to the old snow surface. Temperatures fell throughout the storm and remain cold still. Winds have been considerable for the last week and continue to load our urban paths. The longer this wind event lasts the less snow there is available for transport. So in time danger starts to decrease do to less rapid loading and time for settlement and bonding. Winds are predicted to remain high today. The wind direction also directly favors wind slab development in our urban starting zones. Monday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay. Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they can reload do to wind transport. Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity such as the Berhands Path and Chop Gulley the danger is still present. Monday the slabs started out as 8-10" of low density soft slab. As this wind event continues the slab depth can grow do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities will build as long as this wind event continues. So it becomes slightly harder to trigger yet the force of the avalanche is increasing should it be triggered. A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on. Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. This layer has had more time to settle and bond and continues to gain strength yet remains present. Recent avalanche activity has not shown anything propagating down to this deeper weak layer yet it could become reactive in the future if we see extreme weather. Throughout last weeks storm we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. That does not take into consideration the windloading as well so in areas the slab thickness could be much greater. There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones which is a very good thing. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas. So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+" and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them. This creates the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present. Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large. Recognize some of the factors leading to avalanche are present and danger continues due to windloading. AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches are unlikely, yet possible, and human triggered avalanches are still quite possible. These are still dangerous avalanche conditions. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Just this week there was a fatality on a MODERATE danger day in Montana. Please understand with triggers present avalanches are still possible. Heightened avalanche conditions remain on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully identifying features of concern.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-18

Fri, 18 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 24. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 4 TO 9 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS 18 TO 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received over 10" of light new snow last Sunday into Monday at tram summit elevations. This new snow has now had some time to settle and bond to the old snow surface. Temperatures fell throughout the storm and remain cold still. Winds have been considerable for the last week and continue to load our urban paths yet transport rates have declined considerably in the last 24 hours. The longer this wind event lasts the less snow there is available for transport. So in time danger starts to decrease do to less rapid loading and time for settlement and bonding. Monday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay. Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they could have slightly reloaded do to wind transport. Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity such as the Berhands Path and Chop Gulley the danger is still present. Monday the slabs started out as 8-10" of low density soft slab. As the wind event continued the slab depth grew in areas do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities built while this wind event continued. So it has become slightly harder to trigger yet the force of the avalanche is increasing should it be triggered. A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on. Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer. This layer has had more time to settle and bond and continues to gain strength yet remains present. Recent avalanche activity has not shown anything propagating down to this deeper weak layer yet it could become reactive in the future if we see extreme weather. Throughout last weeks storm we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement. That does not take into consideration the windloading as well so in areas the slab thickness could be much greater. There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones which is a very good thing. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas. So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+" and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them. This creates the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present. Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large. Recognize some of the factors leading to avalanche are present. AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches are unlikely, and human triggered avalanches are still possible. These are still concerning avalanche conditions. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. Just this week there was a fatality on a MODERATE danger day in Montana. Please understand with triggers present avalanches are still possible. Heightened avalanche conditions remain on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully identifying features of concern.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-19

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TONIGHT...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 11 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 10 TO 17 INCHES. BREEZY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 25. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. We have seen 12" of snow in the last 24 hours at tram summit elevations and it continues to stack up at rapid rates. We are expecting as much as a foot or more in the next 12 hours. This is a red flag indicator of high avalanche danger. Winds of 15 to 35 MPH are crossloading our starting zones. Eaglecrest and Douglas Island Winds have been much higher averaging from 25-40 gusting over 50 during this first part of the storm. True summit winds may have been higher along the channel as well but the Mt Roberts Gauge is located only at 1800'. The wind loading at this rate is another red flag indicator of building avalanche conditions. Temperatures have increased by 7 degrees during this first part of the storm and are expected to rise another few degrees during the day tomorrow. This considerable warming trend is not a good thing for avalanche conditions. As this snow continues to stack up at rapid rates accompanied by warming and high winds danger levels are HIGH. Tomorrow will be a great day to head up to Eaglecrest. By later tonight natural avalanches are likely and skier triggered avalanches are very likely. Please avoid places like The Flume and Perseverance Trails as well as walking and jogging along Thane Road. Slide sizes are growing to the size of a concern as we progress through the later part of this snowstorm. Remember the basics of avalanche safety. Simply Avoid Avalanche Terrain During Periods of High Danger. Without an avalanche transceiver, probe, shovel and a partner you have no ability to respond in companion rescue. But by simply avoiding avalanche terrain you can eliminate the need. Be Safe, Make good decisions, and Have a great day! Its NUKIN!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-20

Sun, 20 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 25. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR...BREEZY...COLDER. LOWS 14 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We have seen 55mm of precipitation and 40cm of snow in the last 36 hours at tram summit elevations. Winds averaged 20+ mph the entire time along the channel and closer to 30 mph on Douglas Island with gusts into the 50's. Temperatures warmed by 7 degrees during this snow event. These are all red flag indicators of Direct Action Avalanches. Winds have died off now but will be changing direction and picking back up this afternoon. With not much wind or new precipitation in the forecast for today Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches are still possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and good decision making are the rules for the day if your headed out to play. Recognize areas of great weakness exist and with the addition of the trigger (YOU) avalanches are quite possible. Today will be a great day at Eaglecrest. But still a touchy day in the backcountry. Please continue to avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Please continue to avoid walking and jogging along Thane Road until this new wind slab has had time to settle and bond.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-21

Mon, 21 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 13 TO 19. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 19 TO 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOWS 8 TO 16. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We saw 55mm of precipitation and 40cm of snow in 36 hours at tram summit elevations from Friday to Saturday. Winds averaged 20+ mph the entire time along the channel and closer to 30 mph on Douglas Island with gusts into the 50's. Temperatures warmed by 7 degrees during this snow event. These are all red flag indicators of Direct Action Avalanches. Winds have died off for the most part now. With not much wind or new precipitation in the forecast for today Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches are still possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. Yesterday quite a few people got a good surprise as they surfed out avalanches around the region... Be Careful out there danger is there and waiting for you. These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and good decision making are the rules for the day if your headed out to play. Recognize areas of great weakness exist and with the addition of the trigger (YOU) avalanches are quite possible. Today will be a great day at Eaglecrest. But still a touchy day in the backcountry. Please continue to avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Please continue to avoid walking and jogging along Thane Road until this new wind slab has had time to settle and bond.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-22

Tue, 22 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 1 TO 11. COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY...WINDY. HIGHS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 30 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOWS 5 TO 13. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We saw 55mm of precipitation and 40cm of snow in 36 hours at tram summit elevations from Friday to Saturday. Then another 12cm of snow on Sunday night. Winds averaged 20+ mph during the main part of the storm along the channel and closer to 30 mph on Douglas Island with gusts into the 50's. Then died down durning the last 12cm leaving light loose snow available for wind transport today. Temperatures warmed by 7 degrees during this snow event. These are all red flag indicators of Direct Action Avalanches. With direct loading wind in the forecast for today Avalanche Danger is Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches are still possible and human triggered avalanches remain likely in areas. The last two days quite a few people got a surprise as they surfed out avalanches around the region... Be Careful out there, danger is still there and waiting for you. The slab has had additional time to settle and bond yet pockets of instability still exist. These are dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and good decision making are the rules for the day if your headed out to play. Recognize areas of great weakness exist and with the addition of the trigger (YOU) avalanches are quite possible. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features exist. Identify snow and terrain features carefully and identify features of concern. This light loose snow on top will be cleaning itself off of rocks, trees, and steep open pitches in the form of Point release avalanches. In areas these point releases can become quite large. Even creating the ability for a fracture to propagate down to the deeper weak layers in place. Small slabs will also be building with this wind and have the ability to trigger larger slabs should they release.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-23

Wed, 23 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 24 TO 30. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN DECREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOWS 4 TO 14. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 28. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 23. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We saw 55mm of precipitation and 40cm of snow in 36 hours at tram summit elevations from Friday to Saturday. Then another 12cm of snow on Sunday night. Winds averaged 20+ mph during the main part of the storm along the channel and closer to 30 mph on Douglas Island with gusts into the 50's. Then died down durning the last 12cm leaving light loose snow available for wind transport. Temperatures warmed by 7 degrees during this snow event. These are all red flag indicators of Direct Action Avalanches. With direct loading wind for our urban avalanche zones in the forecast for today Avalanche Danger remains MODERATE at this time. As the winds continue there is continually less snow available for transport and loading yet this remains a concern. Natural avalanches are not likely and yet human triggered avalanches remain quite possible in areas. The last few days quite a few people got a surprise as they surfed out avalanches around the region... Be Careful out there, danger is still there and waiting for you. The slab has had additional time to settle and bond yet pockets of instability still exist. Natural avalanches continue to be sighted throughout the region as recently as yesterday. There are heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Be sure to identify snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern. Recognize areas of weakness exist and with the addition of the trigger (YOU) avalanches are quite possible. This light loose snow on top will be cleaning itself off of rocks, trees, and steep open pitches in the form of Point release avalanches. In areas these point releases can become quite large. Even creating the ability for a fracture to propagate down to the deeper weak layers in place. Small slabs will also be building with this wind and have the ability to trigger larger slabs should they release.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-24

Thu, 24 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES SOUTH OF JUNEAU. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 17 TO 23...EXCEPT 3 TO 9 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS AND IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We are still seeing some active windloading. This windloading is creating shallow slabs in areas and continuing to build deeper slabs in others. The shallow slabs are still weak and may easily be triggered by loose snow sluffs off of rocks, trees, and even simply by more windloading. Most of this slide activity is limited to steeper pitches and open areas. The deeper weak layers of instability appear to be gaining strenth. As todays winds die off danger levels will decrease. Please understand this is not a backcountry forecast. In the backcountry with the presence of human triggers the potential for avalanches is greater. We have seen a great deal of slab instability within the region in the last week.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-25

Fri, 25 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS 5 TO 13. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TEENS LATE. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. The snowpack has settled and bonded over 20cm in the last week. Winds have died off in the last 36 hours and will remain low to moderate today. There are still a few small shallow slabs that are tender in areas yet the deeper instabilities continue to strengthen. With almost no new snow in the forecast, near freezing temperatures, and moderate winds, avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-26

Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 5 TO 15. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDY...COLDER. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE POSSIBLE IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 4 TO 12. NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE POSSIBLE NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. We have received 12mm of precipitation in the last 12 hours. This came in the form of 11cm of new snows. Temperatures are near freezing and came up gently by 2 degrees during that time. Winds have been light to moderate out of the south ranging from 10-20mph along the channel to 15-25 on the interior of Douglas Island. With new snow available for transport and high winds avalanche danger is considerable at this time. Small slabs may be developing in areas that already had a little previous weakness. Winds will be cleaning snows off of rocks, trees, and steep open faces. This may cause surface sluffing or small slab releases in areas of weakness. As winds switch direction and continue to blow this will add additional stress to the snowpack. Be safe and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-27

Sun, 27 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS ZERO TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 15 BELOW ZERO LATE. MONDAY...SUNNY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 18. NORTHEAST WIND TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 5 TO 11. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. We have received 4-6" of new snow in the last 36 hours. Yesterday there was a great deal of blowing and drifting snow. This wind event is building slabs on our south and southwest facing slopes. Yesterday these slabs were easily skier triggered. Ranging from 4-8" in thickness. Today we may see some natural activity at or near that same depth. As long as wind transport continues these slabs have the ability to grow and turn in to avalanches. The lower weak layers in place appear to be holding and gaining strength so we do not expect avalanches at a deeper level creating a larger size. There is still a possibility of deeper larger avalanches yet they are not predicted. Be safe if you head out into the backcountry. Remember Partner, Transceiver, Probe, Shovel. Choose good lines, make good decisions, and live to play another day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-02-28

Mon, 28 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 16. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 3 TO 9. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 10 BELOW LATE. TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 16. NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 65 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 1 TO 9. NORTHEAST WIND TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. We have received 4-6" of new snow on Friday night. Since that time there has been a great deal of blowing and drifting snow. This wind event is building slabs on our south and southwest facing slopes. These slabs have been easily skier triggered. Ranging from 4-10" in thickness. Today we may see some natural activity at or near that same depth. As long as wind transport continues these slabs have the ability to grow and turn in to avalanches. The lower weak layers in place appear to be holding and gaining strength so we do not expect avalanches at a deeper level creating a larger size. There is still a possibility of deeper larger avalanches yet they are not predicted. Be safe if you head out into the backcountry. Remember Partner, Transceiver, Probe, Shovel. Choose good lines, make good decisions, and live to play another day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-01

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 16. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 6 TO 12. NORTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WIND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 5 TO 13. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. We received 4-6" of new snow on Friday night. Since that time there has been a great deal of blowing and drifting snow. This wind event is building slabs on our south and southwest facing slopes. Early on these slabs were easily skier triggered. Ranging from 4-10" in thickness. Today we may see some natural activity at or near that same depth. As long as wind transport continues these slabs have the ability to grow and turn in to avalanches. The lower weak layers in place appear to be holding and gaining strength so we do not expect avalanches at a deeper level creating a larger size. There is still a possibility of deeper larger avalanches yet they are not predicted. Be safe if you head out into the backcountry. Remember Partner, Transceiver, Probe, Shovel. Choose good lines, make good decisions, and live to play another day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-02

Wed, 02 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 65 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 85 MPH BY LATE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 90 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 24. EAST WIND 30 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 14 TO 22. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We received 4-6" of new snow on last Friday night. Since that time there has been a great deal of blowing and drifting snow. This wind event is building slabs on our south and southwest facing slopes. Early on these slabs were easily skier triggered. Ranging from 4-10" in thickness. Today we may see some natural activity at or near that same depth. As long as wind transport continues these slabs have the ability to grow larger and turn in to avalanches. The lower weak layers in place appear to be holding and gaining strength so we do not expect avalanches at a deeper level creating a larger size. There is still a possibility of deeper larger avalanches yet they are not predicted. We have seen natural releases in the last 24 hours so we know things are near a natural state of failure in places. DOT will be proactively cleaning out some areas of concern on Thane Road today. This will give us a greater indication of how the deeper week layers are holding. This is probably a good day to avoid those trails such as The Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-03

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY...LOCALLY VERY WINDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 23. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 14 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 24. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 12 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. We received 4-6" of new snow on last Friday night. Since that time there has been a great deal of blowing and drifting snow. This wind event is building slabs on our south and southwest facing slopes. Early on these slabs were easily skier triggered. Ranging from 4-10" in thickness. Today we may see some natural activity at or near that same depth. As long as wind transport continues these slabs have the ability to grow larger and turn in to avalanches. The lower weak layers in place appear to be holding and gaining strength so we do not expect avalanches at a deeper level creating a larger size. There is still a possibility of deeper larger avalanches yet they are not predicted. We have seen natural releases in the last 24 hours so we know things are near a natural state of failure in places. DOT performed avalanche control yesterday on Thane road and released one nice Size 2 Avalanche. This shows us the deeper weak layers in this area are holding well. The Mt Juneau Avalanche Paths have seen a little less wind. There has still been tremendous windloading. It appears there has been less scouring. Natural triggered avalanches are still possible as avalanche danger remains Coniderable. This is probably a good day to avoid those trails such as The Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-04

Fri, 04 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 19 TO 25. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS 40 MPH INCREASING TO 80 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY...WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS 14 TO 22. EAST WIND 35 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SATURDAY...BREEZY. SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 12 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 29. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. We have not received any nsow in the last 6 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during that times. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern the longer this wind condition exists. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches still exists. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are Moderate at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-05

Sat, 05 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY...LOCALLY WINDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES LATE. SUNDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 7 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during that times. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern the longer this wind condition exists. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-06

Sun, 06 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 23. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS 22 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 8 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during that times. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern the longer this wind condition exists. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-07

Mon, 07 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 9 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Also during the heat of the day expect to see snow falling off of trees and rocks as well as steep open pitches on sun exposed slopes. This has the ability to create natural point release avalanches that could become large in long steep open areas where they have time to gather mass and momentum. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-08

Tue, 08 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 18 TO 24. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. LOWS 15 TO 21. EAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 10 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Also during the heat of the day expect to see snow falling off of trees and rocks as well as steep open pitches on sun exposed slopes. This has the ability to create natural point release avalanches that could become large in long steep open areas where they have time to gather mass and momentum. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-09

Wed, 09 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...EAST WIND INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY. LOWS 12 TO 22. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. THURSDAY...SUNNY...WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 11 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time. If we do see new snow accompanied with the winds then the danger levels will rise.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-10

Thu, 10 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 10 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS. FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 19 TO 27. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 12 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time. With warmer temperatures and more diurnal fluctuation do to the springtime position from the sun creating snowpack melt/freeze the snowpack starts to become quite solid.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-11

Fri, 11 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 19 TO 27. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. We have not received any snow in the last 13 days. We have had constant winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. Natural Avalanches are becoming less and less of a concern. The slabs in place are bonding and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. The ability for human triggered avalanches may still exists in places. There are still pockets of windloaded slab that could be skier or snowmobile triggered. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time. With warmer temperatures and more diurnal fluctuation do to the springtime position from the sun creating snowpack melt/freeze the snowpack starts to become quite solid.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-12

Sat, 12 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 28 TO 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS 18 TO 24. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 19 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We have not received any new snow in the last 14 days. We have had strong winds from 20-80 mph during most of that time. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. The slabs in place are bonding well to the old snow surface and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. We may start to see some new snow adding up in the next 36 hours. This new snow will be laying on a multitude of different snow surfaces. From windblown slab, to rock and ice, to surface and near surface faceting in some areas. As this new snow comes in wind is expected as well. Even with small amounts of new snow this has the ability to start to build weakness. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-13

Sun, 13 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. MONDAY...CLOUDY...BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY...BREEZY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 22 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. We have not received any new snow in the last 15 days with the exception of an inch from yesterday to today. We have had strong winds from 20-80 mph for the first 10+ days. There has been a great deal of scouring and also wind loading. Spatial variability remains very high. Snow conditions will vary greatly from place to place. The wind formed slabs in place are bonding well to the old snow surface and becoming harder and there is less loose snow available for transport to trigger the slide naturally. We may see a little new snow adding up in the next 36 hours. This new snow will be laying on a multitude of different snow surfaces. From windblown slab, to rock and ice, to surface and near surface faceting in some areas. As this new snow comes in a little wind is expected as well. Even with small amounts of new snow this has the ability to start to build weakness. Avalanche sizes are not expected to be large should they occur. Danger levels are LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-14

Mon, 14 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...BECOMING WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS 28 TO 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS 24 TO 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We had a 2 week dry period that ended on Friday. Winds had been high during most of that time. The lower snowpack is fairly solid in place. We have received 10cm of low density snow in the last 2+ days. Winds pickup up yesterday afternoon and continue to blow this morning out of the ENE starting to load and cross load our urban starting zones. This wind will be building shallow tender slabs. We may see some activity as snow cleans off of trees and rocks in super steep open pitches. This could create point release avalanches or also has the ability to create slab avalanches. This new snow is resting on a multitude of old snow surfaces. How well the new snow bonds to the old snow surface will vary from location to location. Should avalanches occur in the urban areas sizes are not expected to be large. Be safe as you venture out into the backcountry. Spatial variability remains high.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-15

Tue, 15 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...LOCALLY BREEZY. SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND AND SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS 28 TO 34. EAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have come up by about 6c degrees in the last 48 hours and are expected to rise again today and tomorrow during the day to the warmest above freezing temperatures we have seen in a while. This will place additional stress on the snowpack as it settles quite rapidly during this warm period. Winds have been light to moderate. They started out of the NE and are now working around to SE loading west facing slopes and cross loading others. Yet as wind transport remains light not many slabs have built, but still may with light to moderate winds in the forecast again for today. We have seen about 12 cm of snow in the last 3 days. This snow started off quite cool and has been warming throughout additional snowfall slowly placing a little heavier wetter snow on top of the looser lighter snows in place. As we see todays diurnal fluctuation in temperature we may see snow falling off of trees and rocks. In steeper more open areas this has the ability to create surface sluffs and point release avalanches. Since new snow available to avalanche remains at a minimum any avalanches we see today should not be too great in size.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-16

Wed, 16 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET LOWERING TO NEAR SEA LEVEL LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 24 TO 32. EAST WIND 10 MPH. The last large snowfall we had was 2+ weeks ago. Shortly after this snowfall event we had sustained winds of 40-80 mph. The mountain had seen quite a bit of scouring and most of the snowpack was quite solid in place. We have seen 4" of new snows in the last 4 days. All very light snows with only a little bit of wind transport. A few small areas of slab may exist. Yesterday we saw above freezing temperatures during the mid day diurnal fluctuation. This allows for rapid settlement in the snowpack. Temperatures fell overnight to well below freezing again taking the snowpack in place and locking it back up a little again. With not much moisture in the forecast avalanche danger remains low. This spring time raising and lowering of the temperatures to slightly above freezing and below freezing creates a very strong snowpack as long as precipitation loading rates remain low.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-17

Thu, 17 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 21 TO 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Temperatures have warmed by 8 degrees during that time. We have had light to moderate winds. Windloading it present but quite minimal. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and trees as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Danger levels are moderate simply do to new snows and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-18

Fri, 18 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 44. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Temperatures have warmed by 8 degrees during that time. Today we will see the warmest temperatures since February 1st. This places serious additional stress on the snowpack. We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present but quite minimal. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and trees as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. The possibility exists for these avalanches to slide at deeper layers than we have been concerned with in the last few weeks. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW Faces. Danger levels are Considerable today do to new snows from the previous few days and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This will be the warmest day in 7 weeks. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day. Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today. Perhaps it is a good day to avoid places such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL DAY!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-19

Sat, 19 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Today we will see the warmest temperatures since February 1st. This places serious additional stress on the snowpack. We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present but quite minimal. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and trees as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. The possibility exists for these avalanches to slide at deeper layers than we have been concerned with in the last few weeks. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW faces. Danger levels are Considerable today do to new snows from the previous few days and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This will be the warmest day in 7 weeks. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day. Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today. Perhaps it is a good day to avoid places such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL DAY!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-20

Sun, 20 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS. We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Much of which is still soft on north faces but has mostly settled out on sunny south faces. Today we will continue to see the warmest temperatures since February 1st. This places serious additional stress on the snowpack. But as this is day 3 of the same activity should be reduced a little. We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Conditions vary greatly from north to south faces as well. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. The possibility exists for these avalanches to slide at deeper layers than we have been concerned with in the last few weeks. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW faces. Danger levels are Moderate today do to the sun and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This will be the warmest day in 7 weeks. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day. Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today. Perhaps it is a good day to avoid places such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-21

Mon, 21 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS... NORTHEAST WIND TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 19 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTH WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 25 TO 31. LIGHT WINDS. The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS. We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th but none in the last 3 days. Much of which is still soft on north faces but has mostly settled out on sunny south faces. We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present in areas. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Conditions vary greatly from north to south faces as well. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. As this is the 4th sunny day after the new snows and cooler than the last 3 days activity should be reduced today but not eliminated entirely. We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW faces. Danger levels are LOW today do to the wind and cooler temperatures. With todays sun and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones could create some minor avalanche activity. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day. Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-22

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS 24 TO 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 22 TO 28. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have not received any new snows in the last week. Moisture models show very little precipitation in the forecast. We have seen light winds. Today will not see as much solar radiation or diurnal fluctuation. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-23

Wed, 23 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 24 TO 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 42. NORTH WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS 26 TO 32. LIGHT WINDS. We have not received any new snows in the last week. Moisture models show very little precipitation in the forecast. We have seen light winds. Today will not see as much solar radiation or diurnal fluctuation. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-24

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. LOWS 28 TO 36. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received less than 2" of new snows in the last week. This came in night before last. Yesterday temperatures hovered near freezing up high and we should have seen fair to rapid settlement. Moisture models show no precipitation in the forecast. We have seen light winds over the last few days. Yet small pockets of instability are present on N faces in gullies, drainages, and on steep wind deposited areas. Today has seen a lot of direct sunlight and warming. Expect to see point release sluffs in the steep open pitches. Avalanches are not expected to be large yet in longer steep areas with no flat runout they could create a fair amount of mass. Be aware of the slope angle in relation to the sun. Shaded slopes would see less of this type of activity. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Simply do to not being greatly concerned with the size in the urban paths. Yet in the backcountry or on areas up the perseverance trail there still may be a little more concern on those sun exposed faces.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-25

Fri, 25 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 44. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 29 TO 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have only seen 2" of snow in the last week or so. Temperatures yesterday were the warmest so far this spring. Temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to remain warm. We have seen very light winds over the last few days. But this has places small pockets of weakness on north facing slopes in gullies and depressions. Today is forecsat to remain cloudy. Yet if we do see much direct sunlight danger levels will rise mid to late day. Be aware on steeper open faces especially on longer pitches. Avalanche danger is low at this time yet we may still see some mid to late day activity from smaller avalanches.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-26

Sat, 26 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 30 TO 36. LIGHT WINDS. We received 2" of snow 4 days ago. Temperatures have been above freezing at the 1800' level since that time. We have had above freezing temperatures at mountain top levels for the last 3 days and will see continued warming today. Expect to see small wet avalanches today especially if we see much direct sunlight. Danger levels will rise throughout the day and peak in the mid to late afternoon. Slides are not expected to be large yet in steep long open areas they can build quite a bit of mass and momentum. The lower elevation snowpack is rapidly becoming isothermal especially on S and SW facing or sun soaked aspects. Cornices will be getting weak and may be falling off in areas. This too has the ability to trigger slides as it comes down the mountain and entrains mass.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-27

Sun, 27 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 47. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. It has been above freezing for 4 days straight at tram summit elevations. It has been above freezing for 3 days at Eaglecrest summit elevations. We are loosing the glue that bonds the snowpack together. We are starting to see more free moisture in the snowpack which eats at the current bonds in place. The snowpack also tends to settle rapidly at these above freezing temperatures which also places additional stress on it. We are starting to see a lot of spots of dirt and rock showing up on the hillside. This adds to the thermal stress in the pack by absorbing the heat from the sun. Steep areas around rocks and trees continue to releive themselves. Areas with fewer anchors may becoming more suspect especially at lower elevations. Be aware on steep open faces and when sking above others. Right now durnig it is easy to get a little snow moving and it can pick up quite a bit of mass and momentum. Slide sizes are not expected to be large. But the longer this above freezing temperature persists the greater the danger for deeper weak layers to become reactive.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-28

Mon, 28 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 44. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. It has been above freezing for 5 days straight at tram summit elevations. It has been above freezing for 4 days at Eaglecrest summit elevations. We are loosing the glue that bonds the snowpack together. We are starting to see more free moisture in the snowpack which eats at the current bonds in place. Even that little rain overnight adds to this. The snowpack also tends to settle rapidly at these above freezing temperatures which also places additional stress on it. We are starting to see a lot of spots of dirt and rock showing up on the hillside. This adds to the thermal stress in the pack by absorbing the heat from the sun. Steep areas around rocks and trees continue to releive themselves. Areas with fewer anchors may becoming more suspect especially at lower elevations. Be aware on steep open faces and when sking above others. Right now durnig it is easy to get a little snow moving and it can pick up quite a bit of mass and momentum. Slide sizes are not expected to be large. But the longer this above freezing temperature persists the greater the danger for deeper weak layers to become reactive. We are not expecting as much direct sunlight today and temperatures are predicted to be slightly cooler. So danger levels have been dropped from high to Considerable. Yet avalanches remain possible.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-29

Tue, 29 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have fallen a little today. We are seeing freezing temperatures at Eaglecrest summit elevations this morning for the first time in 5 days. We are expecting a little rain later today. The clouds in place should help keep solar radiation to a minimum. Currently avalanche danger is Moderate yet as this rain comes in on top of the last 5 days of above freezing temperatures we continue to weaken the snowpack. Through this afternoon to tonight danger levels will rise to Considerable. Should this rain fully materialize we may even see danger levels rise to HIGH. One thing to consider in the Urban avalanche paths which is good. Even though danger levels will be high which means natural avalanches are likely... the sizes are not expected to be great. We are rapidly loosing snow at mid and lower mountain levels which will help to reduce the concern as the mass deteriorates. Remain aware in places like the Flume and Perseverance Trails with danger levels increasing as we start to see this rain, especially if it comes in with much quantity. Remain aware on steep open pitches as the mountains are continuing to sluff off wet loose snow avalanches. More so than the danger level currently would indicate.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-30

Wed, 30 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

TODAY, RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 46.SOUTHEAST WIND 10/20MPH. TONIGHT,RAIN SHOWERS.LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10/15MPH. THURSDAY, RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10/15 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received the first freezing temperatures in 5 days last night at tram summit elevations and higher. We have seen a great deal of above freezing temperatures down low. Much of the lower elevation snowpack is quite moisture saturated at this time and deteriorating rapidly. At upper elevations we received a little new snow last night. This new snow will not bond well and tend to sluff off of trees, rocks, and steep open faces. Be aware these sluffs quite easily become point release avalanches and can entrain quite a bit of mass in longer pitches. Recognizing the lower snowpack has seen a lot of above freezing temperature and is becoming quite rotten, expect to see any point release avalanches coming through these lower elevations cleanout the rotten snow. Although danger is high meaning natural avalanches are likely, larger slides are not predicted. Yet with constant precipitation for the next few days, the ability to trigger deeper weak layers exists. Expect to see activity peak during the warmest part of the day as diurnal fluctuation remains strong with 8-10 degree daily temperature swings.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-03-31

Thu, 31 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures did not get as warm as expected yesterday and continued to cool slightly overnight. Today will remain slightly cooler than the last few days as well. We have seen several inches of snow in the last 48 hours at summit elevations with winds out of the SSe averaging over 20 knots. This can tend to cross load our gullies. Yet in the BC makes for additional loading on N-NNW slopes. Forecast precip accumulation totals are less than .4" today and .4" tomorrow am and tapering off. This is a moderate loading rate. This new snow up high may see some small movement in areas off of steep open pitches. Snows falling off of trees and rocks can even start small point release slides in this wet heavy snow. Slide sizes are not expected to be large.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-01

Fri, 01 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 500 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have seen quite a bit of rain in the last few days. At upper elevations this came in the form of heavy dense snows. We have accumulated as much as a foot of new snow in places. Moderate winds were in effect for the first part of the storm out of the SSE loading our NNW Slopes. The last 24 hours has seen less wind effect along the channel while Douglas Island loading winds have remained moderate. Temperatures have fallen slightly over the last few days which has helped with the new snow stability. Be cautious of tender new slabs should you be out playing in the BC. With the addition of another .4" of precip today natural avalanches are possible but not likely, and urban slide sizes are still not predicted to be that large should they occur.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-02

Sat, 02 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 44. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received well over a foot of snow at summit elevations in the last 4 days. This snow came in quite wet and warm and has bonded fairly well to the old snow surface. Temperatures have cooled slightly since that time. We have had moderate loading winds out of the SSE yet do to the densities of the snow wind transport and drifting has remained light. We are not expected to see much direct sunlight today conditions are predicted to remain cloudy. Danger levels are Moderate at this time. Should we start to see much direct sunlight during the heat of the day danger levels may rise to considerable as the snow starts to fall off of trees, rocks, and sluffing in steep open pitches.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-03

Sun, 03 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received about a foot of new snow at mountain top elevations in the last 4 days. Temperatures have been consistant and falling slightly since the beginning of the storm. The new snow appears to have bonded well to the old snow surface. We did see some moderate SSE winds loading our NNW faces a little. Today temperatures are predicted to remain cooler than the last few days. Winds are predicted to be light to moderate. And forecast precip levels appear to be light as well. Avalanche danger is moderate at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-04

Mon, 04 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received well over 15" of snow up high in the last 5 days. The snow came in as rain and slowly cooled over a few days. The bonding to the old snow surface appears to be strong. We have seen a fair amount of winds from the SSE loading our NNW faces and cross loading gullies up high in the start zones. Temperatures are forecast to remain cool today but will be increasing as much as an additional 4 degrees tomorrow. This will start to add increased stress to the snowpack. Todays avalanche danger is moderate with .37" of additional precip in the forecast in the next 24 hours. If we get many sunbreaks expect danger levels to rise to considerable as trees, rocks, and steep open faces would then shed themselves of the last few days snows. This could start point release or small slab avalanches. Yet the forecast is for conditions to remain cloudy. Be cautious if you choose to head into the backcountry conditions vary greatly do to elevation and aspect. There is quite a bit more snow up high in our region than in our forecast area.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-05

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 47. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. We have received almost 4"(100mm) of rain over the last 8 days. Depending on elevation the snow amounts varied greatly. The Mt Roberts 1800' Weather Station is showing about 30cm of new snows from during that time period. Eaglecrest UAS Snow Sites is showing about 27cm for the same time. Just above that elevation, at or near ridgeline, there may be quite a bit more snow than that. Windloading has been low to moderate. Temperatures fell during most of the snow. Today we will see higher midday temperatures than we have the last few days. This will place stress on the snow. Should we see cloud breaks and direct sunlight this too will place additional stress on the snow. If we get much direct sunlight today danger levels may rise to considerable. Watch for snow falling off trees and rocks. Watch for point release avalanches on steep open faces. If the afternoon sun comes out it may be a good day to avoid trails such as The Flume and Perseverance Trail. Any slides that should occur are expected to be small in size.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-06

Wed, 06 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS 26 TO 32. LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With no new snow in the last 24 hours, no measurable precip in the forecast, no notable winds, and temperatures holding consistant with yesterday avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Once again if we see much direct wunlight look to see snow falling off of trees and rocks starting point release avalanches in steeper longer open pitches. Should any slides occur, they are not expected to be of any size.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-07

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 46. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With cloudy conditions, no new snow in the last few days, no measurable precip in the forecast, no notable winds, and temperatures holding consistant with yesterday avalanche danger is LOW at this time. If we see much direct sunlight look to see snow falling off of trees and rocks starting point release avalanches in steeper longer open pitches. Yet the forecast is for cloudy conditions.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-08

Fri, 08 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Last night we received about 13mm of precipitation which added up to about 9cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. There could be several inches more at higher elevations. Eaglecrest received about the same mid-mountain at the UAS Site. Winds averaged over 20mph during the precipitation event from the South adding additional stress to the North facing slopes. With less than .4" of precipitation in the forecast for today avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. There may be heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify those features of concern. Natural avalanches are unlikely, yet human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas. The snowpack is mostly stable. Be cautious of steep open faces with long runouts.... Be aware of possible windloading... Check to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface in the areas YOU choose to ride...

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-09

Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS. We have received 29mm of precipitation at tram summit elevations in the last 36 hours. This delivered 21cm of dense new snows at that elevation. Eaglecrest is showing 20 cm of new snow as well at the UAS mid mountain plot. Winds averaged well over 20 knots during the first 30 hours of the storm and have since died off. Winds were out of the SSE placing additional stress on our NNW faces. Look to see crossloading in the urban avalanche zones. We have seen an average of a few degrees of diurnal daily warming recently this adds stress to the snowpack during the warming and warmest periods of the day... With nearly 30mm(1.2") of precip in the last 36 hours, yet less than .3" of precipitation in the forecast for today and temperatures one degree cooler than yesterday, avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. There may be heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify those features of concern. Natural avalanches are unlikely, yet human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas. The snowpack is mostly stable. Be cautious of convex slopes above steep open faces with long runouts.... Be aware of possible windloading... Check to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface in the areas YOU choose to ride... Yesterday field work revealed trigger sensative areas in wind loaded pockets both at ridgeline and even lower down the mountain. Although time is our friend and the new snow will start to bond to the old snow surface, with increased loading today human triggered avalanches are still quite possible in areas. Should avalanches occur they are not expected to be of any size in the urban areas to be concerned with.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-10

Sun, 10 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 43. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. We have received 37mm of precipitation at tram summit elevations in the last 60 hours. This delivered 24cm of dense new snows at that elevation after settlement. Eaglecrest is showing 20 cm of new snow as well at the UAS mid mountain plot. Winds averaged well over 20 knots during the first 30 hours of the storm, slowed for about 10 yours then returned to 15-30 knots. Winds were out of the SSE placing additional stress on our NNW faces. Look to see crossloading in the urban avalanche zones. We have seen an average of a few degrees of diurnal daily warming recently this adds stress to the snowpack during the warming and warmest periods of the day... With nearly 38mm(1.5") of precip in the last 36 hours, yet less than .2" of precipitation in the forecast for today and temperatures one degree cooler than yesterday, avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. There may be heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Be sure to evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify those features of concern. Natural avalanches are unlikely, yet human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas. The snowpack is mostly stable. Be cautious of convex slopes above steep open faces with long runouts.... Be aware of possible windloading... Check to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface in the areas YOU choose to ride... Yesterday field work continued to reveal trigger sensative areas in wind loaded pockets both at ridgeline and even lower down the mountain. It is quite spatially variable yet be aware the mousetrap has been set in places. Although time is our friend and the new snow will start to bond to the old snow surface, with increased loading today from new snow and wind human triggered avalanches are still quite possible in areas. Should avalanches occur they are not expected to be of any size in the urban areas to be concerned with.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-11

Mon, 11 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. We have received 23cm of snow in the last 5 days at near freezing temperatures. Winds have been fairly constant out of the SSE. With avarages well into the 20's at times. Most of this new snow has bonded fairly well. Look for see pockets of weakness in windloaded areas. With very little precipitation in the forecast and cool cloudy conditions avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural Avalanches are unlikely yet human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated areas. If we should see much direct sunlight watch to see point release avalanches forming from snows falling off of rocks, trees, cornices falling and steep open pitches... Any activity is not expected to be of any size in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-12

Tue, 12 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS. With cool temperatures in place and very little precipitation in the forecast avalanche danger is LOW at this time. It is supposed to remain cloudy today. Should we see much direct sunlight you could expect danger levels to rise.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-13

Wed, 13 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 33. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received 53mm of precipitation in the last 6 days. This translated into about 28cm of snow at tram summit elevations after settlement. During the first part of this storm we had strong SSE Winds placing deeper slabs on our NNW facing slopes. As well as cross loading others. This weak layer started quite sensative but has since bonded a bit more to the old snow surface. Areas of weakness are still present even through not widespread do to spatial variability. Temperatures yesterday were the warmest they have been in over a week. Yesterday and the day before a few naturally released slab avalanches were sighted around the region. Todays forecast is for even warmer temperatures. Natural avalanches are possible... mostly in the form of point release avalanches. As this new snow warms to above freezing temperatures the glue is removed from the snowpack. Watch to see rapid settlement in the pack. On steep open slopes this often comes in the form of point release avalanches. As the snow cleans itself off of the trees, rocks and cornices if falls down onto a point on the slope face. As it continues to flow downhill like the sands in an hourglass it continues to gather mass through the steep open areas... This avalanche that was released from a single point is referred to as a point release avalanche. We do not expect avalanches of any size today. Yet there is a possibility of a deeper slab avalanche in areas. These may require more stress to trigger than the point releases. They could occur naturally, yet are more likely with the presence of human triggers or propagation from a point release avalanche. With any direct sunlight, especially for prolonged periods, expect danger levels to increase. The snowpack is most stable during the morning and more at question during the heat of the day, especially on southern exposures.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-14

Thu, 14 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 47. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS 30 TO 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Yesterdays temperatures were the warmest we have seen in a while. This created a lot of spring like surface snow conditions. Many small point release avalanches were sighted around the region. Today is forecast to be warm as well with very little precipitation. We may see some continued point release avalanche activity. Slide sizes are forecast to be small. No large slab activity is expected. Be aware on longer steeper more open pitches as there is the possibility of more mass gathering and more momentum developing... Be cautious of terrain traps... And areas of high exposure... If conditions remain cloudy activity will be minimized. Yet is we see much direct sunlight on our sw facing zones be aware as danger levels will increase throughout the warmest part of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-15

Fri, 15 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU. HIGHS AROUND 47. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 46. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures have been above freezing at 1800' since 4/12 at 9am. We are starting to loose the glue in the snowpack especially at lower elevations. Todays temperatures are forecast to be quite warm again. Even though rain is in the forecast accumulation rates are quite low. The snowpack has been settling well over 2" a day at 1800'. This is good for stability on these slopes once the snowpack freezes again. But on the vertical plane this settlement often comes in the form of wet avalanches. Mostly point release avalanches. Look to see continued point release avalanche activity especially during the heat of the day on sun exposed faces. These slides are not forecast to be of any size of concern in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-16

Sat, 16 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU. LOWS AROUND 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 48. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have been above freezing at 1800' since 4/12 at 9am. We are starting to loose the glue in the snowpack especially at lower elevations. Todays temperatures are forecast to be quite warm again. Even though rain is in the forecast accumulation rates are quite low. The snowpack has been settling well over 2" a day at 1800'. This is good for stability on these slopes once the snowpack freezes again. But on the vertical plane this settlement often comes in the form of wet avalanches. Mostly point release avalanches. Look to see continued point release avalanche activity especially during the heat of the day on sun exposed faces. These slides are not forecast to be of any size of concern in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-17

Sun, 17 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF JUNEAU IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 28. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 49. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Todays forecast temperature is the warmest of this year so far. Temperatures have been above freezing at 1800' since 4/12 at 9am. We are starting to loose the glue in the snowpack especially at lower elevations. The snowpack has been settling well over 2" a day at 1800' on average for the last week. This is good for stability on these slopes once the snowpack freezes again. But on the vertical plane this settlement during the heat of the day often comes in the form of wet avalanches. Mostly point release avalanches. Look to see continued point release avalanche activity especially during the heat of the day on sun exposed faces. These slides are not forecast to be of any size of concern in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-18

Mon, 18 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 48. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 47. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures touched on freezing last night at tram summit elevations for the first time in over a week. Temperatures are expected to be warm again today. This melt freeze is creating additional strength in the snowpack up high. We may see some small point release avalanche activity today during the heat of the afternoon yet sizes are not expected to be of concern in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-19

Tue, 19 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 49. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 45. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures have touched freezing for only about 12 hours in the last 7 days at tram summit elevations. Todays sun will brind continued point release avalanches during the heat of the day on steep open faces. Look to see some cornices becoming weak as well during this warm sunny weather. Slides are not expected to be large enough to be concerning in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-20

Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have remained quite warm over the last week. Last night they took a good drop to well below freezing for the first time in a while. Todays cloudy weather should help to minimize avalanche activity. Yet be aware small point release avalanches are still possible. Especially during the warmest part of the afternoon.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-21

Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures dropped below freezing at tram summit elevations Wednesday morning quite early and have remained mostly below freezing since at that elevation. We saw 4.6mm of moisture come in as 6cm of new snows above tram summit elevations. We may see some of this new snow sluffing off at times. Especially if we see much warming or direct sunlight today. Todays forecast for continued rains places some additional stress on the snowpack as well. Slides are not predicted to be of any size of concern in the urban paths.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-22

Fri, 22 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 51. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received 10 mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours. This came as about 6cm of snows at tram summit elevations. Perhaps a little more up higher. Winds were low-moderate out of the SSE. Temperatures have been hovering very near to freezing which often helps for rapid settlement and bonding. Todays forecast is for continued cool weather, clouds and rain. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. This new snow and rain does place additional stress on the snowpack. We are getting to fairly late in the season now and are starting to have less of a concern in the urban areas simply do to the reduction of volumes in those slide paths in the last 3 weeks.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-04-23

Sat, 23 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 51. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures will be quite warm today. We saw a little new snows in the last 2 days at summit elevations. We may see some small point release avalanche activity today as this warm weather builds stress in the new snows. Any avalanche activity today is not expected to be of any size of concern in the urban areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-05-01

Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 -0800

The Urban Avalanche Forecast has been suspended for the 2010-2011 Season... Look again to see it online around Thanksgiving time next fall.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-14

Mon, 14 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- Tonight...Snow showers...becoming heavy at times by late evening. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Lows around 28. West wind 10 mph shifting to the east in the evening. Tuesday...Snow showers likely...mainly in the morning. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Highs around 32. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday Night...Snow. Snow accumulation 2 to 6 inches. Lows around 24. Southeast wind 10 to 20 mph. It is still early in the seaon and we do not have mid to late season snow amounts in the starting zones. Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time due to the heavy precip and accumulation rates. Slide sizes are not expected to be huge yet could be a concern as this new snow continues to stack up. Watch for warming tomorrow to increase danger and natural activity. Give this new snow time to settle and bond. Watch for areas along the FLUME trail. Backcountry danger levels will be high for a few days until this new snow has time to settle and bond. Be safe out there if you even choose to go at all. Time is your friend when you get big snowfall events like this be patient.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-16

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

Avalanche danger in the urban areas is dropping. With a little warming today and fair winds in the forecast danger remaing considerable. With windloading today be aware danger levels may go to high in the backcountry. The regular avalanche forecast will begin next Wednesday with greater snowpack detail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-16

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-17

Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 21. EAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 2 TO 12...EXCEPT AROUND ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. With lots of new snow in the last week and windloading through the last several days, avalanche danger is Considerable. Slides are not expected to be large enough to affect the urban areas yet could be a concern for backcountry users! Be safe out there and make educated conservative decisions! Now is the time to start digging holes to look at the snowpack layering... Have you taken a level I avalanche course yet so you have the knowledge on how to make educated backcountry decisions? Remember your transceiver, probe, and shovel! As well as a well trained partner!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-23

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

Welcome to the 2011-12 Avalanche Forecast Season. The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 INCHES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. On the Mount Roberts Weather Station we have received 14mm of precipitation and roughly 11cm of snow in the last 12 hours including the settlement in the overall snowpack. The Eaglecrest UAS site shows roughly the same, with slightly more new snow. Winds have been blowing 10-20 knots per hour and gusting to the upper 20's during this new snowfall out of the SE. Temperatures are predicted to warm up slightly today before cooling back down again tomorrow. With moderate new loading both from new snow and wind in the last 12 hours, as well as slightly rising temperatures with more snow and wind in the forecast, avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Be aware there is still not much consolidation in the snowpack. Look for a weak layer deeper down in the snowpack. Yesterdays quick test scores showed it to be weak in areas. This is a layer we have seen avalanche activity on already this seson but now lies dormant in places. Watch to see how this weak layer responds as we continue to place new snow on it over the next few days. If you see avalanche activity you find of interest... Please feel tree to send in your observations to Tom_Mattice@ci.juneau.ak.us

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-24

Thu, 24 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 29. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 19 TO 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With 37mm of precipitation creating 37cm of new snow in the last 36 hours avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. Temperatures have remained cool with only 4 degrees of change during that time and currently having fallen 2 degrees overall... Winds have been fairly calm during the storm. They have picked up a little in the last few hours but are not forecast to be high. Yet with the massive volume of new snow during this 36 hour period the SE wind direction should be taken into consideration. Avalanches in the Urban Zones are not forecast to be large. The new snow forecast and winds are to be light over the next two days while temperatures are to cool slightly. Without the presence of additional triggers we may sneak by with little or no activity in the urban zones over the next few days. Be aware in the backcountry this storm has places a lot of new snow on the hill. There will be sensative areas for avalanching over the next few days expecially when you add the presence of a large trigger (YOU). Today is a good day to really be safe out there... Pick your terrain and exposure carefully. Make conservative decisions. Watch for sluffing and the possibility of larger avalanches on big open faces. Remember- Transceiver, Probe, and Shovel as well as a well trained partner. Dont leave home without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-25

Fri, 25 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 27. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. We have seen 40cm of new snows in the last 48 hours. Most of which came in the first 30 hours of this storm. It remained calm most of yesterday with little to no winds and no measurable new snows. This has given the new snow a little time to settle and bond to the previous snowpack in place. You may still find areas of weakness on large open faces, steep convex breakovers, and on unanchored slopes. With not much wind or snow in the forecast for today avalanche danger has been reduced to Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Once again, be aware in the backcountry this storm has places a lot of new snow on the hill. There will be sensative areas for avalanching over the next few days expecially when you add the presence of a large trigger (YOU). Today is a good day to really be safe out there... Pick your terrain and exposure carefully. Make conservative decisions. Watch for sluffing and the possibility of larger avalanches on big open faces. Remember- only one rider on the slope at a time! Spot your partners from top and bottom at safe locations. RULE #1- Transceiver, Probe, and Shovel as well as a well trained partner. Dont leave home without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-26

Sat, 26 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 20 TO 24. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. On the Mt Roberts Tram Wx station we have received 50mm of precipitation in the last 4 days that has left us with a total of 38cm of new snow after settlement. We had a few short warm periods and wind events during the storm that left some small weak layers in the snowpack. Most of the wind activity has been out of the SE. Today look to see those winds changing direction. Yesterday Avalanche activity was minimal and the snowpack appears to be settling and bonding well. We did receive an additional 8cm of new snow yesterday during which time we had a moderate amount of wind. Todays temperatures are expected to be the warmest in the last 4 days. There is still a posibility of Human Triggered Avalanches in the Backcountry.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-27

Sun, 27 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have quite a deep snowpack for early in the season with not much consolidation. We have seen quite a bit of settlement over the last few days which builds strength into the snowpack slowly over time. Yesterdays snowpit results showed multiple weak layers with slightly heavier denser snow laying on top of looser lighter snows. This created a condition where the loose layer will settle under the weight of the denser layer. During that settlement if you have propagation you may see activity in the form of an avalanche. All tests showed that although there is the presence of weak layers... there is not much energy in those layers. We are not seeing any significant fracture propagation. Mostly the new snows are settling in place and test scores were high. Avalanche danger is essentially low in the Urban areas. With large volumes of snow and not much in the way of hard layers or bridging I am still concerned with some slopes. The ground underneath is still not frozen and this has the potential to add creep tension in to the snowpack. Steep, Open faces, with convex terrain and no anchors (rock or grass slopes) may still have some avalanche potential. But generally things are looking good. Be sure to asses the conditions specifically for the sites you choose to play in! This forecast is not for the backcountry. I try to point out things to look at when you go about making your own personal decisions. The hard thing about the current layering in place is determining if we did have an avalanche, at what snowdepth it would occur. Remember- Transceiver, Probe, Shovel and a well trained partner... Practice practice practice... make good decisions and live to play another day... Have a great Sunday!!!!!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-28

Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET DECREASING TO 400 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. We have quite a bit of loose unconsolidated snow on the ground. Ranging from about 165cm at tram summit levels to about 250cm at local summit elevations. There is not much in the way of crust in the layering. The Mt Roberts Tram weather station shows we have received about 22mm of precipitation in the last 12 hours this came in the form of about 18cm of new snows. This is some of the wettest heaviest snow we have seen in a while on top of quite a bit of looser lighter snows that were in place... A loading rate of 25mm of precip per day is a red flag indicator of building avalanche conditions. You can see we have reached almost that in less than 12 hours. Winds went from almost zero to 30+ knot averages over the last 12 hours as well... This too is a red flag indicator of building avalanche conditions. Temperatures have risen 4+ degrees in the last 24 hours and are expected to continue to rise today up through the freezing point to 1400'... Temperatures rising during heavy precip and winds are also a red flag indicator of building avalanche conditions. Temperatures today will be the warmest we have seen in over a week during which time we have received over 50cm(2feet) of new snows after settlement and consolidation. With 3 out of 3 weather readings giving us red flag indicators of building avalanche conditions, Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time... Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Todays precipitation loading rates are not high to extreme(we expect about .31" of moisture)... but with added windloading to an upside down pack... this is still a concern... There has not been much in the way of active avalanche activity in the last few weeks. There are not many pronounced base and slide layers in the pack. So although we are rapidly building concerning avalanche conditions... there is not currently an active layer they are running on... This warm weather, loading, and precip will create a tremendous amount of settlement and stress on the snowpack. The only question that remains is will this pack settle in place... or in the vertical motion in the form of an avalanche. Today is a good day to avoid the backcountry, the flume trail, and any other avalanche zones in the community.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-29

Tue, 29 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE STEADY AROUND 36 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY AND CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 200 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With just below freezing temperatures above 1800' and not much precipitation or wind in the forecast avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. We have quite a bit of loose unconsolidated snow on the ground at upper mountain elevations. Ranging from about 165cm at tram summit levels to about 250cm at local summit elevations. There is not much in the way of crust in the layering to create good shear planes. The Mt Roberts Tram weather station shows we have received about 26mm of precipitation in the last 36 hours this came in the form of about 18cm of new snows into yesterday. Today with overall settlement in the last 24 hours due to warmer temperatures and time we have lost 5cm. This is some of the wettest heaviest snow we have seen in a while on top of quite a bit of looser lighter snows that were in place... Although we lack a significant natural triggers today to start avalanches in the urban zones do to no winds or precip...the possibility of human triggered avalanches in the backcountry still exists. This continued warm weather and settlement is a good thing long term.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-11-30

Wed, 30 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING BECOMING ALL RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. Temperatures have remained near freezing and below from 1500' to our local summits for the last few days. We are seeing rapid settlement in the snowpack at these near freezing temperatures which is a good thing for long term stability. During the end of our storm the last 3 days we have seen over 30mm of precip with all wetter heavier snow on top of the looser lighter snows that were in place all season. This has created a slightly upside down snowpack placing heavier denser snows over looser lighter snows. This creates weakness in the snowpack. The last few days we have seen lots of settlement. This starts to crush and create higher densities in the lower snowpack. So although the storm came in upside down. Over time the lower snows start to become as strong as the denser snow above it. But it takes time and in areas may still be weak especially with the continual addition of new snows and windloading. Avalanche Danger is Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. Tonight into tomorrow we will start to see increased precip rates. It has already warmed up more than the original forecast adding to the stress and increasing todays danger through the night into tomorrow. Tomorrows 40+ degree temps will again be the highest we have seen in recent days. We may see some natural activity througout tonight and into tomorrow with the high precip rates.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-01

Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

WOW!!! WOW!!! WOW!!! Did you see the rains? The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS 31 TO 37. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. According to the Mt Roberts Weather Station we have received 70mm of precipitation in the last 12 hours... That is a TON of rain almost in the 3" range... Temperatures droped after 9pm last night and the snow depth sensor is showing 65cm of new snows(2'2"). The rain gauge and snow gauge amounts are closely related and show that a good majority of this new precip came in as snow at elevations above 1700'. To double check my rainfall and snow amounts I looked at the Eaglecrest gauges. They are showing 35cm of snow at the UAS site(1'2") The Mt Roberts Gauge could be showing some drifting or extra accumulations do to spatial variability or wind loading... To further clarify the readings The National Weather Service office in the Valley received 2.134" or rain in the last 12 hours while the airport showed 1.86" during that same time.. Bottom line... This is a lot of rain and snow in a very short period of time. This is a red flag indicator of direct action avalanches. AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. During this same 12 hour period we have seen SSE winds from 25-65 knots adding a great deal to the stress in the snowpack due to windloading. This too is a red flag indicator of building direct action avalanche conditions... Temperatures fell by 2 degrees during the but are expected to warm by 4 to 5 degrees today back up through the point of freezing at the 1800' level. This is also a red flag indicator of avalanche conditions. We have seen some natural avalanche activity overnight. White path slid 4/5 path. Chop Gulley slid. A tiny piece of Snowslide Creek slid and barely hit the berm on Thane Road. Cross Bay also had a substantial avalanche with crowns 300+ yards wide and 2-10 feet deep!!! It also went about 3/4 path. We may continue to see some natural avalanche activity throughout this mornings warming. Human Triggered avalanches are still quite probable in places. As conditions continue to dry out the temperatures will begin to rise. So we will be placing more stress on the snowpack in the form of warming... right as we reduce the stress to the snowpack with the precip slowing down. That is the reason I have reduced the probability and stated the trend to be slowly getting better...after the rains slow down... and as this afternoons temps fall into the evening. But dangers remain considerable during the rains and warming today. The lower layers in the snowpack have been pretty stable. If we see avalanche activity we assume most of it will be within the upper layers of the snowpack at the upper elevations and not super deep into the old snows. Yet as you get to lower elevations due to the rain saturated snows you could see quite a bit of entrainment. Yet with over 15" of new at Eaglecrest and 2' of new at the trams... along with windloading in places... these slides could still be of pretty good size...especially if they do entrain more snow at the lower elevations. Today is a great day... to relax... and decide what to do... all things in time... Be aware avalanche conditions are going to be a little touchy in places at upper elevations today. Today is a good day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trails.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-02

Fri, 02 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 300 FEET LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. According to the Mt Roberts Weather Station we have received 95mm of precipitation in the last 36 hours... That is a TON of rain almost in the 4" range... Temperatures droped after midnight last night and the snow depth sensor is showing 55cm of new snow(22")total for the 36 hour period. It started as much more snow yet we have seen rapid settlement at these near freezing temperatures with additional loading on top. Bottom line... This is a lot of rain and snow in a very short period of time. AVALANCHE DANGER IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME> Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. During this same 36 hour period we have seen SSE winds from 25-65 knots adding a great deal to the stress in the snowpack due to windloading. Temperatures fell by 2 degrees last night but are expected to warm by 4 to 5 degrees again today back up through the point of freezing at the 1800' level. We saw quite a bit natural avalanche activity in the region yesterday. White path slid 4/5 path. Chop Gulley slid. A tiny piece of Snowslide Creek slid and barely hit the berm on Thane Road. Cross Bay also had a substantial avalanche with crowns 300+ yards wide and 2-10 feet deep!!! It also went about 3/4 path. We may continue to see some natural avalanche activity throughout this mornings warming. Human Triggered avalanches are still possible in places. Time is our friend. There is a weak layer in the snowpack. But through rapid settlement and consolidation that weakness is going away over time. With all the natural avalanches you can see the presence of this layer and also the nature of the avalanches it is creating. Areas that have not yet slid may be holding the same weakness yet have simply not hit their threshold for being triggered. Be aware the mousetrap has been set and danger will remain for a while longer. As time progress' these trigger points will get smaller in size and harder to trip. But be aware in steep open areas, on convex faces, these dangers may still exist. The lower layers in the snowpack have been pretty stable. If we see avalanche activity we assume most of it will remain within the upper layers of the snowpack at the upper elevations and not super deep into the old snows. Yet yesterday showed us they can still be quite large just in this new snow with crown reaching over 8'. With continued precip and moderate loading winds in the forecast stress is continually being added to the snowpack. Be aware avalanche conditions could still be a little touchy in places at upper elevations today. Choose your routes carefully, avoid steep open convex faces, ride one at a time, avoid terrain traps, identify your islands of safety, place your partners in good spotting positions both at top and bottom. AND BE AWARE DANGER STILL EXISTS> Remember- TRANSCEIVER, PROBE, SHOVEL + a well trained partner. When in doubt, low angle out- and live to play another day!!! Today is a good day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trails.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-03

Sat, 03 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS 38 TO 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures remain above freezing on most of the mountains locally at this time. We continue to see moderate precipitation rates. With .48" of rain at the airport in the last 24 hours and .89" of rain in the valley in the last 24 hours you can see that spatial variability remains high. We are seeing rapid settlement and consolidation in the snowpack which over time will help to stabilize the pack. While temperatures are above freezing and we continue to see rains we are also eating away at the bonds in the snowpack. the rain is adding stress in the form of weight and eroding the bonds by rounding out the crystals and not allowing them to freeze together. During this warm weather danger levels are CONSIDERABLE. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. This applies more to steep open faces with fewer anchors. This will be especially true on convex slopes that tend to see glide activity. Today is the first day with rains to summit elevation on Douglas Island. Although the snowpack has been fairly strong over the last few days, once again... this rain is adding stress and eating at the bonds. Tonights cooler temperatures will start to bring stability into the snowpack yet tomorrow is to remain warm. By tomorrow night into Monday we expect large precip volumes once again and danger levels may rise. Remember to always carry your transceiver, probe, and shovel! Good partners, smart lines, riding from Islands of Safety to Islands of Safety, using anchors, placing spotters, riding one at a time, not highmarking above your partner, letting him dig himself out if stuck instead of placing the stress of 2 riders on the slope... thus doubling your active trigger and your risk... Good practices save lives! Lead by example and lets continue to enjoy the mountains in the winters!!! Have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-04

Sun, 04 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. The lower elevation snowpack now has drainage channels through the snowpack and is processing rains well. The snowpack at this elevation has become isothemral with temperatures slightly above freezing. It has settled and is mostly stable yet unfrozen thus removing the glue from the snowpack. Be aware in these areas the rain is now in places working its way along the ground surface and cutting the snow loose from its ground bonds. Steep pockets on rocks, grass, and with few or no anchors are cleaning themselves off with full depth releases. Through the last few days very warm weather and rains we have seen massive settlement and consolidation. Mid to upper mountain snowpacks have not yet reached full depth percolation of the rains. Most areas are settling in place. Some areas are continuing to see stress in the pack from the additional weight of rains that are being absorbed and not fully draining. We are seeing massive settlement. On low angle slopes this is happening in place. The steeper the slope angles become the more this snow is settling in the verticle plain. This becomes a problem on steep convex breakovers. The snow on the flatter surfaces wants to stay in place yet the snow on the downhill steeper side is pullling away from its flatland brother as it settles and continues to creep downhill. Most places at mid to upper elevations are fairly stable. Yet you can see massive glide cracks opening up in the snowpack in places. Remember these rains and warm temps often increase glide rates. Also now with glide cracks opening up quite a bit of rain goes straight to the bottom of the pack and starts running along the ground surface. Helping to lubricate the glide and also removing the bonds in the snow. There are still natural avalanches occuring in the mountain region. Yesterday releases were sighted in places some of them quite large. Many places in the backcountry and in the urban areas slid naturally at the beginning of this storm. Yet places that have not slid remain somewhat questionable. Most are stable. Yet once again, be aware of steep convex rollovers with little or no support on the downhill side of the slope in the form of anchors. These areas are still questionable. Also with these continued warm temps and rain we want to remain concerned with glide avalanches which are quite hard to predict with any accuracy. Bottom line. Most slopes are stable and settling in place... yet be aware danger remains CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches are possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable in isolated places. With not much moisture in the model today we may not see much in the way of direct action avalanches. Yet be aware as tonights precip rates increase into tomorrow we will once again raise avalanche danger. Once the snowpack acheives full depth drainage it will become less of a concern. But as long as we continue to add stress with additional load in the pack the dangers remain. We will look forward to cooler temperatures in the region to help stabilize the snowpack. But for now we are taking what mother nature has offered. Be careful in the mountains and backcountry especially on SUPER STEEP OPEN PLACES WITH FEW OR NO ANCHORS ESPECIALLY ON CONVEX SLOPE FACES>

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-05

Mon, 05 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS 24 TO 30. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. The current temperature at 5am is the warmest temperature we have seen in the region since November 1st. The temps are expected to rise by another few degrees this am. We are expecting to see at least 1" of rain throughout the day today. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable in places. We have seen 600mm (24") of precipitation in the last 35 days. 14" of that has been in the last 14 days. In high elevation places back in the icefield imagine they may have seen over 250" of snow... WOW... Big month in SE ALASKA! The snowpack has seen quite a bit of warming and rain in the last few days. At Eaglecrest summit elevations yesterday we observed that the rain has percolated to full depth in the snowpack. This is a good thing as it allows for drainage of todays rains through the snowpack with not too much additional stress. Most of the snowpack has settled a great deal in place. Densities are much higher than a week ago. Most of the snowpack is solid and in place. Todays rains will continue to add stress to the snowpack in steep open areas. Areas with few or no anchors will be more prone to avalanche activity. Convex breakovers will continue to add stress to the snowpack as we continue to see advanced settlement, creep, and glide rates. Many of the lower elevation spots hanging on steep rock have shed the snowpack in place as the rains have eaten at the ground bond. With todays warm temperatures this will be a concern at higher elevations. Yesterdays snowpit data showed 177cm in our data site. Upon conducting tests you could see the entire snowpack was isothemral. When we isolated a column for compression tests the columns continued to fail after isolation upon cutting the back. When we isolated a section for an extended column test and went to cut the back on one side a layer at 65cm down fractures in place but did not propagate. Upon cutting the other side of the back of the ECT the entire column failed at 21 cm above the ground as soon as our saw hit that spot. Tests score from 1-30 and these are both 0's for scores... they failed on isolation. Once the 21cm layer failed and we examined the sheer planes you could see the 21cm layer failed above the early season ice crust on a layer that had larger weaker crystals. It was a very uneven plane (Q3). When this column hit the ground the plane at 65cm down became even more obvious. It was a clean plane (Q1). Much of both of these failures is from the fact that the snowpack is now isothermal. The snow has lost its glue bonding it all together (COLD/ICE). Rain events are much harder to forecast for especially after the first few days. But with over 1" of rain today and the warmest temps we have seen in over 5 weeks dangers remain considerable. Tonight things will start to dry out and cool off. Once this happens the snowpack will become quite solid in place over time. The drainage channels in the snowpack will freeze solid and act like steel gurders that have been driven down into the snow holding it all together. This will not happen immediately but will continue to strengthen over time with below freezing temps.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-06

Tue, 06 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. EAST WIND TO 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 1.2" of rain yesterday morning in 5 hours and 2.4" of rain at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station between 5am on Sunday morning and Yesterday at noon. We received 8" of rain in the last 7 days. 10.4" in the last two weeks and 23" of rain since November 1st. That is a lot of precip folks. The first part of it came as snows. In the last week we have seen large volumes of rain to above summit elevations. This rain acheived full depth percolation in the snowpack. The snowpack became isothermal at 0 degrees. Drainage channels were established in the snowpack to help process the large volumes of rain. During that time our snowpack settled and consolidated from 223cm of snow into the 146cm of super dense snow we now have in place. During this same time the Eaglecrest Mid Mountain snow site showed a settlement from 220cm to about 163cm. In the last 20 hours temperatures have fallen by 6 degrees to below freezing once again. This large slurpee that we have had over the last few days is starting to turn back into a big block of ice. The drainage channels that were established in the snowpack act like steel gurders driven down in the snowpack connecting weak layers to strong layers and buiding strength in the snowpack. This takes a little time. It starts at the surface and works its way down through the snowpack. The longer we remain at solid below freezing temperatures the thicker our block of ice becomes. This block of ice with the gurders driven through it will build bridges over weak spots in the snowpack and add more strength over time. We often consider this to be a mid season reset on the snowpack. We have less concern on the deeper weak layers in the snowpack and are now mostly concerned with the new snow and weather affecting the surface layers in the pack. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-07

Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. EARLY LOWS AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We received 8" of rain in the last 7 days. 10.4" in the last two weeks and 23" of rain since November 1st. That is a lot of precip folks. The first part of it came as snows. In the last week we have seen large volumes of rain to above summit elevations. This rain acheived full depth percolation in the snowpack in the sites I examined. The snowpack became isothermal at 0 degrees in multiple survey locations. Drainage channels were established in the snowpack to help process the large volumes of rain. During that time our snowpack settled and consolidated from 223cm of snow into the 141cm of super dense snow we now have in place. During this same time the Eaglecrest Mid Mountain snow site showed a settlement from 220cm to about 164cm. In the last 44 hours temperatures have fallen by 8 degrees to below freezing once again. This large slurpee that we have had over the last few days is starting to turn back into a big block of ice. The drainage channels that were established in the snowpack act like steel gurders driven down in the snowpack connecting weak layers to strong layers and buiding strength in the snowpack. This takes a little time. It starts at the surface and works its way down through the snowpack. The longer we remain at solid below freezing temperatures the thicker our block of ice becomes. This block of ice with the gurders driven through it will build bridges over weak spots in the snowpack and add more strength over time. We often consider this to be a mid season reset on the snowpack. We have less concern on the deeper weak layers in the snowpack and are now mostly concerned with the new snow and weather affecting the surface layers in the pack. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. We have seen tremendous glide in the snowpack in the region. This may continue for some time as the ground remains unfrozen. Glide avalanches are still possible yet extremely hard to predict and not expected to be widespread. Watch as this new snow comes in over the next few days to see how it bonds to the ond snow surface. We now have an ice layer in the snowpack that may not be the best bed surface for the new snow to bond to. Looks like we will see some new snow for the weekend again! Hope to see you all out there!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-08

Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. BECOMING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Currently the snowpack is quite solid in place. The surface is quite icy. The precip models show as much as 1+" of rain in the next 24 hours. This could form as much as 10-12" of snow at higher elevations by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be rising during that time... First we will place some dust on this crust... then we will lay down the goo... without much glue... Be aware that this new cold snow may not bond well to the old snow surface. Then we will place wetter and heavier snow on top of the snow that starts the storm. We will see moderate windloading on NW facing slopes with todays forecasted 15-25 mph SE winds. Winds are already much higher at summit elevations with current winds from 20-40+mph on Mt Roberts and at Eaglecrest. Be aware although avalanche danger is currently LOW at this time danger levels will rise throughout the day to MODERATE and perhaps more into tomorrow as the snow starts to stack up at upper elevations, especially in windloaded pockets near ridgeline. Slides are not predicted to be large, yet if your playing in the backcountry be aware there is more of a concern as this new snow piles up. Already temperatures have warmed up by 2+ degrees during which time we have received about 13mm of precipitation and about 13cm (5+") of roughly 10% snow on the Mt Roberts Tram gauge. This could be quite a bit more in the windloaded pockets. The Eaglecrest and in town gauges are not showing nearly as much precip and snows this morning... This could be from spatial variability between the two sites... or it could be that one site is loading while the other is scouring due to winds. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches may be possible in areas especially as this storm continues. Enjoy a great day... Remember... with cold snows on an icy surface... time is your friend and the bonds will be quite weak at first and hopefully gain strength over time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-09

Fri, 09 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures have risen by 6C degrees over the last 24 hours while winds have remained in the 20-40mph range adding windload to pockets especially near ridgeline and summit. We saw roughly 15cm of new snows at the beginning of this storm at the Tram mid mountain weather station perhaps more at summit elevations do to cooler temperatures. The Tram Wx site has been over freezing since 5pm yesterday and we have received more than .5" of precip since that time while the Eaglcrest summit temperatures have remained just under freezing at -1C but in general the snowpack has wetted out and is bonding well to the old snow surface. We had a good ice buildup on the top of the snowpack in the last few days which should support this new snow at summit elevations. Yet be aware of windloaded pockets at that elevation. At lower elevations be aware that the ice layer that was in place is rapidly deteriorating. The ground remains above freezing throughout much of the region which has led to increased creep and glide rates. This new rain and warm temps in the last 24 hours will again place additional stress on the snowpack while the rains have the ability to lubricate the glide especially in areas that have open glide cracks allowing this rain to go straight to the earths surface. Although there is a very slight possibility of small slides at very low elevations as the snow cleans itself off of rocks and steep open sections... Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. At lower elevations we may see some additional glide avalanches which release at the earths surface. These glide avalanches are much harder to predict. Yet be aware that with the super warm temps and rain the slight danger remains. As we go into tonight and tomorrow temps should start to fall locking up the surface layers of the snowpack once again.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-10

Sat, 10 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 20 TO 28. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With the warm temps and rains above summit elevations for the last week, no new snow in the forecast for the day... and cooler temperatures in place. AVALANCHE DANGER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-11

Sun, 11 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. EARLY LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATE. MONDAY...WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. During the last 8 days we have seen quite warm temps and rains to summit elevations. In the last 36 hours temps have cooled off quite a bit and the wetted snowpack has frozen solid in place. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. With the clear cold night look at the snow surface today to see if we are developing a faceted surface. Be aware of this possibility as tonights snow comes in for tomorrow. Bonding may be poor due to this. As we go from tonight into tomorrow we will start to see new snow and it looks as though through the day tomorrow temperatures will be rising. Be aware danger level may rise at that time. Enjoy a great day! Be safe. Remember the basics. Always carry an avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel in the backcountry. Also remember to never ride without a partner. One on the slope at a time. Spot one another from safe locations... Then you only expose one at a time to possible danger!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-12

Mon, 12 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS 24 TO 30. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. We have received about 25mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours. Roughly 23mm of that came in the last 12 hours. This deposited roughly 10" of new snow in the mountains at mid mountain elevations. During this time we had winds ranging from 20-50 mph out of the SSE depositing additional windloaded snows on the NNW facing slopes. These are red flag indicators of building avalanche conditions. This tends to cross load our urban avalanche path gullies adding additional stress in these areas. Temperatures warmed only slightly during that time. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. The winds and precipitation rates are predicted to slow this morning,but if they continue much longer we may see them kick off a natural avalanche cycle today. We may have seen some avalanche activity in the mountains overnight already as well. As the loading rates slow our concern in the urban areas will decrease slightly. Be aware that in the backcountry with the addition of human triggers avalanche danger will remain for longer. Temperatures are also predicted to lower slightly into tonight and tomorrow. Remember time is your friend. As we give this new snow time to settle and bond it will start to increase stability in the snowpack, but for now it will be quite sensative. Patience is a virtue. Remember if you choose to play in the mountains today to pick safe locations with less exposure and more anchors. Always carry your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel. Always ride with a well trained partner. The more time you have spent in the mountains and practicing with your partner the safer you will both be. Ride one at a time only! Remember to place spotters in safe locations from both the top and bottom. Remember if you cannot see the entire path your safety is compromised further. When in doubt... low angle out...

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-13

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATION IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 28. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Last week we had above freezing temperatures and rain to above our local summit elevations. During that time the snowpack settled and bonded quite a bit. This lower snowpack is now frozen quite solid. Be aware there are also lots of areas that are showing glide. Remember areas of glide can avalanche to the ground and are quite hard to predict. Try to avoid areas that you see glide cracks showing up. Due to the the rain and warm temperature we had a somewhat icy snow surface in places. Over the weekend we had a few inches of lighter drier snow that did not tend to stick well to the old snow surface that was icy... From Sunday into Monday we received about 10" of new snow at upper elevations in about 12 hours both at Eaglecrest and on Mt Roberts during which time we had 20-50mph winds out of the SE. This tends to cross load our Urban Avalanche Zones along the channel. It scours the snows off of the high spots and deposits this snow in the depressions, draws and gullies. We saw quite a bit of windloading during this event on NW slopes in the backcountry, yet be aware in many areas the winds have a localized effect so drifting may vary. Temperatures have remained fairly constant over the last few days. Today is a good day to look to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface, see how the wind deposited the snow, and check closely for the individual stability rating where you are hoping to ride... Dig a pit in a safe location on something similar to what you are looking at riding... and do some individual tests. With the new snow in place, possibly poor surface bonds in areas and windloading, yet no serious moisture in the forecast and light winds, avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in isolated areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-14

Wed, 14 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have had several calm days in a row with below freezing temperatures. This has given the snowpack time to settle and bond to the old snow in place. With continued light winds and not much precipitation in the forecast. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Be aware wind loaded pockets may still exist in places but in general things are quite stable.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-15

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW BECOMING ALL RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 200 FEET. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. With not much precipitation in the last few days, and below freezing temps the snowpack is quite stable at this time. Continue to watch for windloading near summit and ridgeline as this new snow and winds develop. Windloaded pockets may be a little more sensative. Temperatures look to increase slightly tomorrow with some additional snow and winds. Danger levels may rise during that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-16

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW DIMINISHING LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. SATURDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A week ago we had above freezing temperatures to summit elevations and rain. This restabilized the lower snowpack. Early in the week we had about 10" of new snow with some fair SSE winds. Since that time the new snow has settled and bonded quite a bit. It appears to be a strong bond to the old snow surface in most places. Yesterday at the Mt Roberts Tram we received 12mm of precipitation which came in the form of 7cm of new snow including the settlement. Winds were ranging from 15-45 knots during that time. Temperatures were also rising slightly. The UAS plot at Eaglecrest showed much the same. Look to see tender pockets near summit and ridgeline in windloaded places. Be aware there is always a possibility of activity in isolated places. Overall with not much new snow, not much precipitation in the forecast and only slightly rising temps and light to moderate winds, Avalanche Danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-18

Sun, 18 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW DIMINISHING LATE. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 300 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. A week ago we had above freezing temperatures to summit elevations and rain. This restabilized the lower snowpack. Early in the week we had about 10" of new snow with some fair SSE winds. Since that time the new snow has settled and bonded quite a bit. It appears to be a strong bond to the old snow surface in most places. Look to see tender pockets near summit and ridgeline in windloaded places. Be aware there is always a possibility of activity in isolated places. Overall with not much new snow, not much precipitation in the forecast and only slightly rising temps and light to moderate winds, Avalanche Danger is LOW at this time. Watch to see how this new snow lays in overnight tonight... With high winds we may see some additional windloading near summit but not much snow is expected.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-19

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MIXED WITH AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. We have received about 23mm or precipitation in the last 24 hours which left about 18cm of new snow at tram summit elevation. During this precipitation event we had winds ranging from 20-50mph. Temperatures have increased by 3 degrees over the last 12 hours and will remain near freezing today. Most of this new snow bonded fairly well with the old snow surface, yet look for wind loaded pockets near summit and ridgeline that may be triggerable.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-20

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING... THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 30 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY BECOMING STEADY RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS. We received roughly 9" of snow in the last 2 days. This is resting on about a foot of snow from the previous week. All on top of the early season rain crust. From the rain crust down the snowpack is quite stable. The First foot of snow is bonded well to the old snow surface. I was seeing some weakness at that layering yet tests scores are strong and this layer does not look to have any energy. The last 48 hours snows came in with high winds and appears to also be holding well with little to no energy. Be aware that with spatial variability there is still a possibility of weakness near ridgeline and summit in windloaded places, yet most of the snowpack is solid in place at this time. With slightly cooler temperatures today than yesterday, very little wind, and little to no new snow in the forecast, avalanche danger is LOW at this time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-21

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE STEADY AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. PRECIPITATION HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT 6 TO 7 INCHES ON DOUGLAS ISLAND ABOVE 1200 FEET. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW AND RAIN BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have remained near freezing at tram summit elevations. Winds were calm the last 2 days with moderate breezes from 10-20 mph. Winds this AM are picking up and are gusting from 20-40mph. We have received about 2" of new snow in the last 48 hours. You may see a small pocket or two with additional accumulations near summit and ridgeline. With not much additional precip in the forecast for early today, moderate winds and cool temperatures, avalanche danger is LOW at this time. As the moisture model increases later today and the temps rise slightly into tomorrow look to see danger levels going up. We could see well over a foot at summit elevations in the next 24 hours and maybe as much as 18" in the next 48 hours. Lets hope the temperatures stay cold during this event!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-22

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...BECOMING WINDY AGAIN. RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING. FRIDAY...WINDY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Although the forecasted freezing level states 1400 for this am it appears to be over 1800 already. The Mt Roberts Tram Wx Station shows +2C temps while the Eaglecrest summit gauge is showing about -1/2c. Eaglecrest UAS weather station shows having received 11" of new snow in the last 24 hours. Temperatures came up by 4 degrees during that time and are now hovering at 0. The Mt Roberts Wx station is showing 40mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours and the gauge quit working at 2am so it is probably much more... This gave us 28cm of snow by 2am. But then my gauge quit working... Most of the precip after this time came down as rain at this elevation. Which is rapidly destabilizing the snowpack. Winds ranged from 20 to 60 knots out of the SSE during this event. Highest winds were on Douglas Island. With another 1" of precip possible in the forecast, winds from 20-30 knots and gusting to 45, Over a foot of new snow on the ground at upper elevations with lots of windloading... AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. I would hope the lower deep layers will continue to hold strong bonds. Yesterday showed some weakness at the old snow surface from the rains a few weeks back on the Mt Roberts faces. These are the warmest temps we have seen since this rain event two weeks ago. This new load will continue to test the snowpack down to this old rain crust interface. We are dealing with an upside down snowfall event that had rapid snowloading, windloading, and has now warmed through freezing at lower elevations. Many red flags are present. As temps start to cool off late tonight and into tomorrow the snowpack should start to stabilize again. Today is a great day to use extra caution.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-23

Fri, 23 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...BECOMING WINDY. SNOW AND RAIN BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE EVENING...GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. In the last 48 hours we have received 62mm of precipitation (2 2/5"). In the first 24 hours that translated into 28cm of snow at Tram Summit elevation. Since that time temps have been above freezing and we lost 10cm of that volume. The lower elevation snowpack is quite dense and moist. The summit elevation snowpack is a little different. There has been a little more snow and less rain. Yesterday upon doing field work you could see the snowpack had not wetted through down to the old rain crust. There was a slight weak layer about 10cm above the old melt freeze crust. The surface layers have stiffened up quite a bit since then, but this weak layer still exists in places. Yesterday AM's rain brought natural avalanches to the Urban areas. The lower portions of Snowslide Creek on Thane Road slid and filled in behind the berm. The Berhands path slid from off of the lower cliff/snow ledges. White Path slid down into the gulley below the cliffs. Crop Gulley above the Flume Trail slid. This reduces stress and some hazard in these areas. But it is important to recognize that there are still avalanche paths above the start zones from yesterday that are still hanging and have even greater potential. Temperatures have dropped by over 4C degrees in the last 24 hours. Winds have died down for now but are forecast to increase. The precip rates has slowed but we still expect as much as another 1" of precip by Christmas Morning. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. It will have to do with elevation and aspect... Much of the snowpack has restabilized already. But in some areas it may take longer. Be aware and choose safe routes. Utilize good practices. Skiing from safe spot to safe spot watching your partners ride one at a time. Remember, Transceiver, probe, shovel and a well trained partner... Dont leave home without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-24

Sat, 24 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 900 FEET IN THE MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHRISTMAS DAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. In the last 24 hours we received 12mm of precipitation and roughly 12cm of new snow at tram summit elevations and above. Temperatures have come up by 2C degrees in the last 24 hours. Winds have been from 15 to 35 knots out of the SSE. The surface layers have been bonding and settling pretty fast at these near freezing temperatures. There is a fair amount of spatial variability in the snowpack at this time on different aspects and elevations. Be aware that pockets of isolated danger may still exist. In general with not much precip in the forecast. Steady, near freezing temperatures, and light to moderate winds avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet be aware you may still be able to trigger slabs in isolated windloaded pockets.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-25

Sun, 25 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...WINDY...SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. With cooling temperatures throughout the day, not much precipitation in the forecast, and winds from 10-20knots, avalanche danger is LOW at this time. We have seen quite a bit of new snow and windloading at summit elevations in the last few days. Things appear to be bonding fairly well, but we are consistantly adding to this new load and stress with our new snows and high winds. For the most part stability is good. Be aware near summit and ridgelines, in windloaded pockets, avalanche danger may be greater. Remember this forecast if for the urban enviroment where we have no active triggers. With the addition of (YOU) the trigger avalanche danger may be more on the moderate scale in isolated windloaded pockets.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-26

Mon, 26 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have fallen by 4C degrees in the last 24 houts. Winds were light from 10-20mph but have increased to 30+ knots in the last hour. We received essentially no new snow or precip in the last 24 hours. This has given the snowpack time to settle and bond. Yet since this morning we have received several inches of new snow and winds. Loading avalanche paths and buiding the danger level. Avalanche Danger is Moderate at this time. We have seen roughly 17" of overall snow accumulation during the last 7 days from mid mountain to summit elevations. Winds have been high and temperatures were near freezing. We did see some drifting yet most of the snowpack remained solid during the event. Not much avalanche activity has been sighted in the area even though there are still weak layers in the snowpack near surface. Be aware in areas of the backcountry as this new snow comes in it will continue to be wind driven and sensative over the next 24-48 hours. Overall moisture models remain moderate. Things are fairly stable overall. Simply be aware on steep open faces near summit and ridgeline there may be areas of weakness in the pack. Be sure to perform individual stability assessments in the area you choose to play. Things are changing rapidly. Merry Christmas and hope your looking forward to a bright new year....

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-27

Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. EAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. In the last 24 hours we received a moderate amount of new snow. At the Mt Roberts Tram wx station we recorded 23mm of precipitation (almost an inch) and 18cm of new snow. During this snow event the temperatures rose by 4+ degrees but has now fallen by 2 of those same degrees. Winds were averaging 10-25knots during that time and gusting to 45... Todays forecast calls for not much additional precipitation, a little cooling through the day and more into tonight, and light to moderate winds. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Be aware we now have over 2+ feet of new snow in the last 7 days. With high winds during much of the event the windslabs near summit and ridgeline could be potentially much thicker. These deeper layers appear to be holding strength at this time,yet as we continue to place additional load on the pack it brings their stability into question. Be aware we are getting to the point where any avalanche that should start has fair potential for size now that we have all this new snow in the starting zones. Most of the deep weak layers are fairly strong. One of the primary concerns would be to have an avalanche in the new surface layers of the slope that then tears down to a deeper layer of instability creating a much larger avalanche. If any surface slides should occur they add tremendous stress to the snowpack under them. Today is a good day to pick safe routes, keep your partners in sight, dont forget your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel! Ski from safe point to safe point utilizing spotters through any compromised areas. Be safe and have a blast! Remember when in doubt to low angle out... and live to play another day....

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-28

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING...MIXING WITH RAIN SOUTH OF TAKU INLET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...EXCEPT RAIN SOUTH OF TAKU INLET IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. In the last 2 weeks we have received about 2' of new snow. Before that time we had rains to summit elevations and very warm temperatures. This rain event stabilized the lower snowpack quite a bit. The primary concern today lies in the upper layers in the snowpack and the new load that is coming in today into tomorrow. Yesterday I dug quite a few snowpits in different areas to better understand the nature of the snowpack that is lying on the stable snow beneath it. The new snow ranged from 25-110cm in different locations. There has been a great deal of wind effect during the last 2 weeks which has added greatly to spatial variability. The average depth of the old/new snow interface was at about the 60cm mark(2'). Above this interface we have multiple density changes and weak layers. Where two days ago the powder was cold and fluffy, yesterday it had more density and was more wind affected. I found everything from perfect fluffy powder to moderate density wind slabs. Yet most of the snow was fairly stable. To beter understand the nature of this stability I did several snowpit tests in each of my pit locations. I concentrated on shovel shears, compression tests, and extended column tests. Most locations had fairly similar results. My shovel shears were breaking through multiple layers from 20-35cm on an uneven plane. My compression tests were failing fairly consistantly at about the 41cm mark with quality 1 shears(Q1= flat clean shears)with a score of 12-13. Upon continuing the tests I got a secondary release at 62cm under the degrading old melt freeze crust with a Q1 shear and a score of 20. (tests score from 1-30 w/1=very weak and 30=very strong) These tests showed us the presence of weak layers in the snowpack at multiple elevations with the ability to tear down into deeper weak layers with additional stress on the snowpack. Upon performing Extended Column tests in the same locations I found it interesting that I could not get clean ECT failures. Most of the test sites simply collapsed and settled in place and did not fail in fracture or propagation. This shows us that although there is a weakness in the snowpack layering it is hard to define the nature of its ability to create avalanches. Spatial variability is quite high. This adds to the multiple variables in the snowpack stability equasion making it harder to say conditions are safe. Be sure to make individual assesments for the areas you choose to ride in. Do not take anything for granted or assume that becuase one slope is stable the others will be also. As this new snow comes in over the next 24-48 hours temperatures should remain cool. Winds are forecasted at moderate and are currently in the 10-20 knot range. The precip volumes are also moderate. As this storm comes in avalanche danger will rise slowly. Be aware that avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Human triggered avalanches are possible in areas. Have a great day and remember the basics. Transceiver, probe, shovel, and partner... dont leave home without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-29

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY NEAR 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 27. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING...MIXING WITH RAIN SOUTH OF TAKU INLET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...EXCEPT RAIN SOUTH OF TAKU INLET IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. In the last 2 weeks we have received over 2' of new snow. Before that time we had rains to summit elevations and very warm temperatures. This rain event stabilized the lower snowpack quite a bit. The primary concern today lies in the upper layers in the snowpack and the new load that came in yesterday into today. The overnight winds created sensative wind slabs in most starting zone locations. Two days ago I dug quite a few snowpits in different areas to better understand the nature of the snowpack that is lying on the stable snow beneath it. The new snow ranged from 25-110cm in different locations. There has been a great deal of wind effect during the last 2 weeks which has added greatly to spatial variability. The average depth of the old/new snow interface was at about the 60cm mark(2'). Above this interface we have multiple density changes and weak layers. Where three days ago the powder was cold and fluffy, two days ago it had more density and was more wind affected. I found everything from perfect fluffy powder to moderate density wind slabs. Yet most of the snow was fairly stable. To better understand the nature of this stability I did several snowpit tests in each of my pit locations. I concentrated on shovel shears, compression tests, and extended column tests. Most locations had fairly similar results. My shovel shears were breaking through multiple layers from 20-35cm on an uneven plane. My compression tests were failing fairly consistantly at about the 41cm mark with quality 1 shears(Q1= flat clean shears)with a score of 12-13. Upon continuing the tests I got a secondary release at 62cm under the degrading old melt freeze crust with a Q1 shear and a score of 20. (tests score from 1-30 w/1=very weak and 30=very strong) These tests showed us the presence of weak layers in the snowpack at multiple elevations with the ability to tear down into deeper weak layers with additional stress on the snowpack. Upon performing Extended Column tests in the same locations I found it interesting that I could not get clean ECT failures. Most of the test sites simply collapsed and settled in place and did not fail in fracture or propagation. This shows us that although there is a weakness in the snowpack layering it is hard to define the nature of its ability to create avalanches. Spatial variability is quite high. This adds to the variables in the snowpack stability equasion making it harder to say conditions are safe. Be sure to make individual assesments for the areas you choose to ride in. Do not take anything for granted or assume that becuase one slope is stable the others will be also. Yesterday into today we received about 3-4" of new snow. Winds were quite low during the snowfall event but picked up into the mid 30's shortly after the event. Temperatures remained cool and will continue to cool slightly over the next 24 hours. Look for drifting snow on slopes. We may not see too much loading but these are the areas to be most concerned with and are quite sensative and are being easily skier triggered this morning. Although the lower weak layers will continue to stabilize over time, this additional load may bring those weak layers closer to failure especially in those near summit and ridgeline windloaded pockets especially after last night snow starts small slides on this weak layer underneath it. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE at this time. Human triggered avalanches are possible while natural releases are unlikely. Remember to pick safe routes that limit exposure to terrain traps, cliffs, and dangerous areas, but have a great time doing it. Its going to be a great day! Have a great day! What did you get for Christmas... Have you practiced with your new avalanche transceiver yet? The new ones get you in super close in very little time... the trick to using these great new tools to save lives is to concentrate on the fine search and deep burials. Also remember if you use good riding practices you should never have an avalanche with multiple burrials do to the fact you ride from area of safety to area of safety one at a time using spotters. Thus only compromising one person at a time. But remember these multiple burrials are much more difficult to locate as well. Stop by the Eaglecrest Avalanche Transceiver Training Park to practice with your new tools!

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-30

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 27. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 25. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Over the last 3 weeks weeks we have received 1.4 meters of new snow on the Eaglecrest Mid Mountain UAS Site. During that same time we received about .8 meters on the Mt Roberts Tram Site. The difference is primarily do to elevations and temps. Mt Roberst saw part of this event at above freezing temperatures. The Mount Roberts site measured 210mm of precipitation during this time. So you can see the densities are quite high now. During this 3 week event temperatures remained near freezing adding to the rapid settlement and good bonding in most of the snowpack. We had 5 notable wind events during this time with winds over 40knots and gusting over 70...Most every notable event pushed winds out of the SSE. Spatial Variability is quite high at this time. The depth and layering of the snowpack is quite different from location to location ranging from almost no new snow in places to well over 5' of new snow in others. Most of this new snow is stable in place. Although there are weak layers in the pack, they do not appear to be avalanching with the presence of humam triggers in most places. Two days ago into yesterday we received about 3-4" of new snow that was finished off with winds up to 40knots. This placed tender soft slabs in places that were easily being skier triggered yesterday. This is our primary concern for today. These slides were mostly small and located in isolated pockets. Summit and ridgeline typically has more wind affect so these are prime areas of concern. Lower in the treeline the dangers are much less. Recognize that in the backcountry there are still weak layers beneath the one that is being triggered. If a small slide were to release in places there is the possibility for this small slide to tear down deeper into the snowpack then perhaps propagating into a larger avalanche. We have identified weak layers down over 50-65cm so this newly propagated avalanche could be quite large should it occur. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Most of the slopes appear to be safe or showing only small pockets releasing yet be aware that do to spatial variability this will change from location to location. I would feel good about skiing most of my moderate difficulty lines in the backcountry at this time. If I was thinking about skiing a big mountain open fall line on a unanchored convex slope... I think I would reconsider and stick to safer lines with anchors, safe spots, and escape routes. This snowpack will continue to stabilize over time and by tomorrow I expect danger levels may drop back down to LOW. Winds are light over the next few days and precipitation rates are also quite low. Temperatures are to remain cool. This should give the snowpack the time it needs to settle and bond, thus building strength in the snowpack. Remember- TRANCEIVER< PROBE> SHOVEL> AND A WELL TRAINED PARTNER are the essential tools to safely enjoy the backcountry... Dont leave home without them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2011-12-31

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. NEW YEARS DAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have seen quite a bit of new snow over the last few weeks yet the layers appear to be settling, bonding, and gaining strength. There are weak layers present lower in the snowpack yet they appear to be unresponsive to tests and to have little or no energy. In the last 2 days we have received about 8mm of precip and almost no new snow after you take into consideration the consolidation and settlement. This snowpack is settling fast and stabilizing quickly. This low accumulation rate has allowed the snow pack the time it needs to become stronger. Temperatures remain below freezing. They started at near freezing temps at the beginning of this snow cycle and have been gradually cooling which is a good thing, continuing to place low volumes of light dry snow on top of the more consolidated snow in place. We have seen quite a bit of 15-35mph winds over the last 4 days. This has placed tender soft slabs in spots. These isolated slabs have been responsive to ski cuts. We are seeing some propagation in the releases yet not widely. Recognize that although danger is at LOW today there is still the ability to create small avalanches in places. With spatial variability being high, a mostly stable snowpack especially in the lower layers, light winds in the forecast, continued cold temps, and low precip rates danger will remain LOW today. Natural avalanches are unlikely, Human triggered avalanches are unlikely yet smaller slides are still possible in places. These small slides are mostly soft slabs that break and turn into low volume sluffs. Yet be aware on big open slopes with more exposure they could entrain quite a bit of snow. Continue to keep moving snow in mind as you pick your lines and decide upon the exposures you are comfortable with. Keep an eye on the snowpack over the next few days it appears that we will see increased precip volumes during a warming trend from mid day tomorrow into Monday. I expect danger levels to rise at that time yet should remain low from today into tomorrow. Happy New Year Everyone! I must say I do so appreciate the feedback I get from everyone. Please let me know how I can better serve you. Please feel free to share your field observations with me as well. Have an amazing day, be safe, and HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-01

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

HAPPY NEW YEAR> MAY YOU ALL HAVE AN INCREDIBLE 2012! The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...LOCALLY WINDY. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW...MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 9 TO 13 INCHES. TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Pay attention folks becuase here it comes! About 3 weeks ago we had warm weather and summit rains. This stabilized the lower snowpack. Since that time we have received about 3' of new snow at Mid to upper mountain elevations. Most of this 3 feet has been stable in place. Although weak layers have been present in the snowpack they have been non-reactive to most tests. In the last week we had several small storms. From Monday into Tuesday last week we received a few inches of snow with winds. Tuesday's conditions were touchy. Surface wind slab avalanches were occuring in windloaded pockets. These appeared to remain isolated. Propagation was not widespread at that time. But this weak layer remains in places where it has not yet been triggered. Wednesday into Thursday we again say a small dump of low density snows. This too was easily skier triggerable in places. From Friday night into Saturday we got another few inches of very low density snow along with winds. This layer is also quite sensative in steeper open areas and developed weak layers in places that still exist. Over this last week of snow the winds have loaded the slopes in several different directions. Often our wind is out of the SE loading NW slopes. This week we have seen pretty much everything but North winds. At this time we have multiple small weak layers with windloading in pockets. These layers have proven to be sensative. The spatial variability is quite high as winds and loading have switched direction quite often. In the last 8 hours the tram received about 2" of new snow. Nearly the same fell at the Eaglecrest UAS Site. During that time temps remained cool along the channel, yet Eaglecrest has already shown +2C degrees of warming starting to build this new snowpack today in an upside down layered fashion over the multiple weak, easily triggerable, layers in place. Over the next 30 hours the forecast calls for 1.5" of water eq. in the precip as well as over 15" of new snow. This is a red flag indicator of building avalanche danger all on its own. The temperatures are supposed to rise by another 5 degrees over the next 24 hours up through the point of freezing at lower mountain elevations tomorrow morning. This is also a red flag indicator of avalanche conditions. The precip models show 6.3" of snow for .42 inches of water eq this morning which is well under 10% density. Then they show 1.7" of snow with .24" of water eq by tomorrow morning. This is well over 10% densities. As you can see we will be placing a brick on top of the pop cans that are currently in place building an upside down snowpack with the strong heavy snows on top and the weak snows on the bottom. This is a red flag indicator of building avalanche conditions. Winds are low at this time yet are going to pick up this afternoon into tomorrow. These winds are also red flag indicators of building avalanche conditions. Today the winds are out of the East, tonight they will switch to the SE then tomorrow am to due South. This will load multiple aspects and make it even more difficult to find safe areas that are less wind affected. This morning avalanche danger is Moderate... yet with rapid snowfall accumulations over the weak layers in place it will transition to Considerable quite rapidly. Todays avalanche forecast calls for CONSIDERABLE DANGER! Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. By later today into tonight and especially by tomorrow morning we expect to see avalanche danger continue to rise to HIGH DANGER. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. If loading rates were higher the danger would already be high. If it warmed slightly more than forecast then danger would rapidly transition to high... Our urban avalanche zones are becoming quite loaded with snow this season and are starting to become a concern from time to time. First area of concern for today, but even a greater concern for tonight into tomorrow will be THANE ROAD. I am certain the DOT is watching conditions. We are communicating about danger levels. They will be overwhelmed with snow plowing during this event yet recognize the danger levels are rising. This morning is too early for an avalanche control shoot on Thane Road. This upside down snowfall has had very little accumulation thus far and temperatures remain cool. As we go through tonight into tomorrow danger will climb rapidly. I would not be suprised to see natural avalanche activity before daylight tomorrow morning. Today, especially tonight into tomorrow is a good time to avoid avalanche zones. Limit your exposure to avalanche terrain by first recognizing where it is, then by not being there during these times of danger. Avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Avoid travel on Thane road later today into tomorrow as much as possible. Limit your time in the Urban avalanche zones. Go to a friends house, see a movie, but tonight into tomorrow it is important to recognize danger levels will be HIGH! Volumes are not forecast to reach the structures in the urban zones, yet with multiple weak layers in place it will be very difficult to say that with any certainty. Areas that are not typically a concern are also building quite a bit of snow. The ubran paths that lay at lower elevations and dont typically see avalanche activity are quite loaded at this time. With temps going over freezing tomorrow morning to over 800' some of these areas will become the first areas of concern. Today is a great day to enjoy the quality skiing at Eaglecrest where they do great avalanche control work. Please recognize in the backcountry all the signs are present for buiding avalanche danger over the next 30 hours.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-02

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38 IN THE MORNING...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25 TO 31. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. With large volumes of snow in the starting zones and a upside down snowpack from the last 2 days of warming and heavy snows... The DOT will be doing avalanche control work this morning on Thane Road at 10:30 in an effort to create avalanches to remove the weak layers in the snowpack and reduce the volumes of snow in the starting zones. Thane road will be closed from about 10-1 for avalanche control today. If much snow reaches the road it may take longer to do clean-up but this mitigation effort hopefully will bring down small slides and they will have the road open shortly after the firing. Since the beginning of the new year temperatures have warmed by 11F degrees at Eaglecrest's summit and 7F degrees on the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station. During this time we received about 25mm of precip on the Tram gauge and about 20cm of new snow. The last portion of the precip came in the form of rain after temperatures rose up through the point of freezing at 1800' last night. The first part of the storm was quite light with snow far under 10% densities... On the Eaglecrest mid mountain guage they received about 25cm of new snow during this same time showing that there are additional snow volumes at upper elevations. Winds ranged from 15-25 knots during the first part of the storm out of the E. Then last night switched to the SE and picked up to 30-40 knots for a period of time. The forecast for today calls for falling winds, cooling temperatures, and drying conditions. This is activly removing the natural triggers from our avalanche paths, yet recognize that human triggered avalanches are quite likely. AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE at this time and falling over the next 24 hours. Natural avalanches possible yet are a little unlikely as the cooling and drying start, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches PROBABLE. This snowpack has recently placed tremendous stress on several weak layers that were already in place. Today is a great day to give the snowpack time to settle, bond, and adjust. By tomorrow things will be much different. Remember there are 5 red flag indicators of avalanche danger. 1- heavy snowfall 2- high winds 3- warming temperatures 4- woomphing, shooting cracks in the snowpack, colapsing. 5- sighting natural avalanches. My guess is you will see all 5 indicators today~ Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-03

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 29...RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 800 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. Last week and over the New Years weekend we received several small storms that finished in one fair sized storm. This storm brought over a foot of new snows during a time the temperatures climbed by 11f degrees. This warming trend during a storm places heavy wet snows on top of the looser lighter snows that were in place, creating a weakness in the snowpack. I can place a brick on top of a pop can... but when I put too many bricks on the can crushes... or if you step on it... it crushes... these are two examples of what can be the start of an avalanche. We have heavy snow on light snow... then we add more snow via new snow fall... wind... or by human triggers... when the stress exceeds the strength the snowpack fails. Over time these lower weak layers will stabilize, yet it can take a little time. Winds during the last week also add to the equasion. We built windslabs in isolated places that also add stress to the snowpack. With not much new snow over the last 2 days, cool temperatures, and low to moderate winds the avalanche danger is Moderate. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches are still possible. Later today into tomorrow we will start to see some new snow but the volumes remain low. Mid day tomorrow we will start to see some gentle warming and heavy precip. Avalanche danger will increase at that time. Please be careful in the backcountry today and recognize there are still weak layers in place. Avoid exposure to steep wide open terrain, especially convex slopes where the stress is greater. Choose safe lines with limited exposure. Ride from island of safety to island of safety one at a time with a spotter watching his partner. More trees and more anchors and less slope angle create somewhat safer slopes. Remember, Transceiver, Probe, and Shovel.. Dont leave home without them! Always ride with a well trained properly equiped partner as well. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-04

Wed, 04 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. This mornings temperatures are the warmest they have been since December 22nd. The forecast calls for 35degree high temps in town today and yet at this time the temps are 35 at the UAS Mid Mountain Snow Site at Eaglecrest and about the same above the tram. Since the DEC 22 event we have received 135mm of precip and 40cm of new snow. This shows fair densities in the snowpack. There is as much as 1" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hour period. Most of which is forecast to be snow in the mountainous areas. Yet once again temps at Eaglecrest summits are currently 32 so it is currently mostly rain. This adds tremendous stress to the snowpack. Winds have been high for the last 24 hours with fairly constant winds from 15-40 knots at ridgeline and fairly strong below as well. The forecast calls for those winds to remain considerable which will add to windloading rapidly if we cool off back to more snow. The new surface snows may be a little tender today but remember, we had about that 16" of new snow since our last warming event. This could be the layer to watch for today as we add additional stress to the upper layers of the snowpack. Thane Road is nice and cleaned out. Yet showed us this lower weak layer would avalanche with enough stress. Today as we add additional stress to that same weak layer in other areas danger is Moderate over this next 24 hours precip event.. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. This warm front appears to be moving away will and temps are cooling. Have a great day and be conservative if you choose to venture out into the backcountry. Today is a great day to avoid places like The Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-05

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. Temperatures stayed very near to freezing the last 48 hours. Even dipping above freezing for several hours both at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and the Eaglecrest Summits. This near freezing temperature makes for rapid settlement and consolidation in the snowpack. We have received about 25m of precipitation in the last 48 hours. 20mm of which came in the last 24. This delivered some 12cm of new snows at the Mt Roberts Tram Wx Station. But overall from start to finish after settlement and consolidation we only received a net increase of about 3cm. This rapid settlement and consolidation should help to increase the stability in the snowpack. During this same time the UAS site at Eaglecrest had a net increase of 10cm. We expect there to be additional snow at summit elevations. Winds averaged 15-30+ MPH during the event with gusts in to the mid 40's. Adding Considerable windloading to the starting zones. Considering moderate new snow loading and considerable windloading, the avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely yet human triggered avalanches remain possible. Be cautious in areas near summit and ridgeline and in typical windloaded areas. With not much precip in the forecast for today, cooling temperatures, and moderate winds, avalanche danger will continue to fall for the next 24-48 hours. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-06

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Yesterday was fairly calm and dry... Temperatures have cooled by about 4C degrees over the last 36 hours. Winds hovered between 15-30 knots out of the SSE. We received almost no precipitation yesterday while the snowpack continued to settle considerably. This settlement and consolidation helps to add stability to the snowpack. With the low volumes of precipitation in the forecast and the cool temperatures in place avalanche danger is LOW at this time. As we start to see additional precipitation tomorrow into Sunday during a warming trend danger levels will increase.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-07

Sat, 07 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET INCREASING TO 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received about 12mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours. over half of which came in the last 6 hours. Temperatures have been near freezing. This delivered only about 5cm of new snows at tram summit elevations and almost no new snow at the Mid Mountain UAS side on Eaglecrest. We probably have a bit more new snow than that at summit elevations, but no more than about 4" anywhere in in our local mountains. Winds yesterday ranged from 10-30 knots during the first half of the day, last night they picked up to 20-45 knots during the major portion of the precipitation. This created windloading in places on NNW slopes. Most of the time with these near freezing temps and high winds the snows tend to paste into our mountain starting zones and is often not very reactive. Yet be aware that windloading exists in upper mountain regions near summit and ridgeline in exposed places. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. Today temperatures are going to remain relatively warm and near freezing. The forecast calls for an additional 1.25" of precipitation in the next 24 hours. Freezing levels will rise a little this morning. Upper mountain regions will see snow accumulations while lower mountain areas will see mostly rains. Winds are forecast to remain quite strong during this event. Danger levels will continue to rise over the next 24 hours as we feel the weight of this 1.25" of precip in the starting zones.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-08

Sun, 08 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES AROUND 41 IN THE MORNING...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. MONDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 32 EARLY. TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. We received just over an inch of rain in the last 24 hours at the Juneau Airport. Mountain totals are assumed to be higher. Driving winds out of the SSE have been blowing for the last 36 hours ranging from 25-65 knots. Currently averages are still from 25-35 knots. Temperatures rose over the last 48 hours by 5-6C degrees to +3C at the Mt Roberts Tram and 0c at the Eaglecrest Summit. The temperatures started to fall again around midnight last night and are currently just below freezing on our local mountain gauges at this time. We received around 37cm of new snow early in the storm. Some perhaps do to wind loading. Later in the storm after temps rose we saw quite a bit of settlement and consolidation to where the overall gain at the UAS mid mountain gauge at Eaglecrest is only showing about 20cm of new snow. Still perhaps showing some windloading but overall not a lot of new snow at mid mountain elevations due to the warm temperatures. We would expect to see additional new snow load above these 1700' weather sites but overall not a lot as temperatures did hover at 0 all the way to the Eaglecrest Summit for over 10 hours yesterday afternoon into evening. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. With falling temperatures over the next 24-48 hours, winds slightly lowering and then shifting direction later tonight, and moderate precip totals that continue falling in the next 24 hours, avalanche danger will decrease over the next 24-48 hours. Be aware in our upper mountain starting zones with the high winds from yesterday and precip totals over 1" with some new snow as well, we may see some windloading and sensatavity in our windloaded mountain starting zones today. The longer you give these areas with the falling temperatures the more stable they will become. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-09

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 IN MORNING REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 22. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have fallen to by 5C degrees to well below freezing once again in the last 6 hours. We received 40mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours. 30 of which came in the first 24 hours. Overall during that time we lost about 12cm of snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. The UAS gauge at Eaglecrest showed 35cm of new snow at the beginning of the cycle but is now only showing a net gain of 15cm. Summit totals may be a bit higher but due to heavy winds and scouring not much accumulation overall in our upper mountain areas. In general during this time of considerable precipitation we had quite a bit of settlement and consolidation adding strength to the snowpack. The snowpack was quite moist due to the precip and warm temps now as temperatures continue to fall the snowpack is freezing solid in place. With almost no new snow in the forecast, continually falling temperatures and light to moderate winds with not much snow available for transport, avalanche danger is LOW at this time and should remain low for the next 24-48 hours. Be aware at lower mountain elevations the surface of the snowpack is frozen but the lower snowpack is still quite moist and will take a little additional time to freeze completely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-10

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We had a few days of warmer weather over the weekend with rain and snow mixed in our mountain starting zones. We saw quite a bit of settlement and consolidation in the snowpack during this warmer weather even though it did deliver a little new snow in our upper mountain regions. Temperatures dropped by about 7C degrees after this event to well below freezing once again. The snowpack was quite moist after the weekends warm temps but has now had 24 hours to freeze back up creating additional strength in the snowpack. We did get a little new snow on Sunday in the upper mountain regions, but due to the high winds some of those pockets of new snow may be a little below summit and ridgeline. Yesterday we saw a shift in the winds to out of the WSW for several hours of 15-30 mph winds creating interesting small pockets of loading in places we dont often see. These lightly loaded pockets may be sensative in places as the snowpack surface below them was quite hard and icy. A few natural small avalanches were sighted during this wind shift but were all quite small. Since yesterday afternoon winds have lowered to 10-15 mph out of the SSE once again. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. Later today into tomorrow we will see snow entering our mountain regions once again. Most of it is expected to be late tonight and into tomorrow. Temperatures will be rising slightly during this event. Be aware the new snows may not bond well to the old icy snow surface. Winds are also expected to increase during this new snow event. Avalanche dangers will rise again at that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-11

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received 1.2" of precipitation and 10+" of new snow over the last 18 hours while the winds blew from 20-50 knots out of the SSE. Lets keep it simple folks... AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME!!! Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Todays forecast calls for a touch more warming, continued winds, and several inches of new snow. Dangers may decrease ever so slightly through the day today but will increase again tonight into tomorrow with increased precipitation rates at that time. One of the bigger problems is that all this new snow is being windloaded into our starting zones and is coming to rest on an ice layer that it will not bond well to the new snow for some time. Densities started quite low early in the cycle yet have greatly increased. Overall densities are over 12% at this time. This is an upside down snowpack folks. Placing heavy wet snow on looser lighter snow... You have a stack of bricks sitting on a pop can once again... It may be holding for now... but if you step on the brick... that pop can is going to colapse... And this brick pile on the pop can is resting on an ice skating rink... How is that for some hi tech avalanche info.. The new precipitation rate for today has decreased slightly which may keep us out of a large natural avalanche cycle... Yet some natural avalanches may have already occured and there may still be more. But if your heading out into the mountains be aware... The mouse trap has been set... and is waiting for you to step in the wrong place... DONT GET CAUGHT! Today is a great day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail! Danger is also quite high along Thane road... as the berm is very full and the avalanche track has been filled in and greased by all the other recent avalanche activity... The Urban paths have a little less danger as there is a little more runout between the bottom of the track and the houses... But danger still exists as it is hard to precisely predict how far these avalanches could run. There are 5 red flag indicators of HIGH avalanche danger... Today all 5 are present. Most of the activity should be limited to this 10+" of new snow. Yet be aware in windloaded areas there may be much more depth in the slab adding to the avalanche size. If you do head out into the mountains today stick to low angle, well anchored slopes, no terrain traps, no exposure to cliffs, rocks, etc... For that matter... It may simply be a good day to wait it out... give the snowpack time to settle and bond. Tomorrow AM Eaglecrest will be doing avalanche control and the lift skiing will be safe and AWESOME!!! Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-12

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY, SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31 EARLY. TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Over the last 40 hours we have seen quite a good storm front move through. Precipitation totals have continually been higher than the forecast amounts. Winds have been quite high. We have received 70mm (2.8") of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 40 hours. 40mm(1.6")of that came in the last 24 hours. Where the UAS gauge is reading 30cm (1') of new snow after taking into account overall snowpack settlement and consolidation, the tram summit gauge is showing closer to 45cm (18"). This shows us that spatial variability is quite high and densities are likely quite high as well. This is during a time that the temperatures rose by 8+ degrees at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and 10+ degrees at the Eaglecrest Summit. The majority of this warming came in the first 16 hours but Eaglecrest Summit temps rose by 3 degrees in the last 24 hours and the tram summit rose by about the same right up to 32f at one point. Temperatures have cooled by about 1 degree in the last few hours. But are still very close to freezing at both the Tram Summit and the UAS Mid Mountain Gauge at Eaglecrest. Winds over the last 40 hours have been quite high as well. Starting off blowing out of the SSE at 25-70mph then slowing a little bit in the last 15 hours to 20-45mph which still generates considerable windloading. Spatial Variability is quite high as I mentioned. This new snow came in on top of a relatively hard icy surface in most places which we would typically equate to quite poor bonding. This new snow also came in through great warming which we would typically equate to a very upside down snowpack. But winds were quite high in this storm front from the very beginning. This tends to break down the snowflakes and make them much smaller right from the first minute which can help them to pack to much higher densities than a typical no wind snowpack would see. Where we expected to see a great weakness in the snowpack yesterday and natural avalanche activity I was suprised to actually see very little weakness in the snowpack and almost no natural avalanche activity. Over the last 24 hours we saw a majority of our moisture and for a 40 hour period accumulations totals were very high with considerable to high winds. Even considering the lack of weakness and activity yesterday with the overall conditions in place it is quite difficult for me to say avalanche danger is less than HIGH today. With an additional 1" of precipitation in the forecast models for the next 24 hours avalanche danger will remain HIGH today. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. It appears the majority of the precipition is heading south today. By mid day tomorrow we should start drying out and cooling off. Avalanche danger will start to fall at that time. Today is a great day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance trail. Remember that the berm on Thane Road is also quite full and it will not take much of an avalanche with these high volumes of snow to reach the road. Time is your friend. The more time we give this new snow to settle and bond the stronger it will become. Have a great day and be safe.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-13

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 21...EXCEPT AROUND 15 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS LATE. SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY...COLDER. HIGHS AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. The last few days we had quite a storm move through... Over the last 66 hours we received 96mm of precipitation (nearly 4") which left nearly 2' of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit elevation. At the Eaglecrest UAS mid mountain site that was closer to 45cm (18"). Temperatures rose throughout most of the storm... 7 degrees in the first 24 hours then another 3 in the next 24 hours. Yesterday those mid mountain temperatures were very close to freezing otherwise our snow depth would have been much greater. But recognize that closer to summit elevations we received additional snow do to colder temperatures. Winds were quite strong during this entire event. ranging from 25-70mph in the first 24 hours, dropping of to 25-45 over the next 24 hours. Yesterday we saw winds pick up to 25-45 with a few hours of winds gusting to 80mph! This created a lot of scouring in places and placed tremendous load in other places. Yesterday afternoon the winds slowed down and the precip started to slow. Yesterday Evening winds died off more down to 10-25mph and the precip quit altogether. Since that time the temperatures have started to fall. They dropped by about 6degrees overnight starting to lock up the lower snowpack that was quite wet during the event. But the upper mountain areas will still have quite a bit of new snow. There is great spatial variability. The snowpack has an interesting sandwich if layers. In some places more stable than in others. Yesterday lots of avalanche activity was witnessed. Human triggered avalanches were widespread. Cornices were quite weak. When those cornices fell the too started avalanches. These avalanches were mostly from 4-12" yet much larger avalanches occured in places. They were propagating widely as well, often several hundred feet wide. Natural avalanches were also sighted in the region. Thane road had a very small natural avalanche. Probably from a lower starting zone caused by the warm temps and rains. But much of the upper snowpack remains and is still probably quite sensative. Up near Eaglecrest on Douglas Island large natural avalanches were also reported. One report came in of an avalanche that was several hundred feet wide and perhaps as deep as 3' bring down tons of snow and creating a large powder cloud. Today things will remain sensative in areas. Winds have shifted direction placing windload in new locations. We may see a bit more new snow. But for the most part the trigger for these natural avalanches is being slowly removed. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas. Avalanche Danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Over the next 24 hours danger will continue to decrease yet be aware in places human triggered avalanches will remain possible for several days. Especially with larger triggers like multiple people on a slope... or by snowmobiles. Use caution in the mountains over the next few days. Be conservative. Limit your exposure. Stick to low angle slopes. Avoid terrain traps, cliffs and unsupported convex slopes. Time is our friend. The patient man enjoys powder for a lifetime... the impatient man often finds himself in avalanches sooner... than later... Have a great day everyone. But remember... You need to do everything you can today to stay safe. Dont head into the backcountry without your Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, and Shovel. As well as having a well trained partner who is not pushing you to do things you shouldnt do. Remember if you choose to play in the mountains today... LCES- Place a LOOKOUT as you ski slopes one at a time. Maintain COMMUNICATION with your partners. Identify your ESCAPE ROUTES before entering avalanche terrain. Identify your areas of SAFETY as you ski one at a time from areas of safety to areas of safety... with your lookout spotting you... HAVE A GREAT DAY!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-14

Sat, 14 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE...EXCEPT AROUND 4 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. STRONGEST NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO. We received quite a bit of new snow this week with winds up to as high as 80 mph. This created weak cornices in places and wind slabs in many locations. They were quite reactive throughout the event. Yet at the end of this event the temperatures hovered very close to 0 in our mountain starting zones. This combination of high winds and warm temperatures helped to rapidly consolidate the snowpack. Densities were quite high. Since the end of this first storm temperatures have fallen by 16-18 degrees helping to solidify the snowpack in place. Be aware cornices may still be quite weak in places. Winds have been low since that time yet are expected to pick up greatly today out of the Northeast. Yesterday evening at the tram we picked up just under 4mm of precipitation (about .16"). This delivered over 6cm of new snow. (about 2.2"). Often referred to as COLD SMOKE>>> At the Eaglecrest UAS site during this same time we received 14cm of new snow (5.6") which has now settled into about 3-4". Still very low density powder. This low density new snow will be very easily transported by the winds today. Expect to see tender shallow pockets of snow developing on SW faces throughout the next 24 hours. With this in mind avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. But only for this new snow, and weak cornice areas. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Its going to be a great day. Tomorrow will be much colder and the snow will be much more wind affected. Be sure to bundle up. Its one of those days when you dont want to leave much skin exposed due to the possibility of frostbite. HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE>>> and be safe... Remember your LCES at all time... Place your Lookouts.... Communicate with your partners... Identify your escape routes any time skiing in avalanche terrain. Ski from areas of safety to areas of safety.. Simple practices to use and live by... As well as Tranceiver, Probe, and Shovel... Dont go into the backcountry without them...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-15

Sun, 15 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 14. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 2 TO 8...EXCEPT AROUND 5 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. EAST WIND 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO. Most of the lower snowpack is quite stable. The primary concern for today lies in the new 2-5" of new snow and the wind transport. Areas are being loaded along the channel from outflow winds. These windslabs can be quite sensative. We may even see some natural activity along Thane Road and above the urban zones of The Flume and Perseverance Trail. The Berhands avalanche path also loads during these wind events and can become a concern the longer the winds persist. The snow is quite cold and this makes for powder avalanches that can be quite fast and move great distance. Today is a good day to avoid avalanche zones especially when you can see winds blowing snow off the tops of the mountains and into these starting zones. Be aware in the backcountry windloaded areas will remain sensative as well. Be extremely cautious in windloaded areas. Avalanche danger is Considerable at this time.. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas. ITS COLD OUT THERE>>> BUNDLE UP AND HAVE A GREAT DAY ENJOYING THE SUN>

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-16

Mon, 16 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 3 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 3 TO 9. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 30 BELOW ZERO. Yesterday several natural avalanches were sighted throughout our region. Cross Bay along Thane Road had a natural avalanche caused by windloading on the lookers right side of the basin. It came down across the flat bench that often stops smaller wet avalanches and continued about 20% of the way to the road past that. These E and NE winds tend to load our urban avalanche areas along Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau. They can be quite fast and large in places. Many areas are quite stable right now yet if you find those windloaded areas natural avalanches remain possible as long as we continue to see loading winds. For the next 48 hours winds are to remain moderate from 15-25 out of the E and NE. This is just enough to continue to move loose light snow and keep the danger level up. Avalanche Danger is Considerable today in places. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure to avalanche zones. Avoid spending time in places like Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails. Its quite cold today with mountain top temperatures all in the negatives... Bundle up... and enjoy the sunshine and vitamin D.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-17

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS ZERO TO 6 ABOVE ZERO. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 10 BELOW TO ZERO. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS LATE. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 6 TO 12. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. Although winds have not been extreme... We continue to see loading and natural avalanche activity on South facing slopes... From SW to SE many slopes have been affected. Crown sizes have varied a great deal. Mostly smaller avalanches. Yet a few mid sized avalanches have been sighted as well. Today will see continued moderate winds. Ranging from the East to the North... Look to see continued windloading and the possibility for natural avalanches to continue. Some of our urban paths are getting quite loaded now and we are seeing snow build up in places we have not seen all season. Continue to limit your time in avalanche terrain on or near these windloaded areas. Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails all have potential for natural avalanche releases. Berhands also has potential for natural avalanches. The size of slides is not predicted to be huge. Yet recognize these are powder avalanches. They travel extremely fast and produce quite a powder cloud. This powder cloud comes with quite a wind blast that can cause damage. In the backcountry continue to recognize windloading is continuing. Recognize where these windloaded pockets are building up and avoid them. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-18

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 1 TO 9. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 3 BELOW TO 7 ABOVE ZERO. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS LATE. THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 12. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. Although winds have not been extreme... We continue to see loading and some isolated natural avalanche activity on South facing slopes... From SW to SE many slopes have been affected. Crown sizes have varied a great deal. Mostly smaller avalanches. Yet a few mid sized avalanches have been sighted as well. Today will see continued moderate winds. Ranging from the East to the North... Look to see continued windloading and the possibility for natural avalanches to continue. Some of our urban paths are getting quite loaded now and we are seeing snow build up in places we have not seen all season. Continue to limit your time in avalanche terrain on or near these windloaded areas. Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails all have potential for natural avalanche releases. Berhands also has potential for natural avalanches. The size of slides is not predicted to be huge. Yet recognize these are powder avalanches. They travel extremely fast and produce quite a powder cloud. This powder cloud comes with quite a wind blast that can cause damage. In the backcountry continue to recognize windloading is continuing. Recognize where these windloaded pockets are building up and avoid them. Avalanche Danger is Moderate today. Natural avalanches possible yet not so likely or widespread, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas and yet if Thane Road should happen to slide it may have potential to reach the road. Human triggered avalanches possible especially in windloaded areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-19

Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. WINDY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. EAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. VERY WINDY. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. FRIDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY. VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WIND TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH...STRONGEST NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. Over the last week we have seen quite a bit of clear cold weather with very low humidity. This slowly builds surface and near surface facets in the snowpack that do not bond well to the new snow or windslabs when added. Over this same time we have seen fairly moderate outflow winds from the E to NE loading most of our south facing slopes in places that do not often see snow. Over this period of time the amount of loose snow available for transport has deminished, yet with the very high winds in the forecast for the next 24-48 hours expect to see quite a bit of blowing snow and continued windloading. This continued windloading places additional stress on the weak layers in place in the snowpack. So even though over time our weak layers tend to slowly heal, with the additional stress on them their stress VS strength becomes more questionable especially as we dial up the winds and add mass more rapidly. Early in the outflow event we saw natural avalanche activity on most all Southern aspects from SE all the way around to SW. The slab sized have varied greatly but this still shows us the presence of these weak layers in place and tells us they are near failure. With the winds picking up today and especially tonight into tomorrow avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas. Be extremely cautious in places like Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails. The Urban zones along the Berhands and The White Path are also at risk. Although slide sizes are not predicted to be large enough to directly affect them, recognize these dry slab avalanches travel quite fast and push a tremendous windblast in front of them. This windblast also carries snow in it with enough force to break trees, and destroy objects. Recognize that there is potentail danger through most all of our urban zones over the next 48 hours. Backcountry danger will also remain, especially in places that are windloaded. Although these wind slabs are becoming quite hard in places, the weak layer is still present, the stress on them is increasing, and with the presence of additional triggers (you) danger still remains. Be safe out there and enjoy another sunny day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-20

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 13 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF TAKU INLET. LOWS 10 TO 16...EXCEPT AROUND 2 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. SATURDAY...LOCALLY VERY WINDY. SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. Over the last week we have seen quite a bit of clear cold weather with very low humidity. This slowly builds surface and near surface facets in the snowpack that do not bond well to the new snow or windslabs when added. Over this same time we have seen fairly moderate outflow winds from the E to NE loading most of our south facing slopes in places that do not often see snow. Over this period of time the amount of loose snow available for transport has deminished, yet with the very high winds in the forecast for the next 24-48 hours expect to see quite a bit of blowing snow and continued windloading. This continued windloading places additional stress on the weak layers in place in the snowpack. So even though over time our weak layers tend to slowly heal, with the additional stress on them their stress VS strength becomes more questionable especially as we dial up the winds and add mass more rapidly. Early in the outflow event we saw natural avalanche activity on most all Southern aspects from SE all the way around to SW. The slab sized have varied greatly but this still shows us the presence of these weak layers in place and tells us they are near failure. With the winds picking up today and especially tonight into tomorrow avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas. Be extremely cautious in places like Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails. The Urban zones along the Berhands and The White Path are also at risk. Although slide sizes are not predicted to be large enough to directly affect them, recognize these dry slab avalanches travel quite fast and push a tremendous windblast in front of them. This windblast also carries snow in it with enough force to break trees, and destroy objects. Recognize that there is potentail danger through most all of our urban zones over the next 48 hours. Backcountry danger will also remain, especially in places that are windloaded. Although these wind slabs are becoming quite hard in places, the weak layer is still present, the stress on them is increasing, and with the presence of additional triggers (you) danger still remains. Be safe out there and enjoy another day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-21

Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST SUNDAY... TODAY...LOCALLY WINDY. SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TONIGHT...LOCALLY WINDY. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 10 INCHES. LOWS 18 TO 26. EAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. SUNDAY...SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 7 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 11 TO 17 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. The week long cold temps and wind have created a patchwork of scoured and windslabbed zones that will bond poorly with new snow. While today's accumulations are not expected to be large, the new snow is coming with enough wind to load slopes and easily slide off the old snow surfaces. As we get more snow tonight the potential for medium size slides develops. The winds are variable with local topography. It can be blowing one direction at the channel and the exact opposite direction in a bowl at 2000 feet. The Thane, Behrends and White Path slide paths are all loading. Caution should also be used along the Flume and Perserverance Trails. Slides are not expected to be large, but these are still powder avalanches with airblasts that carry blowing snow that can damage trees, people and structures. In the backcountry areas with windloading will likely be very tender. Be highly conscious of spatial variabiltiy due to shifting localized winds, and a patchwork of underlying old snow surfaces. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today: Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches are likely especially in windloaded areas. Unstable slabs are likely on a variety of aspects and slope angles today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-22

Sun, 22 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING... TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Snow accumulations so far have been less than were forecast, but have come with warming temps and winds varying in direction. Mt Roberts Tram, and the UAS Snow Study site at Eaglecrest both received about 20 cm, but also saw winds up to 40kts last night. The steadily warming temps are creating a bit of an upside down snowpack in the new snow, which already rests on top of the older patchwork of scoured and windslabbed zones. Today's Easterlies will vary from SE around to NE tonight and are just strong enough to create some wind loading. The Thane, Behrends and White Path slide paths are all loading. Caution should definitely be used along the Flume and Perserverance Trails today. Slides are not expected to be large, but these are still powder avalanches with airblasts that carry blowing snow that can damage trees, people and structures. In the backcountry areas the upside down snowpack will be tender in all areas, and all aspects until it has a chance to settle. Windloaded zones will increase the size of the potential slabs. Be aware that avalanches will often propagate from thin to thicker parts of the slab, and use extreme caution in backcountry travel today. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today: Smaller natural avalanches likely, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches are very likely, especially in windloaded areas. Unstable slabs are likely on a variety of aspects and slope angles today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-23

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. Two days ago we received about 7-8 inches of new snow. This came during a warming trend. Temperatures rose by about 14f degrees during that time. Quite often when this occurs we get some cold dry snow that does not tend to bond well to the old snow surface. Then we place heavier, denser snows on top of the weak layer beneath it. During this snow event we had winds driving the new snows from 20-50+ knots. This tumbles the snow across the surface as it loads the downwind slopes. This action tends to break down the crystals and makes them smaller. These smaller cyrstals tend to pack to higher densities. So although we had an upside down snowstorm (heavier denser snow placed on looser ligher snow caused by warming), the winds helped pack the deeper weak layer to higher densities. This removes a little bit of the upside down trend by starting with higher densities right from the beginning. Yesterday human triggered avalanches were occuring on several aspects and in many locations. Primarily on the downwind slopes and even a little below summit and ridgeline due to the wind scouring upper elevatoins and placing some of this snow lower on the slopes. Yesterday was also quite a bit calmer with almost no new snow. This has given the snowpack some time to settle and bond which helps to increase strength over time. With not much new snow in the forecast today, moderate winds, and slightly warming temperatures, Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches remain possible, especially in windloaded areas. It looks like we will start to see greater snow volumes tomorrow into Wednesday. Avalanche danger will increase again at that time. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-24

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 4 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 8 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTH WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. We received 28cm (11") at the Mt Roberts Tram Wx station in the last 24 hours and about 20mm or precipitation.. Roughly 7% pow... The Eaglecrest UAS site is only showing around 20cm (8") during that same time. Winds were considerable from 15-35mph out of the SSE then shifting to the East early this AM. Look to see considerable windloading on the N-W aspects today. Temperatures have remained fairly constant. With as much as 17" of additional snow in the forecast for the next 24 hours in our mountain regions and continued winds avalanche DANGER IS HIGH at this time. The likeliness of natural avalanche will build more over time as this new snow starts to accumulate to higher volumes especially tonight into tomorrow. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural avalanches are likely especially as we start to see greater accumulations. Human triggered avalanches very likely. Early on today we may not see much in the way of natural avalanches but conditions will continue to build. If we should happen to see natural releases of our 4 day possible storm total by the end of this event the slabs could be as great as 33" (16" in last 72 hours plus another 17" possible in the next 24) in depth plus whatever windloading may have occured. Odds are good that the first 8" will remain in place so the slides may not be quite as large. But once they get rolling there is the potential to strip down to the lower weak layers in place in certain spots. Danger on Thane road is HIGH today. It is a great day to limit or avoid travel in that cooridor. Especially tonight into tomorrow as we start to see greater new snow accumulations. Also be aware that the Flume and Perseverance Trails will have great danger for the next 24-48 hours. Today in the urban enviroment slides are not predicted to occur right away or expected to be large. Yet once again from tonight into tomorrow these slide sizes will be increasing and we will have greater danger. The best way to limit your avalanche danger is to simply limit your exposure by avoiding avalanche prone areas. Temperatures will rise slightly tomorrow and we predict that by mid day tomorrow danger levels will have peaked. After the mid day diurnal fluctuation in temperatures we expect to see some gradual cooling and reduction in the precipitation rates. Hopefully danger will start to decrease at that time. Have a great day, Drive Safe, and be EXTREMELY cautious in the mountains should you choose to venture out. Remember good safety practices, spotters watching partners from islands of safety to islands of safety, Always carrying your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovels. Consider staying to lower angle slopes, more trees, and less exposure especially to terrain traps.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-25

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY,SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 11 INCHES. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. On Sunday we received approx. 7" of new snow in our mountain starting zones. This came in fairly dense and is bonding fairly well in places. From Monday into Tuesday we received about 20m of precip that left about 28cm (10-11")of approx 7% snow (light and dry). From last night into today we received another 26mm of precip that left about 20cm (8") of approx. 13% new snow (wetter and heavier). Temperatures rose all day yesterday by about 7 degrees right to the point of freezing at tram summit elevations and peaked out last night by about midnight. Since that time they have cooled off slightly allowing the densities to fall again slightly for this mornings new snow. So we placed a 10+" layer of pop cans down (low density), then we covered it up with about an 8" thick cinder block (higher density). Now we are finishing it off with another few inches of bricks (new moderate density snow). It is only a matter of time until the pop cans colapse. The lower layers are slowly getting stronger over time and the brick layer is tiring out (our precipitation rate is decreasing). So we hope the brick layer tires before the pop cans get crushed!!! (creating an avalanche). Should these avalanches occur there is a possibility they could tear down into the deeper layers of the snowpack. Since Saturday night that could be as much as 26" of snow plus windloading in places. In a worst case scenario this could even tear down deeper in the snowpack in places due to deeper layers of instability that have been left behind since about Jan 8th. We do not expect to see the worst case scenario yet with enough stress on the snowpack this too is possible. Winds were fairly calm during the first part of the week but have picked up in the last 24 hours to as much as 35 mph adding windloading and additional stress to the equasion. The direction changed several times rolling from the SE all the way to SW... So you can assume anything but a North facing slope will have some degree of windloading. With several inches of new snow in the forecast for this morning accompanied by several degrees of warming and continued moderate winds, avalanche danger is HIGH at this time. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely. If we get through the mid day warming and new snow in the forecast without natural avalanches danger levels may decrease slightly this evening as the cooling occurs and the snowpack has time to settle and bond. But human triggered avalanches will remain likely for a while longer. Also later tonight we expect to see additional precipitation enter our region again. So we do not expect to see danger levels decrease in the next 24 hours overall. Danger on Thane road is HIGH today. It is a great day to limit or avoid travel in that cooridor. Also be aware that the Flume and Perseverance Trails will have great danger for the next 24-48 hours. There is high danger in the urban zones as well today both in the Berhands and White path zones. Especially if the deeper weak layers become reactive once again. The best way to limit your avalanche danger is to simply limit your exposure by avoiding avalanche prone areas. Today is a great day to exercise additional caution in all areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-26

Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 25. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We are seeing 25+ knot winds currently out of the East. We have a lot of loose snow on the hill today. This is directly loading the urban starting zones. Winds load slopes faster than new snow can from falling and tends to build weak layers and slabs. We will also be seeing several inches on new snow overnight adding to the equasion with building stress in the snowpack. Todays field results showed weak layers in the snowpack that were being skier triggered which shows they are close to natural failure which can lead to avalanches. Temperatures are expected to remain cool. Winds will be considerable overnight and will continue to load our urban paths. The lower deep layers in the snowpack have started to settle some and bond yet there are still many weak layers present at different depths. Should avalanches occur they have the potential to tear down to the deeper weak layers in place. Avalanche danger is HIGH overnight tonight with the direct windloading on top of the current weak layers. Tonight is a great time to avoid travel in the urban avalanche zones especially along Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trails. The Berhands and White path avalanche zones are also extremely loaded with snow right now and this wind event could start dry slab avalanches which travel quite fast and have the ability to cause damage even from the wind blast that procedes them and also travels farther then the avalanche itself. This forecast will be updated before 7am tomorrow. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas. Natural and human triggered avalanches likely, especially if we see more snow than originally forecast or greater loading winds. Here is a little info for you from the storm system that built the deeper weak layers currently in place over the last few days. On Sunday we received approx. 7" of new snow in our mountain starting zones. This came in fairly dense and is bonding well in most places. From Monday into Tuesday we received about 20m of precip that left about 28cm (10-11")of approx 7% snow (light and dry). From Tuesday evening into Wednesday we received another 26mm of precip that left about 20cm (8") of approx. 13% new snow (wetter and heavier). Temperatures rose all day Tuesday by about 7 degrees right to the point of freezing at tram summit elevations and peaked out by about midnight. Wednesday AM until now they have cooled off by 7C degrees and we have seen several inches of new snow on top of the lower weak layers. So we placed a 10+" layer of pop cans down (low density), then we covered it up with about an 8" thick cinder block (higher density). Now we are finishing it off with another several inches of moderate density snow and loading winds. It is only a matter of time until the pop cans colapse. Hopefully winds will die off or shift direction and new snow loading will be at a minimum. Aviod spending time in the urban avalanche zones.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-27

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received about 88mm or precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram wx station since the 21st. The left us with close to 80cm (32") of new snow overall even after settlement and consolidation. That is a lot of new snow for a 6 day period and even after settlement and consolidation is still quite light averaging about 11% snow water equivalent. Overall temperatures have cooled slightly over the last few days. We have seen light to moderate winds from most all directions during this event. Winds transitioned to considerable a few times during the event as well, from SE to SW and even a little North in the last 24 hours. In the last 48 hours we have only seen about 20cm of new snow (8"), but did have winds pushing up to 40 mph last night for a while. There are still a few areas of concern until the snowpack has a little more time to settle and bond. But in general conditions are starting to stabilize. With another possible 1-3" of snow in the next 24 hours and light to moderate winds avalanche danger is Considerable this am and continuing to fall for the next 24 hours. Natural avalanches possible in places yet would probably be loose snow sluffs off steep open faces that are quite loaded such as Thane Road. These sluffs could tear down to slab avalanches in places as there are still multiple weak layers in the snowpack and a great deal of new light snow. Should these avalanches occur potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas due to the large volumes of loose snow in place. Human triggered avalanches possible in places, especially with all the light loose snow available for transport and the considerable winds we had for a while last night. Danger levels will continue to decrease over the next 24 hours until we see mid day warming tomorrow which will add additional stress to the snowpack. Be aware on steeper open pitches it wont take much to get snow moving right now. We have large volumes of snow in place. The faces are all quite filled in. The glide tracks are full top to bottom and quite smooth from previous avalanches, windloading, and the large volumes of snow this season. Be cautious if you head into the backcountry. Remember time is your friend and things are continuing to slowly stabilize. Yet with all of this low density, light dry snow, it will take a little additional time. Minimize your exposure to avalanches by limiting your time in avalanche terrain. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-28

Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 23 TO 29. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures were steadily warming though the night with Mt Roberts and the top of Eaglecrest both coming up 2 degress Celsius. This is not a large or rapid change, and the temps in starting zones are still below the freezing point. Winds were variable yesterday but came to blow steadily 10 - 20kts from the South and South East last night. Though they are forecast to shift again by 180 degrees over the next 24hrs. Overall the snowpack is settling out. New precipitation is coming in small doses without large amounts of wind. The White, Behrends, and Thane Rd slide paths are all well filled in, and we might see some new cross loading with today and tonights snow. There are no strong triggers for natural avalanches in the forecast for the Urban zones, but instabilities still exist and any avalanche that starts small has the potential of stepping down to deeper layers. In this event potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas due to the large volumes of loose snow in place. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely, but any avalanche has the potential to step down into a destructive avalanche that may come near or reach developed areas. In the Urban Zones use caution under steep terrain and continute to limit your time in avalanche terrain. Human triggered avalanches are likely, in windloaded areas. Unstable slabs are likely to be found by human triggers on a variety of aspects and slope angles today. If traveling in the backcountry be prepared for human triggered wind slabs in steeper areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-29

Sun, 29 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...DIMINISHING LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 25. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. It was good that the snowpack had a chance to settle out a bit and gain stability. We are now begining to add snow again, it is forecast to be moderate amounts without a lot of wind. However pay attention to what is actually happening out there. Three of the areas around us have high wind or winter storm warnings over the next 24hrs. If you see snowfalls higher than expected or high winds the avalanche danger will go up accordingly. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are unlikely, but there remains a lot of relatively recent dry snow on top of the snowpack and any slide has the potential to step down into a destructive avalanche that may come near or reach developed areas. In the Urban Zones use caution under steep terrain and continute to limit your time in avalanche terrain. Human triggered avalanches will become more likely with each additional inch of snow that falls, and remember, underneath that we still have windloaded areas. If traveling in the backcountry be prepared for human triggered wind slabs in the storm layer from the last cycle as well as new snow. Use caution in steeper areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-30

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TONIGHT...SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN BY LATE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 35 BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET. LOWS AROUND 33. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 MPH LATE. We had light winds most of the day yesterday from 5-10mph out of the SE. We had slight warming yesterday morning before the new snow came in. Temperatures cooled slightly during the majority of the snowfall yesterday. From Midnight on Saturday until 5pm today we have received 27mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station. This showed 17cm of new snow on the overall snowdepth sensor. This number does not take into account overall snowpack settlement and consolidation so you can assume the 24 hours snowfall was much greater and getting denser. This is moderate to considerable loading. Last night around 9pm winds picked up to 10-15mph. Later around 2am they again rose from 10-20mph. Now they are over 30mph. During this time they slowly shifted from the NW around to the SSE. This created moderate windloading on the slopes facing SE around to NNW. Temperatures have risen by 4-5+ degrees in the last 24 hours. With additional warming overnight tonight and freezing levels going to 1200 feet by morning, continued precipitation with snow down low turning to rain, and continued moderate to considerable winds at summit elevations out of the SE, avalanche danger is HIGH at this time. Natural avalanches likely especially down low and in the steep filled in paths in the urban enviroment along Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trail. Even possibly the Berhands and White Paths. With massive snowloads in place, the glide track filled in and warming temps it wont take much additional moisture overnight into tomorrow morning to get things moving in places. With the deeper weak layers in place and lots of unconsolidated snow surface avalanches have the ability to step down deeper into the snowpack. Should this occur, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches likely, especially on steep open faces, unsupported slopes, on any convexity or in windloaded areas. Todays fieldwork showed easy skier triggers with slabs over 2' propagating widely in places. Overnight precipitation rates will increase. The forecast calls for as much as 1" of precip in the next 24 hours with continued warming into tomorrow morning. As we see continued warming overnight into tomorrow with rising freezing levels and additional precipitation avalanche danger is HIGH. To avoid avalanche danger simply avoid avalanche terrain. Tonight and even more so tomorrow are a great time to limit your exposure to these avalanche prone areas. Be safe and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-01-31

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET DECREASING TO 400 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. In the last 36 hours temperatures have risen by 8-10f degrees at Eaglecrest Summit and the Mt Roberst Tram Summit respectively. Winds were from 10-20mph Sunday night into Monday afternoon out of the SSE and picked up last night around 4pm to 20-40mph out of the South. We have received 37mm of precip overall since Sunday morning. 20MM of that coming through the day on Sunday then another 17mm of that in the last 24 hours. We received the last 10mm (.4") of precip in the last 12 hours during the warmest part of our storm which was also accompanied by those high winds. We are creating an upside down snowpack placing high density and wind driven snow on top of the looser lighter snows that were in place on Sunday. With slight additional warming in the forecast for today and another .55" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours at these warmer temperatures avalanche danger is HIGH at this time. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas,especially along Thane Road. We may also see natural avalanche activity in the White Path, as well as perhaps along the Flume and Perseverance Trail. The Berhands path is also a concern. Thane Road will be closed from 10am to Noon as the DOT performs avalanche control. This will give us a better indication of the size and volume of avalanche potential should any other natural avalanches occur. THANK YOU DOT! Natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Yesterdays field work showed that skier triggered avalanches were easy to create and with this additional windloading, warming, and continued precipitation throughout the day today this danger is continuing to increase. As we start to dry out a little this afternoon and temperatures start to cool a little tonight danger will decrease slightly for a while. After 3pm tomorrow afternoon into Thursday the forecast calls for continued warm temperatures once again with over 1" of precip in the forecast from Wed-Thurs... and again from Thursday into Friday... Avalanche danger will be high once again during that time. Today is a great day to limit your exposure to avalanches by simply avoiding avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-01

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- STRONG WIND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING WINDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DIMINISHING LATE. THURSDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. Natural Avalanches sited around the community. Avalanche danger continues to rise. Avalanche Forcaste will be updated again within two hours, by approximatly 6:30pm. Monday night into yesterday morning as freezing levels rose accompanied by rains we went into a small natural avalanche cycle. Natural avalanches were sighted on Thane Road and in several paths above the Flume and Perseverance Trails. DOT Avalanche Mitigation work above Thane Road yeilded 4 notable avalanches even after the first natural event of the morning. They pulled down 2 avalanches in Snowslide Creek. One stopping short of the berm and the other reaching the berm with little or no volume. The other two avalanches were in the Cross Bay path. One down the center of the bowl that came about 500' below the center bench stopping well above the road and the other off of the far lookers right near the cornice line area stopping on the bench itself. There may have been additional small releases right in the starting zones but those were not visible above the cloud layer. This helped to remove a great deal of volume from the starting zones in most places and also showed us that while avalanches were easy to trigger they were not massive or running super fast or super far over the lower mountain rain wetted snow. Thank you DOT for doing this before the next few days storm. Temperatures have cooled by 1c degree over the last 24 hours. Winds have calmed down as well, now ranging from 5-15mph. We received 27mm of precip in the last 48 hours but only 10mm of that in the last 24. This rain and warmer temperature helped the lower snowpack to settle greatly as well as reducing some of the volume in the avalanche paths. Now with the cooler temperatures in place this morning things are a little more stable. At upper mountain elevations we still received additional snows that were all quite heavy and wind driven. This can add to the present instability at upper elevations. Especially in windloaded pockets. With the slightly cooler temperatures this morning and not much precip in the forecast for the next 8 hours avalanche danger is Moderate to Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches remain possible especially below the freezing line yet are not as likely. Human triggered avalanches are still probable especially at upper elevations and on steep open unsupported faces, windloaded areas or convex rolls. After 3pm this afternoon precipitation rates will increase greatly. We expect to see as much as 1.25" of precip from 3pm today into 3pm tomorrow. Temperatures will cool slightly overnight tonight then increase to 40+ tomorrow throughout the day. From 3pm tomorrow into 3pm on Friday the forecast calls for as much as 2.08" of precipitation with no cooling over this time. Temperatures will remain near 40 overnight tomorrow night. Once this storm hits today expect to see danger levels rise continually. Now danger is Moderate to Considerable. It will go to considerable overnight tonight. From tomorrow through Mid Day on Friday I expect avalanche danger to be high once again. The size of the avalanches will be determined by how much snow we see up high before this additional warming, as well as by how much rain we actually see and what the intensity rate is. This has the ability to affect lower weak layers in the snowpack that have not seen stress for quite some time. By mid day Friday we expect to see things drying out and starting to cool back off. Avalanche danger is expected to slowly fall after that time. The next 48-60 hours are a great time to exercise extreme caution in avalanche prone areas. Be safe out there folks!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-01

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The Natural Weather Service Forecasts- TONIGHT...WINDY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH LATE. FRIDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. From midnight on the 30th until 2pm today we received approx 20mm(.8) of new snow. This could have been nearly 8" of new snow at our local summit elevations. During that time we had considerable winds out of the SSE. We had several weak layers in place previous to this event and had been slowly building towards a natural avalanche cycle by placing this very heavy snow on the previous soft snows in place. Mid-day today from 2-4:30 we had a breif spike in temperatures from 31-33.5F at Tram Summit elevations. During that time we had 6mm of precip and roughly 6cm of new snow with 40-60mph winds out of the SSE. The combination of these events was enough to lead us into a direct action avalanche cycle. The snowpack had reached maximum load capacity and the direct affect of the new snow, warming, and wind kicked off a natural avalanche cycle. Avalanches were sighted on multiple aspects throughout the Juneau region. In this period of 2+ hours I received calls about a number of natural avalanches. The Bathe Creek Avalanche path was reported to have slid. Several other paths were also reported to have slid on several aspects of Mt Roberts. Towards the end of this event the Berhands path slid. Although this avalanche probably started as a dry slab avalanche near the summit elevations it quickly turned into a wet avalanche at lower elevations. This slowed the slide considerably and it then started to follow the terrain. The transverse gulley at the bottom of the avalanche path which had a fair amount of snow in it still caught most of the slide and directed it towards the south. This natural avalanche stopped below Judy Avenue and above Troy Avenue. It stayed North of the closed road gates and did not affect the urban residents in the avalanche path. As it was near dark I was not able to see how much of the starting zone released. If not all of the starting zone released there is still natural avalanche potential in this path. Please do not go up into the area to look or to walk your dogs above the close road gates. It is still questionably unsafe in that area. There are still several other avalanche paths in the urban enviroment that have not slid and the potential remains. We are still seeing new snows at summit elevations tonight. We expect as much as another .54" of precip by 9am tomorrow which could deliver another 5-6" of wet heavy snow at summit elevations. Adding once again to the danger. We expect as much as another 1.18" of precip in the next 24 hours. This is critical loading and places tremendous stress on the large already weak layers in place. From 3pm to 9pm tomorrow during the warmest portion of this storm and at the warmest temperatures we have seen in quite some time we expect to see as much as another .5" of precip. This is also placing tremendous stress on the snowpack once again. The 48 hour outlook calls for as much as another 2.07" of precip. Also at critical loading levels accompanied by winds and very warm temperatures. Avalanche danger is HIGH at this time and will remain HIGH for the next 48 hours. Even though some paths have shed. They will continue loading overnight. And with multiple weak layers in place there is potential for avalanches to release at deeper depths than we have seen previously. Size during this type of an event is hard to predict but it is fair to say they will not be small... Danger will remain high and avalanche sizes will vary from path to path. Do your best to avoid travel in avalanche prone areas for the next 48 hours. Limit your time along places such as Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trail. Recognize the White Path has not slid yet nor have the other urban paths from the Berhands Path all the way over to the White Path just North of Wickersham Ave. Backcountry danger is also quite HIGH! Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-02

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41...TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DIMINISHING TO EAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. BECOMING VERY WINDY. LOWS AROUND 34 RISING TO NEAR 40 LATE. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH LATE. FRIDAY...VERY WINDY. RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 0 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...POSSIBLE. Thane Road slid and buried the road just after midnight last night. DOT Crews will be playing cleanup this morning. My understanding is they like to do avalanche control once again before placing crews in the slide path. I do not forsee the road being open before noon but this is a DOT question... Just wanted everyone to know AVALANCHES ARE STILL OCCURING. From 4pm yesterday until Midnight we had just barely negative temperatures, 30-60mph winds, 18mm of precip at the Tram Summit Weather Station, and about 13cm of new snow. You can expect there to be more snow at higher elevations adding to the stress and mass equasions. From after midnight until 6:30am temperatures rose from 31f to 34f at the tram summit. Winds have slowed to 20-40MPH out of the SSE. We expect to see slightly cooling temperatures through this morning with only .21" of precip through the 3pm hour. After 3pm today through 3 pm tomorrow we expect to see temperatures rising by 5degrees to the warmest temperatures we have seen in well over a month, maybe more. During this time we expect large amounts of rain coming out of this tropical fetch. From 3pm to 3am tonight expect as much as an additional 1.05" of precip, then from 3am Friday until 3pm Friday we expect as much as another .8". Bringing our 24 hour totals to 1.85" which will place tremendous stress on the snowpack especially at the warmest temps we have seen in quite some time. With the warmest temps we have seen in months, and the largest volumes of moisture we have seen all season... Avalanche Danger will remain HIGH. Lower weak layers in the snowpack that were previously dormant will become suspect once again. So even though we have now had several avalanches in some of our larger urban avalanche paths that is not to say we couldnt see another round of slides at perhaps even greater sizes?? STAY OUT OF AVALANCHE PRONE AREAS FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS! Here is a little more back data for you that I wrote last night around 8pm. From midnight on the 30th until 2pm on the 1st we received approx 20mm(.8) of new snow. This could have been nearly 8" of new snow at our local summit elevations. During that time we had considerable winds out of the SSE. We had several weak layers in place previous to this event and had been slowly building towards a natural avalanche cycle by placing this very heavy snow on the previous soft snows in place. Mid-day on the 1st from 2-4:30 we had a breif spike in temperatures from 31-33.5F at Tram Summit elevations. During that time we had 6mm of precip and roughly 6cm of new snow with 40-60mph winds out of the SSE. The combination of these events was enough to lead us into a direct action avalanche cycle. The snowpack had reached maximum load capacity and the direct affect of the new snow, warming, and wind kicked off a natural avalanche cycle. Avalanches were sighted on multiple aspects throughout the Juneau region. In this period of 2+ hours I received calls about a number of natural avalanches. The Bathe Creek Avalanche path was reported to have slid. Several other paths were also reported to have slid on several aspects of Mt Roberts. Towards the end of this event the Berhands path slid. Although this avalanche probably started as a dry slab avalanche near the summit elevations it quickly turned into a wet avalanche at lower elevations. This slowed the slide considerably and it then started to follow the terrain. The transverse gulley at the bottom of the avalanche path which had a fair amount of snow in it still caught most of the slide and directed it towards the south. This natural avalanche stopped below Judy Avenue and above Troy Avenue. It stayed North of the closed road gates and did not affect the urban residents in the avalanche path. As it was near dark I was not able to see how much of the starting zone released. If not all of the starting zone released there is still natural avalanche potential in this path. Please do not go up into the area to look or to walk your dogs above the close road gates. It is still questionably unsafe in that area. There are still several other avalanche paths in the urban enviroment that have not slid and the potential remains. Avalanche danger is HIGH at this time and will remain HIGH for the next 48 hours. Even though some paths have shed. They will continue loading overnight. And with multiple weak layers in place there is potential for avalanches to release at deeper depths than we have seen previously. Size during this type of an event is hard to predict but it is fair to say they will not be small... Danger will remain high and avalanche sizes will vary from path to path. Do your best to avoid travel in avalanche prone areas for the next 48 hours. Limit your time along places such as Thane Road, The Flume and Perseverance Trail. Recognize the White Path has not slid yet nor have the other urban paths from the Berhands Path all the way over to the White Path just North of Wickersham Ave. Backcountry danger is also quite HIGH! I dont think you would find me skiing in the backcountry today folks... Take a day to hide away... and live to ski another day... Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-03

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- REST OF TODAY...VERY WINDY. RAIN. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 MPH...THEN DECREASING TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. The Mt Roberts Tram JAWS temperature gauge reached its warmest temperature since Oct. 18, 2011 at 3am last night at 44f degrees. Although precipitation totals have not reached their forecast amounts we have received about .5" of precip in the last 24 hours. Winds have been blowing from 25-65 at the Tram Summit out of the SSE while Eaglecrest winds have been 40+ since midnight and are now in the 60-90mph range. Driving winds and the warmest temperatures we have seen in quite some time accompanied by todays rains with as much as another .5" of precip throughout the day will keep avalanche danger at HIGH. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches remain likely. Temperatures are forecast to continually fall throughout the day and rain and wind rates are forecast to continually decrease. By this afternoon into this evening we should be back in a freezing cycle and things will start to stabilize once again. It will take a little time to do so as the snowpack, especially in the lower mountain regions, is quite rain saturated. We went through a large natural avalanche cycle from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday Afternoon with most all avalanche paths in the urban enviroment sliding. A few paths remain and will be quite questionable throughout the day today until things start to cool off significantly. One of those paths is Chop Gulley which comes down across the Flume and Perseverance Trail. This path starts at the highest elevation of any of our urban paths and has more snow than any other place in our region. Today is a great day to once again limit your travel through avalanche zones. By tonight into tomorrow we expect to see some additional stabilization and things should start to return to normal. Thanks for paying close attention to the conditions and HAVE A GREAT DAY.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-04

Sat, 04 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. LOWS 25 TO 31...COLDEST IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY WINDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. Temperatures yesterday at tram summit elevation fell to below freezing for the first time in several days. They remained just below freezing from 1pm to midnight. This is a good thing as it started to freeze the loose wet snowpack back in place. Even more so at higher elevations. Temperatures have risen slightly since that time to barely above freezing now and should stay nearly the same through most of the day. Tonight they will fall once again helping to add to the stability once again. The lower mountain regions remain quite wet and above freezing. Precipitation rates have fallen a great deal over the last 24 hours. The airport is only showing .19" in the last 24 hours and no significant precip over the last 12 hours. Winds have also fallen to single digits in the last few hours as well. Todays forecast calls for steady temperatures, light winds, and very little precip. Although there are still areas of concern both at very high elevations that may not have seen above freezing temperatures and very low elevations where the snowpack is still above freezing, in general avalanche danger is MODERATE and falling. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches may still be possible in places. The snowpack has settled greatly over the last 3-4 days and this too adds greatly to long term stability once the snowpack cools back off. Enjoy a pleasant day and the break from the heavy rains and winds!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-05

Sun, 05 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40...EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN WINDY AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. It is currently 29 at tht Juneau Airport. We are experiencing a temperature inversion. After our period of high avalanche danger earlier this week temperatures cooled off mid day on Friday and went below freezing at the tram summit elevations until Midnight Friday night... Since Midnight Friday night temperatures have risen by 9f degrees at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and are currently at 41f. Once again right at the highest temperatures we have seen since October... At the Eaglecrest Summit temperatures have also been above freezing for the last 12 hours and are currently 35f. This is creating a spring like condition in our snowpack with free moisture and is weakening the bonds. In the end this has the ability to add additional strength to our snowpack due to additional settlement and consolidation, but be aware that through todays diurnal fluctuation and mid-day warming danger levels will be CONSIDERABLE. Some small wet natural avalanches are possible possible in places where the snowpack remains weak. Human triggered avalanches possible, especially on steep open unsupported or unanchored faces or on steep convex rolls. As this inversion breaks down later this afternoon and into the evening we expect to see temperatures falling to below freezing once again and the danger levels will decrease. HAPPY SUPERBOWL SUNDAY EVERYONE>>>

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-06

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 37 TO 42. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FOG LATE. LOWS 20 TO 26...EXCEPT AROUND 38 NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. The temperatures at the Tram Summit elevation have been above freezing for 54+ hours... Temperatures at the Eaglecrest summit have been below freezing for the last 6-8 hours and were barely above freezing for about 20 hours. The temperature at the Airport is currently 29 degrees. So while temperatures at our mountain top summit elevations, and valley bottom have been below freezing some of the time over the last 2-3 days. Mid mountain elevations are staying above freezing. This is a concern as it is creating spring like conditions. The snowpack at mid mountain elevations is starting to have a little more free moisture and less glue holding it together. During the heat of the day with diurnal fluctuations driving all the temperatures in the region above freezing the upper mountain and valley floor will also see more spring like conditions and become more of a concern. There is not much stress being added to the snowpack in the form of precipitation which is good. Yet with above freezing temperatures the snowpack is still weak in places. Knowing that in areas there is the possibility of wet natural avalanches as the snow cleans itself off of the steep rock faces and unanchored slopes. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, mostly smaller wet slides on steep open slopes. Human triggered avalanches are possible as well, especially in mid elevations which have been above freezing the longest. Be cautious on steep, open, unsupported convex slopes. Limit your exposure to hanging slabs above cliffs. During mid day the cornices will also be weaker. The forecast range for temperatures overnight is quite wide with temps anywhere from 20-38 degrees depending on location. Tomorrow will bring higher temperatures, and more direct sunlight which will add additional stress to the snowpack and remove the glue holding it all together especially on slopes facing more south. The likelyhood of avalanches will grow additionally at that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-07

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 36 TO 43...EXCEPT AROUND 51 IN WINDY AREAS. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LATE EVENING. LOWS 29 TO 36...EXCEPT AROUND 47 IN WINDY AREAS. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have been quite warm since 2am on Feb 2nd with temperatures only dropping below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for 10 of the last 124 hours. This is weakening the snowpack by eroding the bonds in the snow. Also warming any exposed rock and putting this thermal energy deeper into the snowpack. This mornings temperature at the tram is 35f. At the Eaglecrest summit it is 31f, while the Airport is again the coldest at 27 degrees. This is showing us the inversion is still in place. Temperatures in town have been well below freezing at night and well above freezing during the diurnal fluctuation of the day. The Eaglecrest summit has been hovering just below freezing most of that time but has also seen some warming at times. Todays temperature forecast range is quite wide. Calling for temperatures as high as 51 degrees in places with the outflow winds. All temperatures will be well above freezing. This could be the warmest day since Mid-October. Be aware this is creating spring like conditions. Especially at Mid Mountain elevations. Eating at the bonds in the snow, especially around trees and rocks. Knowing that it is quite warm once again and natural avalanches will be possible in places as the rocks start to shed, Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches possible, mostly small wet slides in steep open areas and off of the rocks at mid mountain elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible as well, especially in mid elevations which have been above freezing the longest. Be cautious on steep, open, unsupported convex slopes. Limit your exposure to hanging slabs above cliffs. During mid day the cornices will also be weaker. Tonights temperatures will be quite warm as well. Perhaps still the warmest they have been all winter in places with outflow winds. Where oh where did our wonderful winter go... Although we love the warm... we really miss the snow... On warm days one goes to play... but think of avalanches along the way! Have a great day everyone...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-08

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. The snowpack has had a good while to settle and bond. It has been gaining strength. Although the temperatures have been slightly above freezing the solar radiation has been quite limited with our partly cloudy conditions. Avalanche danger is LOW this morning. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. It has still been above freezing at elevation. There still is the possibility for some small amounts of snow to clean off of the super steep rocky areas. But in general any activity would be quite small in isolated areas. This afternoon into tomorrow we will start to see some precipitation enter the picture once again. This will add some additional free moisture to the snowpack and avalanche danger will increase slightly until the cooler temperatures set back in. The forecast amounts are to be small and the temperatures very near to freezing once again. Temperatures not nearly as warm or as wet as last weeks conditions will help to limit the dangers. Be aware with conditions still near or above freezing in areas the cornices may still be weak in areas. But in general danger levels are low. HAVE A GREAT DAY>

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-09

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING EAST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures continue to remain just above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit elevation. This is allowing for continued settlement and consolidation of the snowpack. The precipitation rate has been quite low and the snowpack is having enough time to process the water is it sinks slowly deeper into the snowpack. Although there may be areas of weakness around rocks, on steep sections, near cornices at mid mountain elevations, the temperatures are remaining just a little cooler at the mountain top elevations in the primary starting zones. So even through you might be able to make a little snow move in places at mid mountain elevations in general avalanche danger is low again today. The increased precip rates for tonight into tomorrow will change that a little and the danger may rise slightly if the temperatures stay this warm.... Use a little extra caution in steep open areas at mid mountain especially on convex unsupported slopes above cliffs and rocks. Let hope it cools off sometime soon and we go back into our typical western flow with moisture... right now everyting is coming out of the far south and will stay warm until conditions change. Have a great day everyone....

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-10

Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 43. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. Temperatures have not been below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit in the last 7 days. Mid mountain at Eaglecrest the temps have dipped below freezing 3 of the last 10 days. At our summit elevations we have seen quite a bit more freezing and the snowpack at these elevations is quite stable... In our valley bottoms we had seen below freezing nights for the last week. Daily Diurnal Fluctuations have been taking the afternoon temps well above freezing. Last night saw valley bottom temps only drop to 38 degrees after a new seasonal high of 48 yesterday. That was the warmest day since mid October. With moderate above freezing temperatures again today be aware that the mid mountain snowpack and lower snowpack is becoming much more springlike. Temperatures are not locking the snow back up. We are seeing much more creep and glide in the snowpack at mid to lower mountain elevations. In general things are fairly safe. Yet recognize at these mid to lower mountain elevations the possibility of natural avalanches exists. Snow will start to shed off of the rocks on the super steep pitches. It wont take much movement to entrain additional mass. There is the possibility of point release wet natural avalanches. You may even see some small slabs pop out on steep, unsupported, unanchored convex rolls. We have also seen quite a few glide avalanches in the region in the last few days. These are not typically a concern. They are very difficult to skier trigger. They are also very difficult to predict. To help protect yourself against these types of avalanches do not linger in avalanche terrain. Get in and get out... making sure to use good practices with spotters in place, transceivers, probes and shovels... They are a unique event but noteworthy as temperatures remain above freezing for these extended periods of time. Saturday night into Sunday we will see additional precipitation enter our forecast region once again. There is potentail for the danger levels to rise once again at those elevations.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-11

Sat, 11 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 42. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have not been below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit in the last 8 days. Mid mountain at Eaglecrest the temps have dipped below freezing 3 of the last 11 days. At our summit elevations we have seen quite a bit more freezing and the snowpack at these elevations is quite stable... In our valley bottoms we had seen below freezing nights for the last week. Daily Diurnal Fluctuations have been taking the afternoon temps well above freezing. With moderate above freezing temperatures again today be aware that the mid mountain snowpack and lower snowpack is becoming much more springlike. Temperatures are not locking the snow back up. We are seeing much more creep and glide in the snowpack at mid to lower mountain elevations. In general things are fairly safe. Yet recognize at these mid to lower mountain elevations the possibility of natural avalanches exists. Snow will start to shed off of the rocks on the super steep pitches. It wont take much movement to entrain additional mass. There is the possibility of point release wet natural avalanches. You may even see some small slabs pop out on steep, unsupported, unanchored convex rolls. We have also seen quite a few glide avalanches in the region in the last few days. These are not typically a concern. They are very difficult to skier trigger. They are also very difficult to predict. To help protect yourself against these types of avalanches do not linger in avalanche terrain. Get in and get out... making sure to use good practices with spotters in place, transceivers, probes and shovels... They are a unique event but noteworthy as temperatures remain above freezing for these extended periods of time. Tonight we will see additional precipitation enter our forecast region once again. There is potentail for the danger levels to rise once again.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-12

Sun, 12 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW INCREASING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. At the Mt Roberts Tram summit temperatures finally dipped just below freezing for the first time in 9 days at 4 am this morning. We received 16mm of precipitation in the last 14 hours at that site which left behind 6cm of new snow... quite dense. Eaglecrest has been barely below freezing as well at the summit and warmer lower down the mountain. The UAS site is showing about 7cm of snow during this same time. Winds were quite high averaging from 30-50mph. Be aware there may be some sensative windloaded pockets in places. But this wet snow quite often pastes in and bonds well. In the valley the temperatures have remained well above freezing for several days. With the diurnal fluctuations taking us back into the low 40's for several days and almost to 40 today. Conditions near summit elevations may be quite stable with the exception of those windloaded pockets. Lower down on the mountain where it really hasnt frozen in days the snowpack is a little more rotten. With this 16mm of precip overnight and a little more in the forecast for today avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, yet possible in places with windloading or at mid to lower mountain elevations where the snowpack if rotten. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible, especially wet slides with this new super wet snow at lower elevations where it came in on a sluch surface that was not frozen solid in place. Most activity would be wet slides that are quite slow and tend to be more point release than slab. But in super steep open areas these could entrain more mass. Have a great day and be careful out there everyone!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-13

Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have been below freezing once again for over 24 hours at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit at -2c. They are even colder at the Eaglcrest Summit. This is once again locking up the lower snowpack that was quite wet and above freezing for over a week. We have received about 20mm of precip in the last 36 hours at the Tram Summit which left about 8cm of new heavy wet snow. Winds have been in the 25-40mph range for the last few hours. This heavy wet snow and wind often bonds well to the old snow surface. Look to see small windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline in wind exposed areas. These small pockets may be trigger sensative. With exception to that the avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely with the exception of those windloaded pockets that should be quite small should they occur. During the diurnal fluctuation this afternoon during the heat of the day we may see some small activity as this new snow cleans itself off of trees and rocks in steep open areas. This activity should be small. Tomorrow afternoon we may see some additional precipitation and conditions may change at that time. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-14

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures are very near to freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. They are even colder at the Eaglcrest Summit at about -3c. This is once again locking up the upper snowpack that was quite wet and above freezing for over a week. We received a few inches of wet snow up high in the last few days that my clean itself off of trees and rocks. This may start a few small point release wet slides as it does. Winds have been in the 10-15mph range for the last few hours. Look to see small windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline in wind exposed areas. These small pockets may be trigger sensative. With exception to that the avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely with the exception of those windloaded pockets that should be quite small should they occur. During the diurnal fluctuation this afternoon during the heat of the day we may see some small activity as this new snow cleans itself off of trees and rocks in steep open areas. This activity should be small. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-15

Wed, 15 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 700 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. We had rains to summit elevation with temperatures above freezing last week and before. Since that time temperatures have cooled off and the snowpack has become quite solid in place. Over the weekend we saw 3-4" of new snow and some moderate winds out of the SSE. The snow came in quite wet and heavy. For the most part bonding was pretty good. We did see a few windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline on NNW slopes but most of them are stable in place. We have seen a few continued point release avalanches during the diurnal fluctuations of the day as the snow cleaned itself off of steep rocky faces and trees. Most of this activity was quite small. We continue to see moderate glide activity in places. Yet these areas are not easy to forecast for. Temperatures have been just below freezing at tram summit elevations for the last 24 hours and closer to 25f at the Eaglecrest summit. Tram winds have been light from 5-10mph while the Douglas Island winds have been closer to 15-20mph. Todays forecast calls for increased precipitation through the afternoon into the evening and overnight. But 24 hour totals are well below 1" of precip. Probably closer to .7" max. Winds will remain moderate our of the SE from 10-15 and higher at summit and ridgeline. Avalanche danger may grow slightly as this new snow comes in with moderate winds. Overall avalanche danger is LOW, it may increase slightly by tomorrow morning. Watch the wind speeds and precip volumes to determine that rise as we go through the next 24 hours. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-16

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET DECREASING TO 600 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. Temperatures remained cool yesterday at below freezing temperatures at tram summit elevation all day. Eaglecrest showed slightly cooler temperatures at about 25-26f. At the Mt Roberts Tram Summit we received about 14mm of precipitation since 4:30pm yesterday that left behind about 12cm of new snow(almost 5"). Winds were out of the SSE at 20-40 mph through most of that event. Winds died off after 3am to about 10-25. The precip rates died off after about 2am. So we saw most of the precip through periods of considerable wind. Eaglecrest didnt see nearly as much snow at the UAS site showing only about 3" of new snow. But had stronger winds at summit elevations. Look for areas of windloading on N-NW facing slopes. These windloaded pockets may be unstable in places do to the hard icy bed surface we have had near summit and ridgeline. But these pockets should also be quite small should anything slide. With continued moderate winds and as much as 5" of additional snow up high possible in the forecast for the next 24 hours avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible yet not widespread. Mostly in windloaded pockets, probably more so along the channel than on Douglas Island due to the larger volumes of new snow. Slides are expected to be small should they occur.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-17

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 800 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 29. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures yesterday stayed below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit at about 30f, while the Eaglecrest summit was slightly cooler at around 27f. The tram received another 12mm of precip and about another 12cm of new snow staying fairly light after what we had seen over the last 2 weeks. The day before we had 14mm of precip and only 12cm of snow that settled into 9cm. So overall in the last 48 hours at the tram summit we have 22cm (about 9") of new snow in wind sheltered locations. The Eaglecrest UAS site isnt receiving or reading nearly as much snow showing a 48hour total of about 11cm(just over 4"). Winds were moderate during this 48 hour event from 10-25mph peaking at 35mph at the tram summit and 15-35mph peaking at over 45mph at Eaglecrest. In general we have not had that much new snow. But this snow fell on a hard icy surface in places. Also we have had moderate to considerable windloading in places out of the SSE. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely with the possible exception of small we slides as the snow cleans itself off of the steep rocks during the heat of the day. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible especially in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline in wind exposed locations on North to West facing slopes. Slides should remains small should they occur. But be cautious of exposed locations and terrain traps. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-18

Sat, 18 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING THEN SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. There have been no significant changes in temperature or precipitation in the last 24hrs. Temps in starting zones have remained below freezing and there is expected to be only a few inches of new snow tonight, with mild winds. Avalanches do have the potential to step down to the interface from the begining of the week (about 8 inches in most areas), but even in that scenario propagation will be limited to pockets, sizes will remain relatively small and not create a large hazard in the urban zones. In the backcountry beware of recently formed wind slabs, but overall stability remains good. Avalanche Danger is LOW today: Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. BackcountryTravel is generally safe. Slightly more caution is advised with particular attention to N through E wind affected slopes between 2000 - 4000ft in elevation.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-19

Sun, 19 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temps are still staying below zero in the starting zones, and new snow has come in with only light winds. Eaglecrest is showing about 15cm of new snow, while Mt Roberts seems to have gotten only about 7cm. Winds peaked at about 22kts but have since layed down. They have been consistent out of the SouthEast. Expect wind loading on N slopes, and cross loading on E and particulary W slopes. This means that the White, Behrends, and Thane Road slide paths have all been cross loading with this storm. Since both winds and amounts of snowfall have been moderate sizes of any slides are expected to be small and confined to the new snow. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Wind loaded slabs possible on steep terrain. Use caution in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. In the backcountry use caution on steeper North and West aspects. Expect cross loading mid-slope.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-19

Sun, 19 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. The National Weather Service reports we will likely see some more new snow this morning in addition to the few inches that fell last night. What snow did fall last night fell during light winds. Upper and mid-elevations saw a short period of warming after midnight but stayed just below freezing. Temperatures will remain near the same threshold up high as the snow line rises to 1000 feet over the next 24 hours. We had light SE winds overnight, mostly around 10kts with peaks around 20kts. These short periods of moderate speeds were capable of transporting snow into lee slopes and start zones. Winds are expected to remain 10-15kts through the forecast period. The current advisory is MODERATE. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but possible with additional load such as a skier or significant change in weather. Expect isolated pockets and wind slabs from direct, and cross loading on N and W slopes at mid to upper elevations. Our Urban start zones have a slightly increased snow load, but are unlikely to avalanche naturally.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-20

Mon, 20 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1100 FEET LATE. EARLY LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. As of 10pm (2/20/12) snowfall amounts have remained modest, about 20cm at the Tram and about 15cm on top of Eaglecrest. Temps have warmed but still remain below freezing in the starting zones. Winds have picked up and there is a lot of snow being transported in the alpine zones. The avalanche danger has been increasing throughout the day, but the amounts of precipitation have been a bit less than expected so far and slide sizes are still going to be on the smaller side. The forecasted storm is still expected to be warm and wet. More than an inch of expected precipitation tonight, accompanied with warmer temps, and more wind. This is our classic storm cycle hazard, and natural releases within the new storm snow tonight and/or tomorrow morning are to be expected. Because the expectation is for the snow line to be about 1100ft, the rain in town SHOULDN'T affect the starting zones, but if the storm is warmer than expected a higher snow line will mean rapidly increasing avalanche danger. The wind is expected to change direction almost 180 degrees mid storm and that will lead to wind and cross loading on all aspects including White Path, Behrends, and the Thane Rd Paths. At this time travel on the Thane Road is still considered safe but caution is advised when approaching or under avalanche paths, and pay attention tonight as the hazard level might increase significantly late tonight. As of 10pm (2/20/12) avalanche danger is CONSIDERABELE. Natural slides possible. Human triggered slides likely. Destructive avalanches are possible and capable of reaching structures and roads in urban areas. Be increasingly cautious in avalanche areas. Small natural releases can be expected any time tonight but are less likely to have destructive slides reach developed areas. In the backcounty be hyper-aware of changing storm conditions and the amount of new snow and wind you find yourself in. Its a great time to think about alternatives to Perseverance and Flume trails as the new snow accumulates up high. Minimize your exposure and stay safe out there.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-21

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38 IN THE MORNING...THEN STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. Last nights storm has dropped about 25cm of new snow at the Tram, and a similar amount at Eaglcrest. Mt Roberst shows 33mm of snow water equivilant over the last 24hrs. This came in with steady South/SouthEast winds that peaked just above 40kt and remain steady around 30kts. Perfect conditions for cross-loading all of the urban slide paths. So far temperatures have remained below freezing in the start zones despite getting close about 9pm last night. It is expected to warm again this morning. The forecast is still calling for another 12mm of snow water equivilant before 3pm today. This would equate to either 4in of snow or a half inch of rain. While the weather service is not calling for rain in the start zones at this time, temps will be quite close to that, and rain on this new snow will almost garuantee natural avalanche activity. The avalanche danger rating is CONSIDERABLE for today: Natural avalanches are probable this morning during the warming and the last of the heavy precipitation, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas but most slides will be smaller in nature. Human triggered avalanches are very likely in wind loaded areas, especially East and West through North Slopes. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. It is a good day to find alternatives to the Flume and Perseverance Trails, and to use caution while driving the Thane Road.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-22

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. On Feb 15th we had a very hard and somewhat icy snow surface in places in the region after a long period of rains to summit and melt freeze conditions. This made the lower snowpack quite solid in place. Since February 15th we have received 70mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station. It has been below freezing almost the entire time since the 15th. It went just above freezing for a few hours on the 15th and again on the 17th. This 70mm of precipitation delivered a total of 55cm(21.7") of new snow at that elevation (approx. 12% density). We may have seen slightly more snow at higher elevations. We have had a fair amount of snow settlement at these near freezing temperatures during this time as well. Currently the overall accumulation since the 15th at the tram weather station is 38cm(13.8"). The UAS Gauge at Eaglecrest is showing slightly less but still near 35cm overall during this time. We had a fair amount of wind during this event with 5 days of winds in excess of 25knots at summit elevations and 2 days where winds reached 50+knots. Most of the wind has been our traditional SSE winds along the channel with 3 exceptions. From the 17th to the 18th we had West winds under 15 knots. From the 19th to the 20th we had East winds under 20 knots. From the 21st to the 22nd we had West winds at Eaglecrest and SW winds along the channel at under 20 knots. Most of the windloading would have occured primarily on NNW facing slopes yet you can assume there may be minor windloading on anything but South facing slopes. Temperatures have cooled slightly over the last 36 hours and winds have died down to under 15mph in most locations. The 24 hour forecast is calling for light winds, constant temperatures and very little precipitation. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time due to the lack of a trigger. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. Most of the snowpack is solid in place yet be aware there may be windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline in wind exposed locations that may be human triggered. Unlikely does not mean impossible. Every slope you choose to play on is an individual decision you must make.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-23

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 24 TO 30. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 8mm of precipitation yesterday with no appreciable new snow deposited after settlement and consolidation was taken into account. The UAS site is showing an inch or two... Winds have been light to moderate out of the South to West at 5-25mph... With not much new snow in the forecast, cooling temperatures, and continued light winds avalanche danger is LOW at this time...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-24

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 17 TO 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 33. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. In general conditions are relatively stable in most areas. I bumped the danger level to moderate this morning for 2 reason... Although the wind gauges in the region are showing light winds... you can see plumes of snow coming off the summits of Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau. I would assume the ridgetop and summit winds are higher than the gauges are indicating... This is creating active loading in our starting zones. Windloading creates instability rather quickly. Especially with new snows for transport such as we have seen in the last week. Be cautious in places along the Gastineau Channel It would not be a bad day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Temperatures have cooled slightly over the last 24 hours. We have seen less than 1mm of new precipitation in that time. Both of these things help lead to stability in the long run. Yet the winds are a factor today. Also be aware that with direct sunlight on the slopes as we get further and further into spring this is having more of an effect on the snowpack. This can erode the bonds in the snow. During periods of direct sunlight expect to see point release avalanches in places as the snow drops off of trees and rocks and continues downhill. As these small pieces of snow fall onto the snowpack surface be aware that they can continue to develop mass and momentum on longer, steeper, open pitches causing these point release avalanches. Avalanche danger is generally low today yet be aware in windloaded pockets and on South to Southwest facing slopes later in the day avalanche danger is MODERATE. Natural avalanches unlikely yet possible in windloaded pockets and on sun exposed slopes, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible, especially in windloaded areas. Be careful out there. Use caution and have an amazing day in the sun!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-25

Sat, 25 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 16 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. We have seen a slight cooling trend over the last 36hrs and no real new snow. These things help our overall stability. The high winds aloft yesterday were moving a lot of snow around. Winds from the North and North West are great for cross loading our urban start zones particularly Cross-Bay and Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. Much of the snow picked up along the ridge tops by the wind was lifted up into the atmosphere and never returned to earth. What remains is a patchwork of scoured mountain and ridgetops with wind-loaded areas below the tops and near tree line level. These wind loaded areas can have slabs 10 - 20 times as thick as the snow that was originally available for transport. The winds forecast for today are light to moderate. Based off the pressure gradients that created yesterdays higher winds aloft I am anticipating the same again today, only decreasing through the afternoon. With a nice sunny day; point releases where snow warms and drops off of rocks or trees then runs downhill without cracking out a slab are to be expected. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches possible, but unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. The highest hazard zones are the new windloaded slabs found just beneath wind scoured elevations (which are likely to be very locally variable), and cross loaded mid slopes on E - S - W aspects. Smaller triggers may not cause these slabs to release while larger triggers such as multiple people on slope or a snow machine will greatly increase the likelyhood. Even though natural releases are not probable they are still possible and these will be dry slab avalanches that run very fast and push a large powder cloud. So it might not be a bad idea to continue finding alternatives to the Flume and Perserverance trails today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-26

Sun, 26 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

CBJ 6pm Updated Avalanche Forecast: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST MONDAY... .TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 7 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 15 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Updated NWS winter storm-warning calls for significantly more snow, with an additional 10-20 inches over the next 24 hours. We have received several inches since this morning. Winds will be out of the East 10-20mph, and have been peaking near 30mph out of the South since early this morning. Temperatures will remain near or below freezing at sea level. We had reports yesterday of some upper elevation point releases in the Thane and Cross Bay paths. Additionally, stability near our Urban starting zone elevations was reported to be good. The dry snow has been running far and fast, especially with most gullies and alders so well covered at this point in the season, but there are lee surface deposits varying from unconsolidated snow to wind packed slab. Avalanche Danger has been moved to CONSIDERABLE given the quantity of snow being called for in addition to moderate East winds. Expect Westerly slopes, including our Urban start zones, to be loading significantly throughout the night. The wind-driven new snow may create a significant hazard. Additionally loading of the previously cross-loaded start zones could trigger a slide that steps down below the wind slab from this last week, making a larger slide. Natural avalanches in our Urban paths capable of causing destruction may reach developed areas, and human triggered avalanches are likely. At middle elevations on shaded or slopes oblique to the sun above the snow line, there is a surface hoar layer that may pose a hazard beyond new snow instability. Avoid Perseverance and Flume Trails through the forecasting period and possibly beyond.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-27

Mon, 27 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 6 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BECOMING 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received about 16mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit over the last 20 hours. This left behind about 15cm(6") of new snow. The Uas site at Eaglecrest is showing a little less snow with about 4" of new after settlement. This is coming to rest on some areas of windslab in places as well in our urban enviroment. Winds started out in the 15-25mph range at the beginning of the storm. More than enough to transport this new snow. During the middle of the storm winds kicked up to over 40mph along the channel and even higher to in the 50's on Douglas Island at the Eaglecrest Summit. The windloads from over the weekend are on a few isolated south facing pockets adding to the uncertainty of instability in those places. The majority of the mid storm winds were out of our traditional SSE direction loading N-W facing slopes. Temperatures rose by an average of 5f during this cycle. Placing heavier wetter snow on top of the light snow from the beginning of the cycle. With a loading rate that was considerable during a period of moderate to considerable warming and high winds, Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable, especially in windloaded pockets. As we go through today we expect to see as much as another 10" of snow at elevation over the next 24 hours. This is Considerable loading. Winds are expected to remain high early on then drop to considerable later today. With todays diurnal fluctuation bringing sea level temperatures up to 38 degrees Avalanche danger is on the rise! Be aware that with additional windloading, snowloading, and continued warming into late in the day avalanche conditions will continue to build, danger will continue to rise, and the probabality of both natural and human triggered avalanches will continue to rise!!! Although danger is not yet HIGH and things could be worse... today is a great day to limit your time in Avalanche Terrain, minimize your risk and exposure, and be extra cautious. Avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail and recognize that in places like Thane Road the glide track is quite filled in, the berm at the bottom is full and it wont take much in the way of snow moving to build enough energy to perhaps hit the road. Be safe out there and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-28

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have received about 30mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours. This left a total of about 24cm of new snow at tram summit elevations. Winds were strong during the storm ranging from 20 to 55mph on the mainland and Douglas Island. Temperatures also rose quite a bit during this storm. In the last 12 hours temperatures have stabilized, winds have been greatly reduced, and the precipitation event is drying out. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in windloaded pockets. Conditions will continue to stabilize over the next 24 hours and avalanche danger is forecast to continually decrease over that time. But be aware that in areas with human triggers the dangers can remain somewhat longer. Hope you enjoy the new snow. Be safe out there and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-02-29

Wed, 29 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 28. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures remained cool yesterday. This mornings temps are 28f at the Mt Roberts Tram and 19 at Eaglecrest. Winds have remained calm for the most part yesterday into today. Our two day rain total is only at the last 14mm from our 30mm storm cycle. This left nearly 10" of new snow at the Tram Summit and in protected areas. This snowpack has now had a little time to settle in place and bond better. If we see much diurnal fluctuation today and mid day warming going over freezing in our mountain enviroments. Especially around trees and rocks that help take in the heat of the sun. Look to see point release avalanches as the snow releives itself off of steep open slopes, rock bands, cliffs, trees. As it comes down mountain look to see them fan out to gather additional mass. Most slides should they occur would be smaller in nature.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-01

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Conditions have been fairly stabile over the last few days. Yesterday winds out of the NE along the channel created windslabs in isolated pockets on sw facing slopes. These pockets were both natural and human triggered easily. Today temperatures will remain cool. Winds bumped up to 20 at Eaglecrest this morning but remain lower along the channel. Precip levels are to remin low this am. Later this evening we will start to see a fair amount of precipitation with as much as 1" possible over the next 30 hours. Avalanche danger will rise at that time. Today danger is low. Be cautious of windslabs in isolated pockets near summit and ridgeline on N-W facing slopes. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely with possible exception of very isolated pockets.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-02

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures warmed up on average of about 2c degrees in the last 24 hours around our region. Yesterday we received about 16mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. This left about 15cm (6") of new snow in less than 24 hours. During the peak of the storm we had 45 knot winds along the channel and 50+ knot winds at Eaglecrest on Douglas Island out of the SE. Look to see windloading on N-W facing slopes today. The forecast today calls for continued 15+ mph SE winds, a little warming mid morning, and as much as 7" more snow at mountain elevations. With moderate new snow loads both present and in the forecast, heavy winds yesterday followed by moderate winds today, light warming that is expected to continue through the middle of the day, avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches possible with additional warming or new snow load, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible especially in windloaded areas.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-03

Sat, 03 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 29. EAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. It warmed yesterday with temperatures coming up to 29 at the Tram and 27 at the Eaglecrest summit. This mornings temperatures have dropped back down a bit to 26 at the Tram and 24 at Eaglecrest. We received 25mm of precipitation in the last 44 hours bringing Moderate amounts (18cm) of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. During the first part of the storm we received 15cm of snow during 12mm of precip... since that time we received only another 3cm of new snow with the additional load of 13mm of precip... So it is easy to see the snow densities increased later in the storm placing heavier snow on the lighter snow in place creating an "upside down" snowpack. This is the primary concern for the day. We had winds yesterday during the first part of the storm from 30-45 mph. Yesterday afternoon around 4 those winds died off to 10-20mph. Look to see windloading on N-W facing slopes. Before this storm we also had a few small windslabs on isolated south facing slopes along the channel. These become more of a concern as we continue to place load on these previously weak layers. Slidepaths are very filled in right now and it wont take much of a slide to get a lot of snow moving in areas. With continued precip today into tomorrow and moderate winds avalanche danger is Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable in windloaded areas. Be cautious on steep open unsupported slopes. Be aware of weak cornices. Be safe out there and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-04

Sun, 04 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 32. LIGHT WINDS. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 17 TO 23. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Temperatures have fallen by 5+f degrees over the last 48 hours. Winds picked up a little overnight from 20-30knots out of the SE but are not back under 10-20. We did not receive nearly as much precipitation as forecast yesterday having only received about .25". Todays temperatures are to remain cool, winds are to remain light to moderate, and there is almost no new precip in the forecast. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in places. Yesterdays fieldwork showed multiple weak layers that were failing easily under compression tests. ECT's were a little stronger. Be aware there may be isolated slabs in windloaded pockets that are human triggerable. With a fair amount of new snow and wind both over the last two weeks the loose snow available to add to the equasion is present. There are multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Spatial Variability is quite high at this time. Use caution in compromised areas. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-05

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 26. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have fallen quite a bit in the last 2 days. Mt Roberts Tram summit temps fell from 26f to 19f. The Eaglecrest Summit Temps fell from 25f to 15f... Winds have been under 20mph for the last 24 hours and under 10 mph for the last 12 ranging mostly from the SE to the SW. We have received only 2mm of precip in the last 24 hours and only 7mm of precip in the last 48 hours. This added only 3cm of new snow after settlement is taken into consideration. With not much new snow in the last 48 hours, not much wind in the last 24 hours, and cool temperatures in place avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches are unlikely as well. There may be a pockett of weakness or two near summit and ridgeline in wind loaded areas. But in general conditions are safe. Danger levels will rise tonight into tomorrow as we start to see increased precipitation, moderate winds, and warming over the next 48 hours. Happy Monday Everyone.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-06

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 9 TO 15 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 1200 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures at the beginning of this storm started out at about 21f at both the Mt Roberts Tram and the Eaglecrest Summit. Since that time they have only warmed about 2 degrees. Look to see temperatures continuing to rise over the next 48 hours. We received about 10mm of precipitation in the last 18 hours. This delivered 20cm of really light fluffy low density snow. Winds ranged from 10-25knots out of the SE-SW. Watch to see easily triggered windslabs on N facing slopes. The forecast for the next 24 hours calls for as much as another 7" of snow, continued warming, and moderate winds. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, especially during the warming to warmest part of the day. Potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Notably along Thane Road, and the Flume and Perseverance Trails. Thane is quite filled in and wont take much to hit the road. Human triggered avalanches probable, especially in steep open areas and in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline. Danger levels will continue to rise over the next 24-48 hours as temperatures continue to rise and the precipitation accumulation rate increases greatly tomorrow night into Thursday. The avalanche sizes will be determined by how much additional new snow we get between now and the time the slopes relieve themselves. Recent tests along Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts show there are multiple weak layers in the snowpack that are also questionable in stability. They are holding well now but the question is how much new snow or rain would it take to reactivate them. Should these lower weak layers become reactive once again the avalanche sizes could become quite large. It looks like tomorrow night into late in the day on Thursday is the greatest concern at this point, yet with this low density snow on the ground and winds we may see activity sooner. Use caution out there. Things look like they are getting interesting. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-07

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Over the last 40 hours we had received a nice little winter storm front. Temperature, although cold during the beginning of the storm warmed up quite a bit throughout. Temps climbed by an average of 8f degrees during the storm and are now right at 30f at the Mt Roberts Tram summit and slightly colder at the Eaglecrest Summit. This is a considerable warming trend for during a storm period over that period of time. We had considerable to high winds during the storm. Summit winds reached speads from 35 to 55 knots during the storm for over 8 hours. We had notable sustained winds from 20-35knots along the channel for most of the storm. Winds were primarily out of our SSE typical pattern yet towards the end of the storm they rolled to the South followed by SW for a period of time. You can assume anything with a north facing aspect to it will have some degree of windloading. We received 30mm of precip during this 40 hour cycle. The first 15mm of precip left 30cm of very low density snow. The last 15mm of precip did not add to the overall height of snow total. You can assume this placed a tremendous load on the current snowpack primarily from the top... weighing down the upper layers while the lower layers remained somewhat lighter. This often creates an upside down snowpack placing heavy dense snow on top of the looser lighter snow in place that we started with. This often creates a concern as it is only a matter of time before these upside down snowpacks fail and settle. Sometimes in place, and sometimes in the vertical plane in the form of an avalanche. Of greater concern is that this upside down snowpack came to rest on. Before the beginning of the new snow on Monday we had a faceted snow surface that often does not bond well to or support this new snow load that is being placed on it. Under this layer of facets along the channel in the urban enviroment last week we were experiencing several weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Some of which were being easily skier triggered as recently as last Thursday. Our concern is that these deeper week layers could become reactive under the load of this new snow. Our worst case scenario right now in the urban enviroments could be slabs of up to a meter in depth. Yesterday we nearly reached a wide spread natural avalanche cycle. We had multiple natural avalanches reported in the area. Mostly mid-sized avalanches. But the storm intensity and warming slowed just in time to prevent a wider spread natural event. The snowpack has stabilized somewhat over the last 24 hours but remains quite weak in places. During today into this evening we predict as much as .42' of additional precip before 6pm. Then the skies open up... From tonight at 6pm to Thursday AM at 6 the forecast calls for 1.04" of precip. Then from 6am tomorrow to 6pm tomorrow the forecast calls for an additional 1.09". and if 2.14" of rain in 24 hours wasnt enough for you... Mother nature decided to add an additional 1.2" of rain over the next 12 hours... So in total our forecast calls for 3.76" of precip over the next 48 hours. This should create widespread natural avalanches if this forecast materializes. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time and INCREASING GREATLY overnight tonight through tomorrow. Sometime tonight as the precip increases avalanche danger will transition to high. At the current time Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable, especially in windloaded areas near summit and ridgeline. Also be careful around terrain traps and unsupported slopes. Yesterday human triggered avalanches were quite common and will continue to be fairly widespread today as well. As we go into this evening and precip levels pick up the danger will transition to HIGH. At that time, Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Today is a great day to avoid spending time in the avalanche paths up the Flume and Perseverance Trails. I would recommend avoiding these slopes for the next 48+ hours. Danger in Thane Road is Considerable today and climbing. I was told last night that DOT is planning a mitigation shoot for there this morning. Great job DOT on being proactive to bring down some of this load before we see the next 3+" of precip during warming. Results of todays shoot should give us a better idea of size of the avalanche potential as we head into the next two days of HIGH danger.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-08

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Since noon on the Monday we have received about 65cm of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. The first 24 hours brought about 30cm (1') of new snow. Then we saw rain to those elevations and quite a bit of settlement. Yesterday around noon temperatures dropped just enough for the snow to start accumulating at the Tram Summit once again. In the last 18 hours we received about 38cm of new snow(15"+). This came from 40mm of precip.(1.6"). Our 3 day Tram Total for precip is over 90mm (3.6") and continuing on that 1+" per day average. Eaglecrest is showing slightly less but still has over 10" of new snow in the last 18 hours at the UAS Weather Station. Winds have been moderate to considerable throughout the storm. We have seen 20-30 knot winds along the channel as where the Eaglecrest gauge has been showing higher winds with averages from 25-40knots. Once again mostly out of our traditional SSE Loading direction. Watch for loading on N NW facing slopes. With 1.28" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours, 2.05" of precip in the forecast for the next 48 hours and warming temperatures avalanche danger will remain HIGH. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. This recent storm is placing a lot of stress on the snowpack in place. Yesterdays mitigation results along Thane Road showed us the lower weak layers are staying innitially strong. But as we continue to add stress over the next 48 hours we have multiple layers of concern that may become reactive.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-09

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...WINDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have received 80mm (3.2")of precipitation in the last 48 hours. This left about 40cm (16")of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and slightly less at Eaglecrest. This is quite a bit of high density snow for a 48 hour period and places tremendous stress on the weak layers that were previously in place. If you look further back to Monday afternoon we have received 110mm (4.2") of rain in 3.75 days. This brought a total of almost 70cm (2'4")of new snow since Monday. This deposited huge wind slabs in places. Winds averaged 20-30 knots out of the SSE during most of this cycle. Last night they picked up to 30-60 knots from 8-12pm. Temperatures warmed yesterday to +1 at the tram summit and right to 0 at the Eaglecrest Summit. Todays forecast calls for as much as another 1" of rain in the next 24 hours and temperatures remaining warm through the morning. Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Temperatures and precipitation rates are expected to start to fall later today. This should start to allow our snowpack to stabilize further. Yesterday at Eaglecrest the avalanche control was producing huge results with slabs releasing from 1-5' deep! Today you can assume that skier triggers of those same depths may be possible in places in the backcountry. This is spookey snow... the kind that may not avalanche on the first or second guy down a slope... it may be waiting for you to break up the slab a bit... but once it gets moving it was traveling far and fast... a place you dont want to be... Avoid steep, open, windloaded slopes, unsupported convex rolls and terrain traps. Things will continue to get better. But today is still a great day to use EXTREME caution if you choose to be in avalanche prone areas. Limit your danger by simply limiting your exposure. Give conditions another day to stabilize and tomorrow will be a much safer, cooler, more powder filled day.. USE CAUTION MY FRIENDS... Were almost out of the woods with this high danger avalanche cycle...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-10

Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1300 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH. Over the last 5 days we went through a fairly good sized winter storm cycle. We received 5" of precipitation over the last 5 days. This left 2'2" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station at 1800'. It only hit freezing for a very short period of time. The rest of the time was near freezing and just below. It is fair to assume that we received even more snow at upper mountain elevations. The possibility exists for that 5" or rain to have left 50" of snow at higher elevations in places. Winds today are from 20-30 out of our traditional SSE direction. During most of the storm they maintained this heading. We had winds from 30-60knots during a good part of the storm. Recent avalanche activity has been widespread. Cross Bay on Thane Road had a large natural avalanche that came near to the Road. The Behrands Avalanche path slid several times from mostly lower elevation starting zones. The weak layers may still be present in the upper starting zones. The White Path had a small slide. Bathe Creek path that crosses the end of Evergreen Ave leading to the flume Trail had a large natural avalanche that left quite a bit of debris. On Douglas Island there have also been many large natural avalanches. Fruit Bowl past East Bowl slid with a crown up to 6' deep. Fish Creek Knob also had a large natural avalanche with a crown in excess of 6'. The Eaglecrest Ski Patrol continues to get large avalanche releases to explosives in area. East Bowl yesterday produced many avalanches in excess of 2' deep. Things are slowly stabilizing over time and will continue to stabilize. Yet this weak layer is widespread and quite deep in the snowpack now in places. It may take a little while longer to heal. With not much precipitation in the forecast today avalanche danger is reduced to Considerable/ to Moderate. Natural avalanches possible, yet not so likely. Potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas should they occur. Human triggered avalanches probable. Be extra careful on steep open faces, on steep convex rolls, on unsupported convex breakovers, near or around cornice lines. Be cautious of terrain traps. Limit your exposure to avalanche prone areas. Be sure to use good practices with spotters using avalanche transceivers, probes, and shovels. Ride from island of safety to island of safety one at a time with spotters in place. Dangers are lowering slowly. Patience is a virtue!!! Ski a safer line today and live to ride another day!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-11

Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. We had a good storm this last week leaving 2-5feet of snow in our local mountain region. We had high winds and lots of windloading during that time. Winds from 30-60 out of the SSE heavily loaded our NNW starting zones. Other starting zones are questionable as well. Things have mellowed out over the last several days. We have received 17mm of precip in the last 48 hours and only 10mm in the last 24 hours. This left a few inches of new snow in the mountain regions and continued to load faces in places. Winds were ranging to over 30 mph yesterday but have fallen today into the 10-20 range today and are expected to remain calm. Temperatures in the mountains now are very near freezing with Eaglecrest being at -1.5c and the tram at .1c. These near freezing temps help the snowpack to settle and bond more rapidly, but with lots of deep instability it may take some additional time stabilize. Temperatures today are to remain near the same. The winds are to be calm for the most part. There isnt much notable precip in the forecast. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Be cautious in the mountain starting zones. Use extreme caution on steep slopes. Especially convex slopes, unsupported rolls, near terrain traps and cliffs. Things are getting better. But I would think if your the unlucky person who steps in the wrong place it could still be a bad day. Use good terrain selection habits and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-12

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 22 TO 28. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have seen quite a bit of new snow over the last week. With 2-5' in our mountian starting zones depending on elevation and windloading in places. The winds blew strong during this system from the SSE up to and above 60knots. Widespread weak layers were found present in the snowpack during this event. We had quite a bit of natural avalanche activity... Manmade avalanches were also quite easy to trigger during this event. Several of these avalanches were quite large in size. Things have calmed down in the last few days. Winds have calmed. Precip rates have fallen quite a bit and temperatures have been very close to freezing which often helps in the bonding process creating increased stability. Yesterday temps went right to 0 at the Eaglecrest Summit from 11am-4pm. On the Mt Roberts Tram Summit they warmed to +2c during that same time. This allowed for rapid settlement and consolidation in the snowpack. Eaglecrest UAS Site showed a drop of a few inches due to this settlement. The Mt Roberts Tram site dropped nearly 6" yesterday. This melt freeze activity and settlement helps make for a much stronger snowpack. The lower weak layers we saw in the snowpack earlier last week have started to stabilize yet remain present. Yesterday skier triggered avalanches were not common yet were still possible in places. Cornices remain weak. Lots of snow is easily sluffed off of the steep slopes. Today the forecast calls for SUN in the afternoon. This will add stress to the snowpack. Look to see point release avalanches in areas where the sun has effect. Snow will be falling off of trees and rocks. In the steep open areas this will have the ability to trigger these point release avalanches. With lots of loose snow available for entrainment these avalanches could become quite large in places. Avalanche danger is Low this am but will transition to Moderate in the afternoon with the sun's affect on the snowpack. Natural avalanches are unlikely in the AM. as the day warms and the sun takes effect look to see these point release avalanches around the region. Avalanche are not likely to reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches may still be possible in isolated locations yet are not widespread. On steeper longers slopes these can still become a concern. Remember to use good travel practices and ride with partners carrying transceivers, probes, and shovels. Ride one at a time with spotters in safe locations. Use caution and enjoy the sun. Have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-13

Tue, 13 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Fore the most part conditions are continuing to stabilize. The possible exception to that is Thane Road that saw some wind loading yesterday. In steep open areas sluffs are still possible. Be aware of weak cornices in places. Steep unsupported convex rolls can often remain a concern for longer as well. We have had a 2 day gentle cooling trend and only 1mm of precipitation. We saw 5cm of new snow added to the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Station gauge due to the windloading so you can see transport is active along the channel. With temperatures forecast to remain cool today, increasing clouds, light to moderate winds, and almost no precip in the forecast, avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Should we see lots of sun today which is not in the forecast... danger levels may increase slightly during the heat of the day... but that is not in the forecast at this time. Be safe and have a great day! WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-14

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have remained relatively stabile at -3 and -5c at the Tram and Eaglecrest respectively. Winds have remained light to moderate with the Tram summit seeing 5-12mph winds and Eaglecrest seeing 10-20mph winds. We have received almost no precip in the last few days with .7mm in the last 48 hours. Settlement rates remain good with the snowpack settling 7cm yesterday. This helps to add increased stability to the snowpack over time. There are still a few questionable deeper weak layers in the snowpack but with not much trigger being added to the snowpack avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Avalanches unlikely to reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches unlikely as well. The Urban starting zones are VERY filled in. The next few weeks could be interesting. Conditions are prime for larger avalanches should we get considerable precip or large storm or warming events. Snowslide creek on Thane road also has a ton of snow. There is questionable stability in the deeper weak layers in that path as well. Most other paths saw activity during the most recent snow/avalanche event but Snowslide Creek did not. The cornice on the South side of the main chute is huge right now and it wouldnt take much of that falling off to possibly trigger the slope below it. The urban areas will require close attention over the next few weeks. Be aware in the backcountry there has also been some wind recently and there may still be small isolated pockets that could be triggered with enough additional stress added to the snowpack. In general conditions are fairly stabile in our local mountain regions. But it never hurts to use extra caution.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-15

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. Yesterdays field work on Mt Juneau confirmed the presence of older persistant weak layers deeper in the snowpack. The surface layers also had some weakness. We saw pencil hard windslabs over 4 finger snow that failed in compression tests on isolation of the column at 20cm. We also saw a faceted layer under some old crusts that failed in tests at 100cm deep. Temperatures rose at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit yesterday and hovered around -1c while the Eaglecrest summit stayed colder at -3c. We have received almost no new precip in the last 3 days. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time for the most part. The Tram and Eaglecrest sumit gauges showed 10-25mph winds yesterday out of the North East. But ground winds in the starting zones were actually much higher. We experienced winds approaching 50mph on the Mt Juneau ridgeline which were quite actively loading our urban starting zones. I am growing somewhat concerned as to what the next snowfall will bring in our urban enviroment. Last week the Cross Bay path had two avalanches. The skiers Right side slid to within 200 yards of Thane Road and the skiers left side slid to within 75 yards of the road. The center of the path has not released since early January and it is safe to assume it may have the same deeper weak layers present in the snowpack. The snowslide creek path has not released significantly in quite some time as well. We did see some small results there with the recent blasting but have had quite a bit of new snow since that time. All three paths that converge on the snowslide creek drainage are quite loaded at this time. Winds over the last 3 days have continued to add to that load as well. The cornice on lookers right of the main chute is also quite large and overhanging. It could fail at any and become the trigger for a much larger avalanche. The Behrands Ave Avalanche Path has had numerous notable slides this winter but all from the lower starting zones. The main upper starting zone is VERY filled in and has deep weak layers present. Time will tell how this persistant weak layer plays out. With not much precip in the forecast I am going to keep the danger rating to LOW yet recognize in certain paths it may be more moderate. Be aware of windloaded pockets on SW facing slopes on Douglas Island as well as along the channel... Recognize that lots of direct sun, warming, wind, or heavy new snow loads could make these layers become reactive once again. Remember if your in the backcountry in these places with windloaded pockets YOU are the trigger and could tip the balance sooner to cause avalanches. Pick safe lines and enjoy another nice day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-16

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS. This weeks field work on Mt Juneau confirmed the presence of older persistant weak layers deeper in the snowpack. The surface layers also had some weakness. We saw pencil hard windslabs over 4 finger snow that failed in compression tests on isolation of the column at 20cm. We also saw a faceted layer under some old crusts that failed in tests at 100cm deep. Temperatures rose at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit yesterday and hit +1c while the Eaglecrest summit stayed colder at -1c. We have received almost no new precip in the last 3 days. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time for the most part yet MODERATE IN PLACES. The Tram and Eaglecrest sumit gauges showed 10-25mph winds yesterday out of the North East. But ground winds in the starting zones were actually much higher. We have experienced winds approaching 50mph on the Mt Juneau ridgeline over the last 2 days which were quite actively loading our urban starting zones. Winds have calmed some now to 10-15mph. I am growing somewhat concerned as to what the next large precip event will bring in our urban enviroment. Last week the Cross Bay path had two avalanches. The skiers Right side slid to within 200 yards of Thane Road and the skiers left side slid to within 75 yards of the road. The center of the path has not released since early January and it is safe to assume it may have the same deeper weak layers present in the snowpack. The snowslide creek path has not released significantly in quite some time as well. We did see some small results there with the recent blasting but have had quite a bit of new snow since that time. All three paths that converge on the snowslide creek drainage are quite loaded at this time. Winds over the last 3 days have continued to add to that load as well. The cornice on lookers right of the main chute is also quite large and overhanging. It could fail at any and is very hard to predict. This could become the trigger for a much larger avalanche. The Behrands Ave Avalanche Path has had numerous notable slides this winter but all from the lower starting zones. The main upper starting zone is VERY filled in and has deep weak layers present. Time will tell how this persistant weak layer plays out. With not much precip in the forecast the danger rating is mostly low yet recognize in certain paths it may be more MODERATE. Be aware of windloaded pockets on SW-NW facing slopes on Douglas Island as well as along the channel... Recognize that lots of direct sun, warming, wind, or heavy new snow loads could make these layers become reactive once again. Remember if your in the backcountry in these places with windloaded pockets YOU are the trigger and could tip the balance sooner to cause avalanches. Pick safe lines and enjoy another nice day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-17

Sat, 17 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. This weeks field work on Mt Juneau confirmed the presence of older persistant weak layers deeper in the snowpack. The surface layers also had some weakness. We saw pencil hard windslabs over 4 finger snow that failed in compression tests on isolation of the column at 20cm. We also saw a faceted layer under some old crusts that failed in tests at 100cm deep. Temperatures stayed just below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit yesterday while the Eaglecrest summit stayed colder at -2c. We have received 6.5mm of precip yesterday with 2" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time for the most part yet MODERATE IN PLACES. The Tram sumit gauges showed 10-25mph winds yesterday out of the North East while Eaglecrest showed 15-30 out of the SSE. We have experienced winds approaching 50mph on the Mt Juneau ridgeline over the last 3 days which were quite actively loading our urban starting zones. Winds have calmed some now to under 10mph. If we should see much sun today look to see point release avalanches as snow falls off of trees and rocks in steep areas. On larger longer slopes this has the ability to get a fair amount of snow moving. I am growing somewhat concerned as to what the next large precip event will bring in our urban enviroment. Last week the Cross Bay path had two avalanches. The skiers Right side slid to within 200 yards of Thane Road and the skiers left side slid to within 75 yards of the road. The center of the path has not released since early January and it is safe to assume it may have the same deeper weak layers present in the snowpack. The snowslide creek path has not released significantly in quite some time as well. We did see some small results there with the recent blasting but have had quite a bit of new snow since that time. All three paths that converge on the snowslide creek drainage are quite loaded at this time. Winds over the last 3 days have continued to add to that load as well. The cornice on lookers right of the main chute is also quite large and overhanging. It could fail at any and is very hard to predict. This could become the trigger for a much larger avalanche. The Behrands Ave Avalanche Path has had numerous notable slides this winter but all from the lower starting zones. The main upper starting zone is VERY filled in and has deep weak layers present. Time will tell how this persistant weak layer plays out. With not much precip in the forecast the danger rating is mostly low yet recognize in certain paths it may be more MODERATE. Be aware of windloaded pockets on SW-NW facing slopes on Douglas Island as well as along the channel... Recognize that lots of direct sun, warming, wind, or heavy new snow loads could make these layers become reactive once again. Remember if your in the backcountry in these places with windloaded pockets YOU are the trigger and could tip the balance sooner to cause avalanches. Pick safe lines and enjoy another nice day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-18

Sun, 18 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 27. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures rose yesterday to +1c and +2c at Eaglecrest Summit and the Mt Roberts Tram Summit respectively. This morning temps have fallen well below freezing once again at -5c and -2c. Winds were quite light yesterday from 5-10 out of the SE. We had a short period of winds from 15-25mph from 9-12pm. We have received almost no precip in the last week. We saw 5mm in the last 2 days which left a trace of new snow. But with yesterdays warm temps it is sure to have bonded well in most places. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Today should remain mostly dry with light east winds. Be aware these winds have the ability to load our urban starting zones if they should pick up much. If we see much direct sunlight today watch for point release avalanches on SE-SW facing slopes. As the day progresses these will become more active especially on SW facing slopes. Danger on Snowslide Creek on Thane Road may be a bit higher. There is a large overhanging cornice there that may get weaker with the diurnal fluctuation and the sun should we see much. This weeks field work showed us the presence of deeper weak layers in the snowpack that may be present on the snowslide creek path. Should this cornice fail there is a possibility that it could become the trigger for a larger avalanche. Danger in this area is more moderate. Please avoind parking at the base of this path. Please do not go hiking along the beach in this area. It can be a risky proposition. For the most part dangers remain low. Choose safe lines and remember to only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain. This is ALWAYS the best practice to operate and live by.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-19

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...LOCALLY WINDY. INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. The last week has been quite calm with very little moisture... This has given the snowpack quite some time to settle and bond. With light winds and almost no precip in the forecast today avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Should we see much sun today avalanche danger may increase to moderate for point release avalanches on SE-SE facing slopes. On Thane Road Snowslide Creek remains quite loaded and has a large overhanging cornice which continues to cause concern. It it very hard to predict cornice fall or stability of cornices. Should this cornice fail there is a possibility of releasing slab avalanches on persistent weak layers that may exist in that path. Although this avalanche would not be huge it is important to recognize this path is still quite filled in and it would run quite a ways. Confidence for forecasting this path is quite poor. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-20

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 25. NORTH WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SOUTH OF JUNEAU. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have only seen 8mm of precip in the last 9 days. We have seen about 10" of snow settlement during that same time. Winds have been light and variable over that time yet not really exceeding 30 knots during that same time. Several events gave us E to NE winds during that time as well as our typical SSE flow. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Look to see the danger level rising slightly today along the channel with strong outflow winds. Wind transport will be occuring placing stress on and adding windslabs on our urban paths. But in general the danger in those paths is to remain low. The primary concern remains Thane Road at snowslide creek The cornice is quite large and the chute will fill in quickly with these winds. Temperatures are to remain cooler today but we may see quite a bit of direct sunlight again over the next 48 hours. This is eating at the bonds along the top of the big cornice there on Snowslide Creek. Should that cornice fail it has the potential to cause an avalanche along that path. There were deeper weak layers present in the region last week and they may still be present in that path. Slide sizes would not be expected to be too large yet with a big enough trigger it may avalanche down to a deeper weak layer in place and with that path quite steep and filled in has potential to come all the way down the hill should this deeper weak layer fail. This is quite hard to predict... yet recognize this potential may exist.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-21

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTH WIND TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Conditions continue to remain clear and cool. Yesterdays temp stayed cool from -3 to -5c at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit while Eaglecrest saw -5 to -7c. Light winds today should slow down the transport of snow that was occuring yesterday. We have seen almost no precip in the last week. The snowpack has had lots of time to settle out and bond. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Watch for windloaded pockets on SW facing slopes today after yesterdays windloading event. Point release avalanche remain possible during todays diurnal fluctuation with sun in the forecast. Thane Road at Snow Slide Creek continues to have a large overhanging cornice that could become the trigger for an avalanche should it release. Cross Bay saw large avalanches over 10 days ago on both the left and right sides. The center section remains quite filled in. It is safe to assume that it also has a weak layer deeper down in the snowpack. Yesterday that path saw some windloading which adds to the questionability of stability in that path. Mt Juneau's upper starting zones also are quite filled in and have not seen avalanche activity this season. It is also safe to assume they too have deeper weak layers present and got windloaded yesterday. Danger in these paths may be closer to moderate with the possibility of natural avalanches. Yet with not much wind today, cool temps, and no precip I am keeping the danger levels to LOW overall. Enjoy a sunny safe day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-22

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 28. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. Conditions continue to remain clear and cool. Yesterdays temp remained cool and below -3 at both Eaglecrest and Mt Roberts. Light winds today should slow down the transport of snow that has been occuring. We have seen almost no precip in the last week. The snowpack has had lots of time to settle out and bond. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Watch for windloaded pockets on SW facing slopes today after our most recent windloading event. Point release avalanche remain possible during todays diurnal fluctuation with sun in the forecast. Thane Road at Snow Slide Creek continues to have a large overhanging cornice that could become the trigger for an avalanche should it release. Cross Bay saw large avalanches over 10 days ago on both the left and right sides. The center section remains quite filled in. It is safe to assume that it also has a weak layer deeper down in the snowpack. Yesterday that path saw some windloading which adds to the questionability of stability in that path. Mt Juneau's upper starting zones also are quite filled in and have not seen avalanche activity this season. It is also safe to assume they too have deeper weak layers present and got windloaded yesterday. Danger in these paths may be closer to moderate with the possibility of natural avalanches. Yet with not much wind today, cool temps, and no precip I am keeping the danger levels to LOW overall. Enjoy a sunny safe day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-23

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS AROUND 21. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. LIGHT WINDS. Avalanche danger remains low. Conditions remain cool with no precip... Winds have been an issue but we have less and less snow available for wind transport. It will be interesting to see how things bond and stability looks as we start to see some possibility of precip tomorrow into Sunday. Enjoy another amazing sunny day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-24

Sat, 24 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF JUNEAU. HIGHS AROUND 41. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. It has been quite some time since we saw any precip. We have seen lots of winds and cool temps at upper mountain elevations. Temps have gone above freezing at mountain top levels a few days over the last week which helps to add to settlement, consolidation, and stability in the long run. If we get much precip the danger levels will increase. Most of the snow in place is stabile, but the snow surface is quite variable. Bonding may be poor in places as this new snow comes in. There are still some near surface instabilities in places as well that may not hold a lot of load well due to the winds and sun events. Spatial variability is quite high. Danger levels are low today but use caution and be aware as this new snow comes in if we see any accumulation.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-25

Sun, 25 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 29. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. MONDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. With not much precip in the last two weeks, no serious precip in todays forecast, and cool temperatures, avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Be cautious on south facing slopes later in the day as the heat of the sun comes into affect. Point release avalanches are possible on those aspects during the diurnal fluctuation of the day. Enjoy a sunny amazing Juneau Spring Day!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-26

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

TODAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 44. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. With not much precip in the last two weeks, no serious precip in todays forecast, and cool temperatures, avalanche danger is LOW at this time. If we see much sun today be cautious on south facing slopes later in the day as the heat of the sun comes into affect. Point release avalanches are possible on those aspects during the diurnal fluctuation of the day. Enjoy a Juneau Spring Day!!!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-27

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 47. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 47. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE Yesterdays Mt Roberts Tram Summit temperatures were the warmest we have seen in quite some time at 38c degrees. We also received quite a bit of direct sunlight which helps to warm the snowpack surface. Last nights temperatures remained warm along the channel and for the first time in a long time they did not drop back below freezing at the tram summit. They remained at nearly 35 overnight. This is slowly eating at the bonds in the snowpack. Especially at elevations below the Mt Roberts Tram Summit along the channel. Todays temperatures are forecast to be some of the warmest we have seen in quite some time hitting 47 in town. Our forecast has been calling for "mostly cloudy" weather. If this mostly cloudy weather remains MOSTLY SUNNY like it has over the last week this will again, rapidly erode the bonds in the snowpacks near surface layers. Over time if this temperature remains the lower mountain snowpack will become isothermal and quite rotten. Also the upper mountain snowpack will become more reactive, especially during the diurnal fluctuations mid day warming. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches are possible, especially on south facing slope during the heat of the day. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. If we should see much direct sunlight, human triggered avalanches possible, especially on south facing slopes later in the day, or at lower elevations. These avalanches would be mostly point release wet avalanches caused by the warming and the sun. Yet be aware that small avalanches place additional stress on the snowpack and if there are deeper weak layers in place they too may become reactive once again with the smaller avalanche acting as the trigger to larger avalanches. Enjoy a nice day and yet recognize that spring is here. Now is the time to recreate early in the day and understand that avalanche danger rises during the heat of the day. Remember to use additional caution in the later, warmer part of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-28

Wed, 28 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. EAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures reached the warmest they have been in the last 6 weeks yesterday and remained over freezing again all night... at nearly the same temp. Temperatures hit 41f degrees yesterday at the Mt Roberts Tram summit. Only dropping to a low of 39f overnight. Temps have now been above freezing for over 48 hours at that elevation. This is starting to affect the surface layers of the snowpack, especially on south facing slopes that absorb more direct sunlight during the dirunal fluctuation of the day. The Eaglecrest summit has been a little cooler but did stay above freezing for the last 24 hours. Temperatures today are forecast to remain warm. This will continue to erode the bonds in the surface layers of the snowpack. Yesterday at upper mountain elevations you could see the snow cleaning itself off the trees and steep rocky faces as the bonds simply turned to liquid and the snow slid away... This has the ability to start point release avalanches especially on steep open faces. Be aware that during the heat of the day things become the most active. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Natural avalanches are likely. Mostly in the form of point releases. It is important to recognize that these point releases place a tremendous amount of stress on the snowpack and have the ability to step down and propagate into slab avalanches. Human triggered avalanches remain possible. Especially on south facing slopes and during the heat of the day the activity will peak. If we should see the rain in todays forecast recognize this erodes the bonds in the snowpack even quicker than the sun itself. Especially after the warm temps have had 2 days to start the process. Slide sizes are not forecast to be HUGE, yet recognize in places like Thane Road there is still a tremendous amount of snow on the hill and it wouldnt take much to bring a slide down to the road. There is not much transitional area for the slides to slow and stop. The cornice there is still quite large and overhanging and is also getting weaker with these warm temperatures. If the warm temps continue there is a possibility of failure at that point. Should that cornice fail there is the possibility that it could be the trigger for a much larger avalanche. PLEASE DO NOT PARK AT SNOWSLIDE CREEK ALONG THANE ROAD! Also be advised that the Flume and Perseverance Trails are becoming a little more questionable and dangerous, especially during the later part of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-29

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 45. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. Yesterday we hit a 2 month temperature high... Temperatures have remained above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for 72 hours now... This is starting to affect the surface layers of the snowpack and deeper near the rock bands, especially on south facing slopes that absorb more direct sunlight during the dirunal fluctuation of the day. The Eaglecrest summit has been a little cooler but did stay above freezing for the last 48 hours. Temperatures today are forecast to remain warm. This will continue to erode the bonds in the snowpack. The last two days at upper mountain elevations you could see the snow sluffing off trees and steep rocky faces as the bonds simply turned to liquid and the snow slid away... This has the ability to start point release avalanches especially on steep open faces. Be aware that during the heat of the day things become the most active. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Natural avalanches are likely. Mostly in the form of point releases. It is important to recognize that these point releases place a tremendous amount of stress on the snowpack and have the ability to step down and propagate into slab avalanches. Human triggered avalanches remain possible. Especially on south facing slopes and during the heat of the day the activity will peak. If we should see the rain in todays forecast recognize this erodes the bonds in the snowpack even quicker than the sun itself. Especially after the warm temps have had 3 days to start the process. Slide sizes are not forecast to be HUGE, yet recognize in places like Thane Road there is still a tremendous amount of snow on the hill and it wouldnt take much to bring a slide down to the road. There is not much transitional area for the slides to slow and stop. The cornice there is still quite large and overhanging and is also getting weaker with these warm temperatures. If the warm temps continue there is a possibility of failure at that point. Should that cornice fail there is the possibility that it could be the trigger for a much larger avalanche. PLEASE DO NOT PARK AT SNOWSLIDE CREEK ALONG THANE ROAD! Also be advised that the Flume and Perseverance Trails are becoming a little more questionable and dangerous, especially during the later part of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-30

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Althought there is rain and snow in the forecast this systems continues to come from mostly south with a slight offshore flow which should block any significant precip. Temperatures cooled slightly with Eaglecrest summit going back to below freezing temps for the last 12 hours. The Tram Summit stayed slightly warmer and continues to hover just above freezing. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. With continued above freezing temps along the channel the lower elevation snowpack should continue to clean itself off of the steep open faces, and rocks. Even super steep rock faces on the upper mountain may show a little sluffing during the diurnal fluctuation of the day... If we should happen to see much direct sunlight today this process may speed up. This has the ability to generate small point release avalanches especially in the steeper places. Be cautious on south facing slopes later in the day if the sun becomes present. I would continue to avoid parking at Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. Also be aware the Flume and Perseverance Trail become more dangerous on these sunny afternoons if the sun comes out! Enjoy another beautiful spring day Juneau!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-03-31

Sat, 31 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Yesterday afternoon around 4pm temperatures fell below freezing once again at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for the first time in 4+ days. We have not seen any significant precipitation in the last 3 weeks. Avalanche danger is low today. Natural avalanches are no likely. If we see much direct sunlight or warming today during the diurnal fluctuation avalanche danger may increase slightly on steep open south faces especially around rocks that absorb more of the suns radiant energy. My primary concern as we move forward until we see any new precip are the glide cracks and the possibility for glide avalanches throughout the region. Several large glide cracks have been seen opening up on the face of Mt Juneau. Both in the Behrands and White Paths. Also the faces above the Flume and Perseverance Trail have some glide cracks opening up. Most of this activity is at mid elevations. I am not so concerned with the possibility of glide avalanches for the homes in the urban enviroment. I am concerned with the possibility of avalanches coming down in the open meadows above the Urban Zones and along the Flume and Perseverance Trails. Please avoid walking your dogs and hiking in the paths above the Berhands Subdivision. This is not a very safe place to be should we see any glide avalanches occuring.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-01

Sun, 01 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 45. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 46. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With a bit of direct sunlight to start off the day and temps into the 40's again avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. During todays diurnal fluctuations expect to see small point release avalanches as snow continues to clean off the steep rocky faces. Most activity is expected to occur during the heat of the day and primarily on South facing slopes that absorb the most direct sunlight. Once again my primary concern as we move forward until we see any new precip are the glide cracks and the possibility for glide avalanches throughout the region. Several large glide cracks have been seen opening up on the face of Mt Juneau. Both in the Behrands and White Paths. Also the faces above the Flume and Perseverance Trail have some glide cracks opening up. Most of this activity is at mid elevations. I am not so concerned with the possibility of glide avalanches for the homes in the urban enviroment. I am concerned with the possibility of avalanches coming down in the open meadows above the Urban Zones and along the Flume and Perseverance Trails. Please avoid walking your dogs and hiking in the paths above the Berhands Subdivision. This is not a very safe place to be should we see any glide avalanches occuring.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-02

Mon, 02 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 46. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 49. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures warmed to above freezing yesterday during the heat of the day at both the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and the Eaglecrest Summit. They dropped to below freezing at both locations around 9 last night and remain below freezing still at the Eaglecrest Summit. The Tram warmed slightly to +1c. Temperatures are forecast to be warm again today but we should see clouds through the day. The forecast calls for wind at this time with stronger gusts down along the channel. This should keep diurnal warming to a minimum. With not much direct sunlight in the forecast and very little precip avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Be aware the glide cracks on the face of Mt Juneau continue to grow and expand and yet this is a very difficult situation to forecast. Please avoid walking in the meadow areas above the Behrands neighborhood. I would assume if these glide avalanches should occur they may not have the energy to reach the lower neighborhood. It is also my assumption that if they broke free there is probably more danger at the ends of Judy and Troy Avenue as these avalanches would probably follow the terrain and end up shooting off more to the left, but there is already quite a bit of debris in the transverse gulley above the path and this may also affect flow direction. Forecasting timing for these events is next to impossible. Yet recognize that with these cracks present and growing that danger exists in the areas below these cracks.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-03

Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures yesterday were slighlty cooler than the day before yet have remained above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Elevation for over 48 hours once again. The diurnal fluctuation today is expected to bring warm temperatures to our mountain regions once again. In general avalanche danger is low. The difficulty remains in assesing the danger in the glide cracks opening up on the face of Mt Juneau. Glide avalanches are quite difficult to predict. With above freezing temps these cracks continue to expand as the lower snowpack pulls away from the field above. New cracks are forming on the perimeter of the original ones and the questionability of stability is increasing. Please once again avoid walking in the open meadow above the Behrands/ Highland Neighborhood.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-04

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures have been well above freezing once again for the last several days. With high temperatures in the forecast today and direct sunlight avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Look to see point release avalanche during the afternoon heat of the day. Mostly on south facing slopes. Near steep open faces and around rock bands will show the most activity. Please do not park below the snowslide creek avalanche path along Thane Road. This face will see quite a bit of direct sunlight today. Please do not walk in the meadows above the Behrands/ Highland neighborhood under the avalanche path. The Glide cracks along this face continue to expand and this could create glide avalanches. Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine! Remember it is safest earlier in the day and as the day heats up it is best to stay on shaded north facing slopes to avoid higher danger on the sunny slopes.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-05

Thu, 05 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. We have only seen 6/10" of rain since March 11th... WOW. Its been a nice dry month in Juneau... WHERE DID OUR WINTER GO?? Temperatures have been staying above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and a little cooler at Eaglecrest with nightly freezing bringing increased stability to the lower layers in the snowpack. If we see much direct sunlight today look to see point release wet spring avalanches on South facing slopes later in the day. Danger starts on the SE and over time rolls around to the SW by late afternoon. Be cautious along the Flume and Perseverance Trails. Please do not park at the bottom of Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. Please do not walk above the Behrands and Highland Drive neighborhoods in the open meadow. That is an avalanche runout zone... with the glide cracks on the face of Mt Juneau continuing to expand it is hard to say when those areas may release... but rest assured walking in that meadow is not a 100% safe proposition...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-06

Fri, 06 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 51. LIGHT WINDS. We continue to see above freezing temps during the diurnal fluctuations of the day... we have been fortunate enough to see some moderate freezing again overnight... This helps to add stability to the snowpack. Todays diurnal warming will again bring the possibility of point release avalanches to the mountains. Primarily on the sunny south facing slopes. Use caution on South to SW facing slopes later in the day. Enjoy another beautiful day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-07

Sat, 07 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 48. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 53. NORTH WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We continue to see above freezing temps during the diurnal fluctuations of the day... we have been fortunate enough to see some moderate freezing again overnight but only at upper elevations, The Tram weather station never went below 34 last night... Todays diurnal warming will again bring the possibility of point release avalanches to the mountains. Primarily on the sunny south facing slopes. Use caution on South to SW facing slopes later in the day. Enjoy another beautiful day. Be aware of all the glide cracks opening up in the region and avoid those faces as much as possible in your travels. Be sure to think twice as to where you play later in the day. The corn snow is nice to ski and yet can be the course of avalanches in the region. Use extra caution later in the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-08

Sun, 08 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 53. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTH WIND TO 10 MPH. MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 55. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. The last 3 days have been the warmest of the season... Today will reach new high temps for the spring. Although in general avalanche danger is low... Look to see point release avalanches in steep open areas starting around rocks bands. Also be cautious of the increasing number of glide cracks in the region which could lead to glide avalanches. Once again these events are incredibly hard to predict yet be aware in places were glide cracks exist, glide avalanches are possible. The face of Mt Juneau has several glide cracks that continue to expand. It is very possible that these cracks could turn into full depth slab avalanches. The size thus far appears to be what would mostly be small to mid sized avalanches. They would flow like wet avalanches and stick closely to the terrain. In our urban enviroment this often brings them close to the end of Judy and Troy avenues. Please do not walk in the open meadow areas above the Behrands and Highlands Neighborhood. Should these glide avalanches occur this is not a safe location. Please also avoid parking at Snowslide Creek along Thane road. There is still a lot of snow on the hill including the large cornice at the top. This could pose a danger in this area should it break loose on these very warm days. Be cautious on South to Southwest facing slopes especially later in the day as the sun and diurnal fluctuation have much greater affect. ENJOY AN AMAZING SUNNY EASTER DAY>

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-09

Mon, 09 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 56. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 32. WEST WIND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 55. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 33. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Daytime temperatures continue to rise. We saw new seasonal highs yesterday at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit at 46f degrees. Temperatures have remained over 40f degrees for the last 24 hours at the Tram summit. Also a new overnight low/hi temp... In the last week the temps at the Tram Summit evelation have only dipped below freezing for about 6 hours. We continue to see point release wet avalanches in the region. The glide cracks continue to expand. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today with point release avalanches expected. Be aware that with these extremely warm mountain temps there is also the possibility for those glide avalanches to release. Please do not walk in the areas above the Behrands Neighborhood in the open meadows also known as the "AVALANCHE RUNOUT ZONE" Please do not park at Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. The cornice there is also quite weak and could fail with these continually warm temps. Remember the south to southwest facing slopes will also have increased activity due to the direct sunlight expecially later in the day. Have a great day and be careful out there...

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-10

Tue, 10 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 53. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 53. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Overnight temperatures continue to remain warm with the new 48 hour low being over 40f degrees. Mountain top temps also reached a new season high temperature yesterday with both Eaglecrest and Mt roberts breaking 50f degrees. As this long warm period continues we see the free moisture in the snowpack continue to go deeper and deeper loosening the bonds deeper in the pack that have been holding the snow solidly in place. We will continue to see point release avalanches and some pitches with shallower snowpacks may start releasing at the earth surface as the snowpack goes isothermal in places. The Flume and Perseverance Trails may see some activity from above as Chop Gulley starts its spring shedding. Thane Road may also see some activity above it as we start to peel layers off of the spring onion... There are also glide cracks starting to form on sevaral slopes in the snowslide creek drainage. Once again I would avoid parking at the base of snowslide creek. The glide cracks on the Behrands avalanche path continue to expand and may eventually release yet this is a very hard condition to predict. Once again please avoid walking in the meadows (runout zone) below the avalanche path there. With no precip in the forecast and perhaps a little less sun today the trigger is not as large as it could be for avalanches. If the sun pops out today be aware danger levels will increase additionally on sun exposed faces especially during the heat of the day. Have another beautiful day out there folks.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-11

Wed, 11 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 53. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 54. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures continue to remain quite warm. The Mt Roberts Tram Weather Station is only showing about 12 hours of below freezing temperatures in the last 10 days. Overnight lows have remained higher than 40 degrees at Tram Summit elevations. The free moisture in the snowpack continues to penetrate deeper and deeper especially in areas around trees and rocks that act as heat magnets. The upper layers of the snowpack are becomimg isothermal and at lower elevations and around some trees and rocke it has gone all the way to the ground. This eats at the bonds in the snowpack. The glue is gone... what is left is no longer the block of ice it was two weeks ago. It is starting to become a slurpee... and on steeper pitches continues to fight gravity until it releives itself of this stress in the form of wet spring avalanches. Most of this activity remains small yet in a few key locations it is important to recognize they could be large enough to have an effect. Once again please avoid parking at Snowslide Creek along Thane Road. The upper cornice there may becoming weak. Also the face itself has developed several glide cracks that have the ability to turn into full depth glide avalanches. Please avoid walking in the avalanche runout zoned above the Behrands Neighborhood. There are also large glide cracks accross the middle of the Behrands avalanche path that continue to slowly expand. If we see this predicted rain showers this could actually add additional free moisture to the snowpack and tip the balance to seeing even more activity. Most slides should be small yet recognize if your in the wrong place at the wrong time... there is no such thing as small... Have a good day... and hope the sun comes out to play once again!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-12

Thu, 12 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 54. NORTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS 52 TO 57. LIGHT WINDS. Well the offshore flow from the SE continues... although it looks like we may see some clouds this afternoon it has been doing a good job of breaking up most every afternoon. Although temperatures flattened out a little yesterday... the overnight low reached a new high with temps of 43f at Eaglecrest and 46f at the Mt Roberts Tram. This is quite warm. Our snowpack is no longer freezing again overnight... this is the 4th night in a row with temps greater than 40f degrees... This continues to erode the bonds in the snowpack deeper and deeper adding to the possible instabilities... Look to see continued avalanche activity as we peel the layers off of the snowpack onion... Steep open slopes will continue to shed. Even more so in shallow areas where this isothermal condition reaches all the way to the ground. Be increasingly aware of the steep sections over the urban paths. The glide cracks on the face of the White Avalanche Path and the Behrands Avalanche Path continue to expand. Releases in these areas are hard to predict yet be aware there is danger present in the meadows above the homes in both paths. Please do not go for walks in the avalanche runout zones in those areas. Snowslide Creek at Thane is also starting to see some glide activity. As well as the presence of a large cornice in this path that is continually weakening... Please do not park at the base of the snowslide creek avalanche path. Recognize that the Flume and Perseverance trail also cross avalanche zones. Chop Gulley above the flume train is starting to get glide cracks as well and will start its spring shedding sometime soon. Be aware that if this goes larger than expected it could reach the trail in this area. Remember with direct sunlight the danger rises... yet even without... right now with the high overnight temps there is danger present on all aspects at most all elevations in our near sea level region. Use caution when traveling in avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-13

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 55. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 56. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures in the region continue to climb... last nights Mt Roberts Tram Summit temps remained constant at around 46f degrees. We continue to erode the bonds in the snowpack and see glide avalanches and small wet point release avalanches on steep rocky faces in the region. The offshore flow from the SE continues... although it looks like we may see some clouds today it has been doing a good job of breaking up most every afternoon. These temperatures are quite warm. Our snowpack is no longer freezing again overnight... this is the 5th night in a row with temps greater than 40f degrees... This continues to erode the bonds in the snowpack deeper and deeper adding to the possible instabilities... Look to see continued avalanche activity as we peel the layers off of the snowpack onion... Steep open slopes will continue to shed. Even more so in shallow areas where this isothermal condition reaches all the way to the ground. Be increasingly aware of the steep sections over the urban paths. The glide cracks on the face of the White Avalanche Path and the Behrands Avalanche Path continue to expand. Releases in these areas are hard to predict yet be aware there is danger present in the meadows above the homes in both paths. Please do not go for walks in the avalanche runout zones in those areas. Snowslide Creek at Thane is also starting to see some glide activity. As well as the presence of a large cornice in this path that is continually weakening... Please do not park at the base of the snowslide creek avalanche path. Recognize that the Flume and Perseverance trail also cross avalanche zones. Chop Gulley above the flume train is starting to get glide cracks as well and will start its spring shedding sometime soon. Be aware that if this goes larger than expected it could reach the trail in this area.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-14

Sat, 14 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS 48 TO 53. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS 37 TO 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 53. EAST WIND 10 MPH. For the most part snow conditions remain stabile... we are seeing increasing glide activity on Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail we are also seeing some of the glide cracks on Snowslide Creek above Thane Road continue to expand... The glide cracks on the Berhands and White paths continue to grow as well. Please continue to avoid walking in the avalanche runout zones in these areas. The glide cracks are merging and becoming more continous. Should a glide avalanche occur it still has the ability to affect the runout zones. Our temperatures continue to remain warm. Most of the sunny slope avalanches we have seen remain small. If we should see much in the way of rains there may be greater danger but for the most part conditions good. Be aware that cornices in areas may be weak as they are no longer seeing freezing conditions. Head up to Eaglecrest this weekend to enjoy the end of the year festivities... Its a great chance to see Juneau friends and enjoy a great day in the outdoors.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-15

Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 55. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 52. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. Well it looks like we finally broke our offshore flow... just in time to finish the ski season... Now when they say chance of rain... the sat pics actually look like it... Temperatures were slightly cooler yesterday but continue to remain a constant 40+ even at tram summit elevations. For the most part snow conditions remain stabile... we are seeing increasing glide activity on Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail we are also seeing some of the glide cracks on Snowslide Creek above Thane Road continue to expand... The glide cracks on the Berhands and White paths continue to grow as well. Please continue to avoid walking in the avalanche runout zones in these areas. The glide cracks are merging and becoming more continous. Should a glide avalanche occur it still has the ability to affect the runout zones. Our temperatures continue to remain warm. Most of the sunny slope avalanches we have seen remain small. If we should see much in the way of rains there may be greater danger but for the most part conditions are good. Be aware that cornices in areas may be weak as they are no longer seeing freezing conditions. Head up to Eaglecrest today to enjoy the end of the year festivities... Its a great chance to see Juneau friends and enjoy a great day in the outdoors.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-16

Mon, 16 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 54 TO 58. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LIKELY LATE. LOWS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 51. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We have another day with a warm SE Flow... Temperatures last night stayed at 43f even at tram summit elevations. For the most part snow conditions remain stabile... we are seeing increasing glide activity on Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail we are also seeing some of the glide cracks on Snowslide Creek above Thane Road continue to expand... The glide cracks on the Berhands and White paths continue to grow as well. Please continue to avoid walking in the avalanche runout zones in these areas. The glide cracks are merging and becoming more continous. Should a glide avalanche occur it still has the ability to affect the runout zones. Our temperatures continue to remain warm. Be aware of any faces that have glide cracks and make an effort to avoid playing around or under them. We are seeing quite a few full depth avalanches in the region especially on SSW Slopes. Most of the sunny slope avalanches we have seen remain small with the exception of the glide avalanches. The direct sunlight warms things up much quicker and we should be very careful as diurnal temperatures reach their highest in late afternoon to evening. Be aware that cornices in areas may be weak as they are no longer seeing freezing conditions.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-17

Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TUESDAY... RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 52. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 37. LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 53. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have another day with some SE Flow but it will be a little cooler today... Temperatures fell overnight to the coolest they have been in a week and yet they remained above freezing both at the Tram and Eaglecrest Summit. For the most part snow conditions remain stabile... we are seeing increasing glide activity on Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail we are also seeing some of the glide cracks on Snowslide Creek above Thane Road continue to expand... The glide cracks on the Berhands and White paths continue to grow as well. Please continue to avoid walking in the avalanche runout zones in these areas. The glide cracks are merging and becoming more continous. Should a glide avalanche occur it still has the ability to affect the runout zones. Our temperatures continue to remain warm although slightly cooler today which is a good thing. Be aware of any faces that have glide cracks and make an effort to avoid playing around or under them. We are seeing quite a few full depth avalanches in the region especially on SSW Slopes. Most of the sunny slope avalanches we have seen remain small with the exception of the glide avalanches. If we see much direct sunlight remember the direct sunlight warms things up much quicker and we should be very careful as diurnal temperatures reach their highest in late afternoon to evening. Be aware that cornices in areas may be weak as they are no longer seeing freezing conditions. Have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-18

Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 56. SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 39. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 51. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have not touched freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit for 12 days... and have only been below freezing for 6 hours in the last 16 days. Snow continues to clean itself off of the rocks and grass on steep open faces. Be aware if you are below super steep pitches snow will be seen moving today especially in the sunnier areas. Slide sizes are expected to remain small on most all aspects. Once again be aware of glide avalanche potential on the faces you have seen in the region where glide cracks are opening up and continually expanding. These are harder slides to predict and yet do have more hazard potential than most of the small wet slides we have seen. Be aware that with the direct sunlight today danger levels will peak during the afternoon on S to SW facing slopes. Best to get out early... and avoid sunny slopes later in the day. The Flume and Perseverance trail still have a tremendous amount of snow looming above... We should start to see Chop Gully unloading its spring layers above the Flume any day now... Behrands also still has quite a bit of snow up high with the glide cracks down low continually expanding as well. Avoid walking in the open meadows below the avalanche path later in the day. On Thane Road snowslide creek still has quite a bit of snow up high with a large cornice that is probably weakening in the direct sunlight. It is also starting to show some glide cracks on the lower pitches which could cause a concern. Snow volumes in our urban enviroments are rapidly dwindeling... It wont be too much longer before the hazard is gone for the urban enviroments. Be safe out there... and have an amazing day. ENJOY THE SUN!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-19

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 54. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH LATE. FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Daytime temperatures continue to remain warm. Yesterdays daytime temps were some of the warmest we have seen this season. For the most part conditions remain stabile. Temperatures have not touched freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit for 13 days... and have only been below freezing for 6 hours in the last 17 days. Snow continues to clean itself off of the rocks and grass on steep open faces. Be aware if you are below super steep pitches snow will be seen moving today especially in the sunnier areas. Slide sizes are expected to remain small on most all aspects. Once again be aware of glide avalanche potential on the faces you have seen in the region where glide cracks are opening up and continually expanding. These are harder slides to predict and yet do have more hazard potential than most of the small wet slides we have seen. Be aware that with the direct sunlight today danger levels will peak during the afternoon on S to SW facing slopes. Best to get out early... and avoid sunny slopes later in the day. The Flume and Perseverance trail still have a tremendous amount of snow looming above... We should start to see Chop Gully unloading its spring layers above the Flume any day now... Behrands also still has quite a bit of snow up high with the glide cracks down low continually expanding as well. Avoid walking in the open meadows below the avalanche path later in the day. On Thane Road snowslide creek still has quite a bit of snow up high with a large cornice that is probably weakening in the direct sunlight. It is also starting to show some glide cracks on the lower pitches which could cause a concern. Snow volumes in our urban enviroments are rapidly dwindeling... It wont be too much longer before the hazard is gone for the urban enviroments. Be safe out there... and have an amazing day. ENJOY THE SUN!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-20

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 49. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 48. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. Temperatures yesterday remained a little cooler than they have over the last 2 weeks although still above freezing. We are loosing the mass quickly above our urban zones. The danger levels may still be there for seeing small avalanches but we have lost enough mass that nothing is expected to be too big. If we see significant precip the dangers could rise a little... but for the most part we are running out of concern for the urban enviroments. Be aware in the backcountry avalanches are still possible for a bit longer. Be cautious on steep slopes showing glide cracks and avoid spending time around or under them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-21

Sat, 21 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 48. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 51. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures yesterday remained a little cooler than they have over the last 2 weeks although still above freezing. We are loosing the mass quickly above our urban zones. The danger levels may still be there for seeing small avalanches but we have lost enough mass that nothing is expected to be too big. If we see significant precip the dangers could rise a little... but for the most part we are running out of concern for the urban enviroments. Be aware in the backcountry avalanches are still possible for a bit longer. Be cautious on steep slopes showing glide cracks and avoid spending time around or under them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-22

Sun, 22 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 52. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 36. LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures yesterday remained a little cooler than they have over the last 2 weeks although still above freezing. We are loosing the mass quickly above our urban zones. The danger levels may still be there for seeing small avalanches but we have lost enough mass that nothing is expected to be too big. If we see significant precip the dangers could rise a little... but for the most part we are running out of concern for the urban enviroments. Be aware in the backcountry avalanches are still possible for a bit longer. Be cautious on steep slopes showing glide cracks and avoid spending time around or under them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-23

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 49. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 10 MPH LATE. TUESDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 53. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures cooled well again overnight and conditions remain somewhat cloudy... We are loosing the mass quickly above our urban zones. The danger levels may still be there for seeing small avalanches but we have lost enough mass that nothing is expected to be too big. If we see significant precip the dangers could rise a little... but for the most part we are running out of concern for the urban enviroments. Be aware in the backcountry avalanches are still possible for a bit longer. Be cautious on steep slopes showing glide cracks and avoid spending time around or under them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-24

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 52. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. LOWS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 55. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We continue to see moderate warm temperatures throughout the region. Today should see some sunshine but not tons of direct sunlight... We may see some of the small amounts of new snow cleaning off the higher elevations. Steep open faces will continue to clean themselves. We are rapidly loosing our snow volumes and will be completely out of concern sometime soon in the urban enviroment. Enjoy a nice day as it looks like tomorrow may bring a little more rain in the forecast.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-25

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 56. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN LIKELY LATE. LOWS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 53. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. Temps last night fell to freezing and below at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and the Eaglecrest Summit. This continues to help slow the spring melt off. We have lost massive volumes in the urban enviroment over the last 30 days... avalanche danger is LOW in this enviroment. Be aware we still have lots of snow in the backcountry. Early in the days the snow conditions tend to be more stabile than in the later afternoon sun... South faces become more dangerous on sunny days... remember to stick to shaded slopes later in the day... Enjoy another beautiful day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-04-27

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0800

With enough snow having gone away from our urban enviroments I am going to discontinue the 2011-2012 avalanche forecasting season. This statement is written on Friday April 27, 2012. If conditions change enough to create concern special statements will be issued. The reason I have left the danger scale posted to moderate for size 2 avalanches is that if you are heading into the mountains in the springtime avalanche danger can exist... Please make educated decisions to determine appropriate actions. Thank you for making 2012 successful for avalanche safety programs in Juneau!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-03

Mon, 03 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The Avalanche Forecast will begin for the 2012-2013 season tomorrow am. Daily updates will be posted by 7am each day throughout the season. Be safe out there and enjoy the snow!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-04

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

Please remember this is an avalanche advisory for the urban areas not a full backcountry avalanche forecast. The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY...LOCALLY WINDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 23...EXCEPT AROUND 12 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With still just 3-4 feet of snow in the urban paths avalanche dangers remain low. Most of this snow is still falling to rest around anchors such as brush, rocks, and terrain changes. This acts like an egg carton to hold the small pockets of snow in place. As volumes grow throughout the season the anchors go away. As more mass is accumulated the avalanche danger becomes more of a concern. Right now in the backcountry snowpack there is a great deal of spatial variability. Near ridgeline there are still a lot of areas of shallow snowpack due to continued winds. These areas may have additional faceting and rotten snows. We have several weak layers in the current snowpack. Most of the pockets of snow are small as the terrain deviation is still great. Be aware of larger pockets of unanchored snow. This is where the avalanche danger will be greater early in the season. Keep an eye out this weekend for complete snowpack updates from around the region as I start to explore the conditions greater.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-05

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS 23 TO 29. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 19 TO 26. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Please remember this is not a complete backcountry avalanche forecast. Make good decisions on terrain and snowpack stability yourself in the region you choose to play in. You can see the weather forecast has a wide range of possible precip amounts. To better understand why here is a little of the forecasters discussion that led to the forecast. SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE...SOME MAKING IT INTO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. GUSTAVUS VISIBILITY DROPPED TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE EARLY THIS MORNING PRESUMABLY IN ONE HEAVY SNOW SHOWER. OTHERS ARE CERTAIN TO FOLLOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE AREA...SPREADING INLAND TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION MORE COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED TONIGHT ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO YIELD ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT THINK FOR NOW A GOOD INCREASE IN TREND IS SUFFICIENT TO GET THE WORD OUT. THINK SCATTERED WORDING WILL BE FINE FOR LYNN CANAL AREA...BUT EVEN THEY WILL BE ON INCREASE TONIGHT. With still just 3-4 feet of snow in the urban paths avalanche dangers remain low. Most of this snow is still falling to rest around anchors such as brush, rocks, and terrain changes. This acts like an egg carton to hold the small pockets of snow in place. As volumes grow throughout the season the anchors go away. As more mass is accumulated the avalanche danger becomes more of a concern. Right now in the backcountry snowpack there is a great deal of spatial variability. Near ridgeline there are still a lot of areas of shallow snowpack due to continued winds. These areas may have additional faceting and rotten snows. We have several weak layers in the current snowpack. Most of the pockets of snow are small as the terrain deviation is still great. Be aware of larger pockets of unanchored snow. This is where the avalanche danger will be greater early in the season. Keep an eye out this weekend for complete snowpack updates from around the region as I start to explore the conditions greater.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-06

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 19 TO 23. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Please remember this is not a complete backcountry avalanche forecast. Make good decisions on terrain and snowpack stability yourself in the region you choose to play in. With still just 3-4 feet of snow in the urban paths avalanche dangers remain low. Most of this snow is still falling to rest around anchors such as brush, rocks, and terrain changes. This acts like an egg carton to hold the small pockets of snow in place. As volumes grow throughout the season the anchors go away. As more mass is accumulated the avalanche danger becomes more of a concern. Right now in the backcountry snowpack there is a great deal of spatial variability. Near ridgeline there are still a lot of areas of shallow snowpack due to continued winds. These areas may have additional faceting and rotten snows. We have several weak layers in the current snowpack. Most of the pockets of snow are small as the terrain deviation is still great. Be aware of larger pockets of unanchored snow. This is where the avalanche danger will be greater early in the season. Keep an eye out this weekend for complete snowpack updates from around the region as I start to explore the conditions greater.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-07

Fri, 07 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 24 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 21. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 26 TO 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received small amounts of snow over the last few days. With a little warming and low to moderate winds. Yet overall snow volumes remain low in our Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts Starting zones. Be aware in the backcountry there is great spatial variability in the upper mountain starting zones from the winds over the last few weeks. Some areas have little to no snow and some areas have closer to4-5 feet. With cold temps this vairability can also change the snowpack structure where we may see more faceting in shallow snowpack areas around rocks in our starting zones. This may become an issue as we see our next storm starting Saturday night into Sunday with increased precip and warming. Overall stability remains good as there are still quite a few anchors present in this shallow early winter snowpack.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-08

Sat, 08 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 26 TO 32. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 10 INCHES. LOWS 25 TO 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast. The snowpack in the urban zones remains shallow with many anchors present. There is not enough snow in these zones to yet pose a threat to the urban enviroment. With this shallow snowpack comes mixed blessings. Although there is not enough snow to hit homes... what this shallow snowpack allow is for the effect of the cold temps we have seen the last few weeks to take effect. With a steep temperature gradient between the earths surface, the snowpack, and the air temperature it starts to change the snow crystal structure to a faceted condition in places. This can build a weak snowpack over time. Especially as new snow load is added. Imagine that you have a stack of full pop cans. They can hold a lot of weight on top of them. If you drain these pop cans now although the structure looks the same to the naked eye they can no longer hold the same amount of weight. This is a concept of what faceting is doing over time to the snowpack... the cold air temps are pulling strength out of the snowpack as this faceting occurs. As long as no additional load is added the snowpack stays stabile. As additional load is added the only question is how much additional load can this weak snowpack take in the areas with faceting. This evening we will start to see a new storm event. We will be placing full pop cans on the empty pop cans in place. (New snow over faceted snow). As this storm continues we will see snow added quite quickly. During the first 12 hours we expect to see as much as 8" of new snow. This is significant loading during that time. During this snowfall event temperatures are expected to rise 9 degrees. This will create heavier wetter snow. Imagine, you have a stack of empty pop cans. You start putting full pop cans on them as fast as you can... then over time you run our of full pop cans and you switch to bricks... then to cinder blocks... How long can you keep this up before the stack fails? This is called an upside down snow event on facets which is not a good thing for stability. We will also see moderate winds during the snowfall out of the Southeast. So Imagine as this wind picks up... the snow gremlins on the Southeast side of the mountains will be shoveling off the new snow as fast as they can and throwing it over the ridge to the Northwest side of the mountain... adding additonal stress during this event. If the pop cans dont turn to bricks this may help. If the winds are slow and the gremlins shovel slow this will help. If the storm dies out before they throw on enough bricks to colapse the stack this can help... But remember just becuase your not seeing natural avalanches does not mean that you do not have a weak snowpack if this event takes place as expected. To see the forecast volumes during the storm and also the rise in temperature go to: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=58.28640&lon=-134.5166015625&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical To look tomorrow morning if we saw those volumes and also the warming you can look at the Mt Roberts Tramway Weather Station at http://lists.ci.juneau.ak.us/avalanche/ To determine if the pop cans turn to bricks or even to cinder blocks you can use this tool. You can look at the snowfall depth in conjunction with the water equivilant. Average densities are around 10% water eq. If you see it start in low densities... then over time see those densities increase you know you have gone from pops cans to bricks or cinder blocks... The only way to know if you have empty pop cans at the bottom of this stack is to dig a pit on the slope you plan to ski tomorrow to see if there is facetig in place. This may or may not exist due to spatial variability. Yet if you have an upside down snowfall event, you do not need the faceting to create weakness. The upside down snowpack (high density over low density) may be enough all on its own. The faceting will simply add weakness to the equasion. Enjoy some great skiing today recognizing there may still be some limited areas of weakness and be aware that tomorrow danger levels will increase quite a bit if this storm comes in as expected. FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-09

Sun, 09 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. We received roughly 12cm of new snow since 6pm last night depending on your locations. Temperatures have risen by 2C+ degrees during that time. Winds have been 20-40 mph on both Douglas and the Mainland. Remember this new snow is comint to rest on a snowpack that is quite faceted in places. Temperatures are forecast to rise another few degrees during the morning hours today. Winds are predicted to stay in the 20+ range at upper elevations throughout the day. With as much as another .9" of moisture predicted at upper elevations in the next 24 hours and as much as .4" throughout the morning, Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time and slowly rising. Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable. Especially in windloaded pockets as this storm and windloading continues. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. The snow volumes are not huge. The warming has been less than expected. But winds will play a big part in the equasion today. This new upside down snowpack is also coming to rest on dry light snow which does not have great ability to support it. Look to see small to moderate sized avalanches around the region today. Be aware of the fact that it does not take a very large avalanche to bury or injure a skier. Limit your exposure to the terrain, especially terrain traps where small avalanches will pile up much deeper and the escape routes are limited or dont exist. We still have a fair amount of anchors in the Berhands and White Paths. Should avalanches occur I do not expect them to be large enough to pose a significant threat. Yet I would avoid spending time above the neighborhoods on the old road beds where people often walk their dogs. The Chop gulley path above the Flume trail is another area of concern as it is quite long and funnel shaped gathering quite a bit of mass into a limited runout zone. Thane road may see some activity at snowslide creek depending on how much wind, warning, and precip we receive. I do not expect there to be enough mass at this point to hit the road and yet I would not recommend stopping or walking along the roadway or above it through that zone. Be safe out there and enjoy another powder day Juneau. Looks like we may be spared of the biggest part of the warming that was predicted. Remember if your traveling in avalanche terrain you should ALWAYS have a well trained partner and both of you should have an avalanche transceiver, probes, and shovels! Practice with your equipment! Know your safe routes, your escape routes, and what your going to do in the event of an accident.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-10

Mon, 10 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET DECREASING TO 700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. We saw 4-8" of new snow from Saturday evening into this morning depending on elevation and location. We received close to 1" of rain during that time at 23mm of precip. This is quite heavy wet snow on what was previously a cold, dry snowpack. The snow went from quite low density to quite high density. Yesterdays snowpit tests showed multiple weak layers on these density changes. You could feel it in walking on and skiing through the snow. Although snowpit tests did not show great signs of instability ski tests were able to produce small avalanches in isolated pockets. Today we may see as much as .75" of precip over the next 24 hours with continued warm temperatures. This will continue to help the snowpack settle and bond over time and yet at the present time there are still multiple weak layers deeper in the snowpack. Avalanche Danger is Moderate today. Although Natural avalanches remain possible and human triggered avalanches probable. These will still only be small slides in isolated pockets. There is still not enough snow in the urban enviroment to be overly concerned. Yet be aware in the backcountry if you choose to play there instability remains. Choose your routes carefully and limit your exposure.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-11

Tue, 11 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. We received 28mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours at the top of the Mt Roberts Tramway. This left us with quite a bit of new snow from Tram Summit elevation up. Eaglecrest is snowing nearly 8" of new snow during the last 24 hours from the UAS Station up. Due to colder temps at higher elevations we may have seen as much as 10" of snow at summit elevations. Winds were moderate during the snowfall starting in the 20's and 30's but dropping down to low teens later on during the storm. The winds started blowing out of the SSE but switched around to the NE during the storm as they started to slow. We can assume we have a fair amount of windloading on the NNW to SW Slopes. All this came to rest on the multiple weak layers already present in the snowpack. Remember in places we have a faceted snowpack. This is greatly spatially variable so this may not exist everywhere. All this heavy wet new snow also came to rest on a base of light dry snow creating an upside down snowpack. It has had a little time to settle and bond but great areas of weakness still exist. We were able to skier trigger small pockets two days ago in isolated locations yet much of the snowpack was still holding in place with the weakness still present deeper down in the pack. This new snow and wind load from the last 24 hours may be enough to take the overall snowpack closer to a state of instability. The mousetrap was set on Saturday night... Yesterday evening into last night we broadened the sweet spot for the trigger and lightened the spring to make it easier to trigger in places. Avalanche danger is Moderate to Considerable in places. The new snow load is slowing this morning and expected to dry out through the day. Temperatures are also falling by as much as 10 degrees in the next 24 hours. So, Natural avalanches are unlikely due to the lack of a trigger and cooling, but skier triggered avalanches are still possible. As we give the snowpack time to settle and bond stability will increase, but be aware if you choose to go out into the mountains today the possibility of triggering avalanches exists. Not only are natural avalanches unlikely but we still do not have quite enough new snow in the urban enviroment to be a great concern. If your heading into the backcountry be aware of windloaded slopes. Be aware of unanchored slopes and convex rolls on unsupported slopes and choose your routes carefully. Time is your friend.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-12

Wed, 12 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. With no new snow in the last 24 hours during a cooling trend with mostly light winds (with the exception of Sheep Mountain) Avalanche Danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches may still be possible in areas in the backcounty. Be aware there are still areas in the snowpack with faceting. There is also still some instability in the snowpack with high density snows over low density snow from our long cold spell in November. Use caution on route selection and avoid steep unsupported convex rolls on slopes with few or no anchors on rocky or grassy bed surfaces. With a little new snow in the forecast for the next 24 hours avalanche danger may rise slightly as this new snow comes in and starts to add up a little by tomorrow. But in general this forecast is for a small amount of snows and things should not change much during this event. Enjoy your day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-13

Thu, 13 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 500 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We have seen 24mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit which is nearly one inch. At average snow densities that should have delivered nearly 24cm of new snow but we actually only received around 11cm of new snow. This shows us that the snow at the tram summit elevations and below are quite dense. This also is an indicator that at elevations above the tram summit we probably got quite a bit more snow as the temperatures cooled at elevations. During the last 24 hour event temperatures also rose by over 3c degrees. Showing us a little bit of an upside down trend in densities. Winds during the last 24 hours were also quite strong out of the SSE ranging from 15-50mph. This has the ability to create some heavy windloading on certain slopes. Snow stability analysis from the last week around the region show us we still have some light loose snow deeper down in the snowpack with quite a bit of heavy dense snow now on top of it. We also have multiple weak layers due to early season faceting in places. Today we will see continued light precip and warming throughout the morning hours. We have all the necessary ingredients for an avalanche. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable especially on windloaded aspects. Tonight into tomorrow danger levels will start to slowly decrease due to cooling. With very little warming today and little to no precip we do not have a heavy trigger being added to the snowpack so as the precip drys out and the afternoon cooling starts natural avalanches will become less likely. If your heading into the backcountry be aware that YOU are the trigger. We have some instability in the snowpack and skier triggered avalanches are possible and this possibility will remain even after the precip dries out and the cooling begins. Yesterday skier triggered avalanches were reported throughout the region. Although this is not a backcountry forecast we want to give you an idea of the current dangers present in the snowpack. Please make your own assessments. Dig a snowpit to have a better idea of the stability for yourself. Choose your lines carefully. Avoid windloaded slopes, convex slopes, terrain traps, and unanchored slopes. Remember to always wear your avalanche transceiver. Carry your avalanche probe and shovel. And ALWAYS ride with a partner who has the same and is well trained in avalanche rescue. Be safe out there and enjoy your day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-14

Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. We received roughly 6mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours. Temperatures have cooled slightly since yesterday at noon. The overall snowpack has settled slightly in the last 24 hours showing no new snow accumulation overall even though there was a little new snow. Winds picked up around midnight blowing 15-25mph with gusts to nearly 40 mph. Look to see some windloading on leeward slopes. The new snow is not as much a problem for avalanches at this time as is the multiple weak layers still present in our snowpack. We still have some areas with layers of facets in place. We still have some hollow weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. These weak layers are becoming harder to trigger but still exist and are worthy of note. From Wednesday into Thursday we saw some small natural avalanche activity in the urban paths but many areas still have the weak layer that failed here. Conditions are very spatially variable right now with the 50 mph winds we saw two days ago during out last period of heavy precip. Sanger levels will not change over the next 24 hours with the presence of weak layers deeper down in the snowpack and the addition of some new snow. Natural avalanches are unlikely in the urban enviroment. If you venture into the backcountry remember human triggered avalanches may still be possible in places. The weak layers may becoming harder to skier trigger but snowmobilers beware. With the additional weight of your machine and the deep track penetration you have avalanche danger is a little higher for you.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-15

Sat, 15 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG. RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 200 FEET LOWERING TO TO THE SURFACE. LOWS 25 TO 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received just over an inch (.26mm) of precipitation in the last 24 hours at the Mt Roberts Tram summit during which time we saw about 8" of new snow (20cm). This is showing quite a dense snowfall event. During this same time winds blew from 20-50mph out of the SSE and temperatures rose by about 2c degrees. This is quite a heavy dense snowfall event driven by high winds with a slight upside down trend. Look to see slabs on Leeward slopes. These slabs are coming to rest on a snowpack that still has some heavy dense surface layers overlaying the early season soft cold snow. This creates a weakness in the snowpack. We also have some layers of facets still in place from the early season cold that need to be taken into consideration. We have all the ingredients for an avalanche if you apply a heavy enough trigger. Avalanche danger is Considerable at this time and falling slightly over tonight into tomorrow as we see some gentle cooling and a reduction in precip rates. Natural avalanches possible in areas but the trigger is decreasing with less precip and cooling temps. Remember for human triggered avalanches you are the trigger so the possibility of human triggered slides is always greater than for naturals. Potentially destructive avalanches are still not likely to come near or reach developed areas. We just dont have enough snowpack on the mountain yet to trigger an event of this nature. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded areas near summit and ridgeline. Be aware of convex rolls, steep unsupported slopes, and terrain traps. Choose your routes carefully.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-16

Sun, 16 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS 18 TO 26. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 11 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Avalanche Danger Remains Considerable today in places. Natural Avalanches are not very likely due to a lack of significant trigger... The temps are cooling and the precip is slowing. Yet we will continue to see windloading which could tip the balance for small natural avalanches in places. Should these natural avalanches occur we do not expect them to be large enough to affect any of our urban areas. Human Triggered avalanches remain possible. We have a weak snowpack structure in place currently. We started the season with low volumes of dry light snow. This created a somewhat hollow base. The temperatures remained cold during the early season and it was quite dry. This created layers of facets in the snowpack in places. This layering is quite spatially variable and is worse in some places more so than others. The winds stripped it off in some areas... This week since monday we have received 50cm of new snow after taking into consideration the settlement. Thats 20" of new snow. Most of this snow was quite heavy and wet. Recognize it came to rest on a weak snowpack structure with multiple weak layers. We now have a pretty good brick sitting on a stack of empty pop cans... with enough force we are seeing the stack fail. Yesterday in the upper mountain region we were able to cause skier triggers of one nature. It often took a second or third skier down the slope to break it free but we were causing skier triggered avalanches in places. On the lower mountain areas we saw avalanches of a different nature that were running on the wetter snow from the warm barely freezing snowfall event this week. Be aware that although we have not seen avalanches of great size avalanches are occuring. If you placed yourself on the wrong slope it could be a very bad day. Avoid steep unsupported convex rolls, unanchored slopes, leeward slopes, terrain traps, and skiing above cliffs in the alpine areas. Remember to use caution in your route finding. Only place one skier on the slope at a time, skiing from safe spots to safe spots to limit your exposure. Remember the second skier may be enough to trigger the slope. Always ski with a partner. Always carry an avalanche transceiver, probe and shovel. Know your escape routes. Have a rescue plan and PRACTICE>.. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-17

Mon, 17 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS 24 TO 29 THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS IN THE VALLEY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 18. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS IN THE VALLEY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE EVENING. TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. With Cooling temperatures and no precipitation in the forecast the Avalanche Danger is LOW in the urban enviroment. Temperatures have fallen by 7C over the last 2 days. Where winds were blowing yesterday from 10-30mph out of the SSE they have now switched around to the NE and are expected to increase throughout the day in the downtown area along the channel. Wind loading in the urban paths may become an issue. This will be something to keep in eye on over the next few days. We have some underlying conditions in the snowpack that are still generating some concern even through the surface layers are relatively supportive at this time. We will want to really watch for deeper instabilities over time as new load is added. If you are in the backcountry remember there are still areas of weakness in the snowpack that may be triggered in key places. Choose your terrain wisely and please remember this is now a backcountry avalanche forecast. Learn how to dig snowpits and make your own assessments. This is critical to the decision making process.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-18

Tue, 18 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 19 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. With no precipitation in the last 36 hours and cool temps in place avalanche danger is LOW at this time. The most recent snow event from last weekend came in with a cooling temperature trend in small amounts. This came to rest on a fairly dense base of snow that is supporting it at the present time. All of this dense snow still lies on a a hollow base that has some faceted layering in places... but with no snow in the forecast today the avalanche danger will remain low. This deep weak layer remains a bit spooky but it would take a tremendous trigger in just the right spot to innitiate an avalanche to this depth now. It will still be something to watch over time as we get new storms. Yesterday we saw quite a bit of windloading in the urban starting zones. These do have the ability to trigger natural avalanches especially later today into tomorrow as the windloading picks up again. We would expect any of these slides that may occur to be small at this time and not affect the urban areas. This windloading and slab will add to the equasion as we move forward and may become a concern during the next snow cycle. Be safe in the backcounrty and choose your routes carefully. Remember there may still be some isolated areas of weakness.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-19

Wed, 19 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 12 IN THE VALLEY RANGING TO AROUND 28 DOWNTOWN. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS AROUND 15...EXCEPT AROUND 4 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 25 BELOW. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES. Downtown area temperatures have warmed up by 2c degrees in the last 24 hours. These temps should fall again over the next 24 hours. Winds yesterday were relatively calm minimizing the windloading in the Urban Starting zones. Small windloaded pockets were observed yesterday. Today winds at the tram are gusting above 50 already this am. We will once again see some tremendous windloading in the urban starting zones. This may lead to natural avalanches in the urban enviroment. Avalanche Danger today is CONSIDERABLE. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. Any avalanches that should begin are expected to be small to moderate in size as the lower layers of snow have consolidated quite a bit over the last several days. We also saw some natural avalanche activity in the Berhands Paths last Tuesday and Wednesday which should have reduced the the amounts possible for avalanches over the next few days should they occur. Today might be a good day to avoid the Flume Trail as the Chop Gulley Avalanche Path above it will see some good windloading and it is long enough that a powder avalanche may pose a threat in that region. Today is also a good day not to walk the trails and dead end road spurs above the Berhands Avenue Area. Please aviod parking along Thane Road through the avalanche path areas. Please also do not walk or jog along Thane Road through this same region. The avalanche snow debris may not be an issue with these expected smaller avalanches, yet the powder blast can travel quite fast. Fast enough to knock down trees and throw debris in front of it as it travels. Be aware in the backcountry there will be windloading in isolated pockets that should be avoided. Remember this is not a complete backcountry forecast. Any place you choose to ride you should take it upon yourself to dig a snow profile to analyze the layering and make your own determination as to if it is safe or not and which route you should take.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-20

Thu, 20 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS... TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS 19 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY. LOWS AROUND 10...EXCEPT AROUND 1 BELOW ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH... EXCEPT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. HIGHS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. Temperatures have cooled off by about 5C degrees in the last 48 hours. Winds that picked up to 40-50mph out of the NE by yesterday morning at 2am were causing natural avalanches in the region before 9am. These NNE winds out of the interior passes create perfect loading conditions for our urban avalanche paths. This wind deposits snow quite rapidly. One example of that is the Mt Roberts Snow Depth Sensor. From 9am to 4pm yesterday we saw nearly a foot of wind blown snow deposit there. At around 820am yesterday morning my phone started ringing with reports of an avalanche down Chop Gulley the large avalanche path that comes off Mt Juneau and crosses the Flume Trail. This tells you that you have a weak layer present and this windloading is enough to kick off a natural avalanche cycle. By the time I had time to make a full investigation at 9am, not only had the Chop Gulley avalanche path failed. But so had the Berhands Avenue Avalanche Path. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT ONLY A TINY PIECE OF THESE PATHS FAILED AND THERE IS STILL 10 TIMES THE MASS STILL UP ON THE SLOPE THAT IS CONTINUING TO LOAD AND FEEL THIS WINDLOADING STRESS. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE TODAY. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable. Any avalanches that should begin are expected to be small to moderate in size as the lower layers of snow have consolidated quite a bit over the last several days. We also saw some natural avalanche activity in the Berhands Paths last Tuesday and Wednesday which should have reduced the the amounts possible for avalanches over the next few days should they occur. Yesterdays small avalanches also cleared out a small amount of snow and cleaned the lower rock faces in Chop Gulley reducing the amount of loose snow available for entrainment. That is not to say these areas are not a concern. Remember only about 10% or less of these slope faces pulled out. Today is a good day to avoid the Flume Trail as the Chop Gulley Avalanche Path above it will see some good windloading and it is long enough that a powder avalanche may pose a threat in that region. Today is also a good day not to walk the trails and dead end road spurs above the Berhands Avenue Area. Please aviod parking along Thane Road through the avalanche path areas. Please also do not walk or jog along Thane Road through this same region. The avalanche snow debris may not be an issue with these expected midsized powder avalanches, yet the powder blast can travel quite fast. Fast enough to knock down trees and carry debris with is as it travels. Be aware in the backcountry there will be windloading in isolated pockets that should be avoided. Remember this is not a complete backcountry forecast. Any place you choose to ride you should take it upon yourself to dig a snow profile to analyze the layering and make your own determination as to if it is safe or not and which route you should take.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-21

Fri, 21 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS... TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 7 TO 15...EXCEPT AROUND ZERO IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 17 TO 23. NORTHEAST WIND 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. Temperatures continue to fall around the region. Dropping around 7C in the last 48 hours. Current temps are 3f at Eaglecrest and 7c at the Mt Roberts Tram. Downtown is hovering around 12f. 10f at Salmon Creek. 7f at the Airport and -1f in the Mendenhall Valley. Wind speeds remain 30-40mph at the Tram and Eaglecrest Summits. This is still pretty prime windloading speed. We saw some natural avalanches due to windloading two days ago along the urban paths. We are continuing to see windloading in those areas today. As this prolonged wind event continues the amount of loose snow available for transport is slowly deminishing. Natural avalanches are still possible but the danger may be ever so slightly reduced today in the urban paths where there is no additional trigger. On Douglas Island for Skiers and Snowmobilers where you are the trigger to the avalanche danger is still CONSIDERABLE. Human Triggered avalanches are still likely in isolated places. We have seen some activity earlier in the week giving us a hint that the danger may be isolated to the upper surface levels of the snowpack which can reduce the avalanche size. We also saw some natural activity in the urban paths last week during the bigger snowfall events removing some of those weak layers in places. The slides two mornings ago were only a small part of the slopes that pose a threat and there is still a great deal of area that could potentially release if the stress strain balance is tipped by this continued windloading. Today is a good day to avoid The Flume Trail. Today is also a good day not to walk the trails and dead end road spurs above the Berhands Avenue Area. Please aviod parking along Thane Road through the avalanche path areas. Please also do not walk or jog along Thane Road through this same region. The avalanche snow debris may not be an issue with these expected midsized powder avalanches, yet the powder blast can travel quite fast. Fast enough to knock down trees and carry debris with is as it travels. Be aware in the backcountry there will be windloading in isolated pockets that should be avoided. Remember this is not a complete backcountry forecast. Any place you choose to ride you should take it upon yourself to dig a snow profile to analyze the layering and make your own determination as to if it is safe or not and which route you should take.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-22

Sat, 22 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. VERY WINDY. HIGHS 16 TO 22...EXCEPT AROUND 10 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 MPH FOR DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS. WIND CHILL TO 15 BELOW IN THE MORNING NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. TONIGHT...CLEAR. VERY WINDY. LOWS 12 TO 20...EXCEPT AROUND 7 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 MPH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 21. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. With continued high winds over the last several days, most of the snow has been stripped out of the Urban avalanche paths. Although pockets of snow remain we now have large areas stripped to the ground. This discontinuous snowpack may have small areas of weakness but they are not large enough to pose a concern. The areas that are still holding snow have had quite a bit of wind deposited snow in them in some areas. This snow is quite hard in places. The exception to the runle here may be Chop Gulley. The avalanche path that comes down across the Flume Trail. There is still a little more mass in this area. Please avoid use of the flume trail. If you are in the backcountry today pay special attention to the spatial variability and note how one spot may be completely different from the next spot just 10 feet away due to wind affect. This will play a large role in our snow stability during the next several snowfall events.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-23

Sun, 23 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 15 TO 21. NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 20...EXCEPT AROUND 3 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DOWNTOWN. LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. With continued high winds over the last several days, most of the snow has been stripped out of the Urban avalanche paths. Although pockets of snow remain we now have large areas stripped to the ground. This discontinuous snowpack may have small areas of weakness but they are not large enough to pose a concern. The areas that are still holding snow have had quite a bit of wind deposited snow in them in some areas. This snow is quite hard in places. The exception to the rule here may be Chop Gulley. The avalanche path that comes down across the Flume Trail. There is still a little more mass in this area. Please avoid use of the flume trail. If you are in the backcountry today pay special attention to the spatial variability and note how one spot may be completely different from the next spot just 10 feet away due to wind affect. This will play a large role in our snow stability during the next several snowfall events.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-24

Mon, 24 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 15 TO 23. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. ELSEWHERE EAST WIND TO 10 MPH. CHRISTMAS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. Temperatures have warmed up by 5c degrees over the last 48 hours in the region. Winds have died off in the last 24 hours are are currently under 20mph at all stations. With very high winds over the last 5+ days, most of the snow has been stripped out of the Urban avalanche paths. Although pockets of snow remain we now have large areas stripped to the ground. This discontinuous snowpack may have small areas of weakness but they are not large enough to pose a concern. The areas that are still holding snow have had quite a bit of wind deposited snow in them in some areas. This snow is quite hard in places. If you are in the backcountry today pay special attention to the spatial variability and note how one spot may be completely different from the next spot just 10 feet away due to wind affect. This will play a large role in our snow stability during the next several snowfall events.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-25

Tue, 25 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 18 TO 28. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. LIGHT WINDS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 12 TO 20...EXCEPT AROUND 15 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. LIGHT WINDS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 25 TO 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. Winds are low to moderate with not much in the 30's With very high winds over the last 5+ days, most of the snow has been stripped out of the Urban avalanche paths. Although pockets of snow remain we now have large areas stripped to the ground. This discontinuous snowpack may have small areas of weakness but they are not large enough to pose a concern. The areas that are still holding snow have had quite a bit of wind deposited snow in them in some areas. This snow is quite hard in places. If you are in the backcountry today pay special attention to the spatial variability and note how one spot may be completely different from the next spot just 10 feet away due to wind affect. This will play a large role in our snow stability during the next several snowfall events.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-26

Wed, 26 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 21 TO 27. LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS 17 TO 25 IN THE EVENING RISING OVERNIGHT. COLDER IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EVENING. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 10 MPH. Winds have been mostly calm over the last 24 hours with averages between 5-10mph. Mt Roberts saw some gusting to nearly 20 mph. This is following a week of clear cool temps where we had quite high winds over an extended period of time. With very high winds over the last 5+ days, most of the snow has been stripped out of the Urban avalanche paths. Although pockets of snow remain we now have large areas stripped to the ground. This discontinuous snowpack may have small areas of weakness but they are not large enough to pose a concern. The areas that are still holding snow have had quite a bit of wind deposited snow in them in some areas. This snow is quite hard in places. If you are in the backcountry today pay special attention to the spatial variability and note how one spot may be completely different from the next spot just 10 feet away due to wind affect. This will play a large role in our snow stability during the next several snowfall events.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-27

Thu, 27 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY... TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS 24 TO 34. EAST WIND 5 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. LOWS 23 TO 33 IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY AND RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EAST WIND 5 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have seen quite a bit of wind over the last week with no new snow accumulations. Large areas have been stripped of snow in the urban enviroment. Dangers are low at this time. Look to see not only stripped areas, but thin snowpack in large open rocky areas near summit and ridgeline. Also look to see some large windloaded pockets on lee slopes. Spatial variability is quite high at this time. As we see this snow fall event over the next day, it will be coming to rest on a variety of conditions. Some of them more stable than others. As temperatures rise over the next 24 hours and we receive this new snow avalanche danger will increase. The danger level will be determined by how much light dry snow we see before the warming, how much warming we see, and how much overall new snow is accumulated. The windloading will also play a role in this as the danger levels increase. Today is pretty safe but with conditions changing throughout the day you will want to reasses danger levels later in the day on your own. Tomorrow we will have to start making much better assessments on snowpack conditions, spatial variability, and where the safe spots may be. Enjoy the new snow. Hope the warming is slow and limited. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-28

Fri, 28 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON . SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING LATE. SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have warmed up several degrees over the last 36 hours. But actually only a few degrees since the snowfall started. This morning you can feel the difference to the snow. Yesterdays snow was light and fluffy with not much to hold it together. Todays snow has a higher density and higher water content. It will build easier into slabs with enough new snow and wind. We saw 10mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Weather Station. This left us about 8cm of new snow. Eaglecrest shows slightly less after settlement. This is not a tremendous amount of new snow and yet the bond between it and the lower layers is in question. Look to see how it is sticking to the lower wind blown layer if your out and about... and remember... town is much different than mountain top. Today will turn to rain in the valleys. We will see increased temps in the mountains over the next 48 hours as well. This has the potential to build weak conditions with enough new snow added but forecast levels are for low water volumes and snow amounts. Winds have been from 10-25 on Mt Roberts while they have been stronger on Douglas with Eaglecrest showing 20-35 mph winds out of the SSE. This combination of cold snow, warming, more warm snow, Continued warming and driven by winds into slabs on the lee slopes of the mountains has the potentail to build avalanches. Look for signs of increasing instability on W-N faces. Also be aware of cross loading which plays a huge role in our Juneau mountain enviroment with strong channel winds at times. Avalanche Danger is Moderate today. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Be aware of your terrain selection and limit your exposure to avalanche prone slopes. Slides are not expected to be large in nature yet if your near a terrain trap, a cliff band, or a wall of trees, it wont matter how big the slide is.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-29

Sat, 29 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Spatial Variability remains high. We saw more snow yesterday in town and along the channel than at the Ski Area on Douglas. This new snow is coming to rest on a snowpack that has been fairly thin and wind blasted for weeks. Some places are stripped down to shallow snowpacks. They may be seeing layers of faceting in places. Some places the snow may have drifted in in greater quantities. This has a little more insulating quality and the crystal shapes may be different in these areas. Also we still have many weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are not very supportive although they are still holding weight at this time. We received 21cm(8") of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 24 hours. Showing a total of only about 24cm in a 48 hour period. Precip totals during this time were 20mm of precip in the last 24 hours and a total of 32mm overall. This is fairly heavy dense snow. We started the cycle with fair winds ranging from 10-35 with the highest winds coming from Eaglecrest on Douglas. This mornings winds are ranging from 10-25 and have slowed slightly. Direction remains out of the SE for the most part. Temperatures have warmed slightly since the beginning of this snowfall event and are predicted to continue to rise slowly over the next 48 hours. This is bringing us up close to the point of freezing which is often a critical trigger to go into natural avalanche cycles. Any activity we see today is not predicted to be large. As we go through the next 24 hours danger levels will increase. Precip Rates will increase, Temperatures will increase, and this questionably strong snowpack will feel the weight of quite a bit of loading during the day tomorrow into the following day. There are pockets of instability today. As we go through today into tomorrow expect those pockets to grow in size as will the avalanches they can produce. Choose your routes carefully today. Enjoy the new snow but be cautious of terrain traps. Exposed terrain, and convex unsupported slopes. HAVE A GREAT DAY. We definitely are building conditions that could lead to an avalanche. Yesterday we did not see enough new snow to really make things sensative. Today the possibility of man made avalanches is increasing. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-30

Sun, 30 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received 42mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 3 days. This has only left us with 22cm of new snow. That is almost double the normal snow density. The storm started with a little dry light snow then quickly turned into a warm wet near freezing condition. We received 14mm of this precip in the last 24 hours with essentially no net gain in the snowfall accumulation at tram summit elevations. Eaglecrest stayed slightly cooler and is snowing about 5cm of new snow during this same period. Temperatures are predicted to stay this warm for the next 24+ hours. We are also expected to see as much as 1.03" of precip in the next 24 hours. This is the largest weight load we have placed on the snowpack in quite some time. At lower elevations where this is coming in as all rain it will eat at the bonds in the snowpack and we may see small natural avalanches over time. At upper elevations where this is still coming in as some snow it is still adding tremendous stress to the snowpack that has several weak layers already in place. It should be interesting to see how this new load affects these weak layers. Winds are also out of the SE at 20-35mph which could add to the instability at upper elevations on lee slopes. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today into tomorrow with these warm temps and heavy precip rates. Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable. Be Careful out there. Avoid walking along the Flume Trail. Avoid parking along Thane Road at snowslide creek.

Avalanche Advisory for 2012-12-31

Mon, 31 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. NEW YEARS DAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures for the last 3 days have been quite warm. Temps peaked at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit at +1c but remained there for over 24 hours. Winds have been primarily out of the SE ranging from 15-45mph. They shifted at Eaglecrest this morning 4am to the West. We saw about 1" of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit weather station in the last 24 hours. During that time we had a net loss of about 5cm of snow. Showing us that most of the precip at upper mountain elevations came in as rain. We may have had a little snow at the highest points in our local mountains. The temperature at the Eaglcrest summit stayed below freezing so we can assume Douglas saw more of this precip in the form of snow which can cause its own unique set of problems. Rain and snow both have the same affect in adding weight to the snowpack currently in place. Rain does it while eroding the bonds that make the snowpack structure strong. The new snow simply adds stress to the point of failure if it persists long enough. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Natural avalanches are unlikely do to the decrease in precipitation today. With not much new load added to the snowpack after yesterdays 1" we assume the snowpack can handle the load today. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Temps are still quite warm. At lower elevations the snowpack is still quite rotten. At upper elevations you may find pockets of new snow that are windloaded and these too may be weak with the presence of a human trigger. Use caution out there today. Be aware that weakness in the snowpack exists and choose your terrian and routes wisely.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-01

Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES LATE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH LATE. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 900 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. This mornings temperatures at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit at the warmest we have seen in a while. While tram summit temps rose by nearly 2c degrees overnight, Eaglecrest and Douglas saw the opposite with temps falling slightly by 1c degree. We have received almost no measurable precipitation in the last 24 hours at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station. The snowpack has settled quite a bit over the last 24 hours as well. This settlement can help add to the strength of the snowpack over time. Especially as the temps cool back off again later in the week. While the Mt Roberts Tram Wx Site had snow settlement of about 10cm(4"), the Eaglecrest mid mountain site saw only about half that at 5cm due to the cooler temps in place on Douglas Island. Winds have ranged from 10-25 at the Tram summit and from 20-45 at the top of Eaglecrest. But do not have a lot of light dry snow available for transport at the current time. Avalanche danger is Moderate this morning. With not much precip in the forecast for early today, Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Yet while temps remain above freezing at lower elevations some natural activity may be possible there as the wet snow may clean itself off of the steep rocky pitches. Human triggered avalanches possible especially at very low elevations on steep unsupported convex slopes where this wet snow may want to clean itself off... or at very upper elevations if you can find the deeper pockets of windslab deposited over the last few days. As we head into this evening temps are to remain quite warm and we may see as much as 1" of precip overnight in a 12-15 hour period. Avalanche danger will rise during this event.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-02

Wed, 02 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PATCHY FOG AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS NEAR JUNEAU WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF TAKU INLET. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Interestingly temperatures split yesterday. While Eaglecrest cooled slightly from -1c to -3c ending up at -2c, The Mt Roberts Tram weather station did much the opposite... Starting at at 0c went up most of the day actually touching -5c for a while and ending up at just below 0c. So while the lower elevation snowpack in the Eaglecrest Region may have gained strength the same elevation along the channel saw continued thaw and perhaps lost a little strength during its warm spell. After things cool off this lower mountain snowpack along the channel will also start to add strength. From around 4pm yesterday (when temps had already stabilized at the lower temperatures at and below freezing) we started to receive quite heavy precip for a period of over 13 hours. The Mt Roberts Tram Summit weather station shows roughly 17mm(.669") of precip during that time. This translated into roughly 15cm(5.9") of new snow also at the tram. The Eaglecrest UAS site gauge went down around 4pm yesterday so we dont know how much new they saw overnight but we can assume it was of equal or greater value due to the cooler temperatures in place. Winds yesterday blew fairly strong out of the SSE with Eaglecrest showing spikes over 60mph while the tram was a little less windy only reaching the 50mph mark. During this wind event early in the day you could see active wind transport. As the snow picked up after dark you should expect to see moderate to heavy wind transport in the starting zones. Look to see slabs having built on W-N faces while adding to the load with new snows as well. We could have quite heavy pockets of drifting and windslab near summit and ridgeline at upper elevations. Todays forecast calls for precip rates to decrease and temps to fall slightly over the next 24 hours while winds out of the east are expected to continue from 10-20mph. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches remain possible with some new precip and active windloading. Although possible they are not highly likely and we do not expect to see widespread natural activity. As today dries out and we give things more time to settle danger levels for natural avalanches will start to fall. Human triggered avalanches are probable. With active windloading in the start zones all day yesterday and increased loading both with wind and new snow overnight, expect to see areas of instability today. Choose your routes wisely and limit your exposure to terrain traps, cliffs, and steep convex slopes. Happy New year and enjoy a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-03

Thu, 03 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received roughly 6" of snow out of 17mm of precipitation night before last. Yesterday was mostly dry and calm. Most of this new snow was seen only at upper mountain elevations. The lower mountain stayed mostly in rain. Temperatures cooled yesterday. Even more so at valley elevations than at mountain top. This should have helped to lock the wet snow back up down low holding it in place. At upper mountain elevations the temps were very close to freezing which should have helped things to settle and bond rapidly. If you look carefully you may be able to find a few tender pockets of snow at upper elevations in wind loaded pockets but for the most part avalanche danger is LOW. With no significant precip in the forecast and cool temps in place avalanche danger will remain low. As we go into tonight and tomorrow we are expected to see a little new snow. Volumes should remain low keeping the danger levels to low. Have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-04

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOWS 27 TO 33. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Avalanche Danger was low yesterday. Temperatures remained cool throughout the day and night as well. Overnight into this morning we received 2-3" of new snow. Winds were light to moderate ranging from 10-20mph with Eaglecrest showing slightly higher numbers. The forecast for today is relatively mild temps with light winds and no significant new snow deposits. Keeping this in mind the avalanche danger for today is LOW and will not change appreciably. Tomorrow we expect to see some additional snow as a new system comes through look to see avalanche danger rise slightly during that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-05

Sat, 05 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 2-3" of snow night before last. Yesterday temperatures slowly rose all day and came right to the point of freezing at the Eaglecrest Summit. Mt Roberts Saw additional warming at the lower elevations Tram weather station coming up to 3c. This gives the snowpack the ability to settle and bond rapidly. Temperatures have dropped slightly since that time and are below freezing now at both stations. Winds stayed under 20mph at all locations for the last 48 hours with just a few gusts higher. We probably didnt see to much additional wind loading due to this activity. With cool temperatures in place and not much additional precipitation in the forecast avalanche danger is LOW at this time and forecast to stay that way unless we see larger snow volumes than were predicted. Be safe out there and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-06

Sun, 06 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN...EXCEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN MENDENHALL VALLEY. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE. MONDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have been fairly moderate the last two days. Tram summit temperatures were above freezing for nearly 24 hours and have been back below freezing for about 10 hours now. Eaglecrest summit temps stayed cooler at -1C to -2C. This helps allow the snowpack to settle and bond. The closer temps are to freezing the more rapidly things tend to stabilize. Winds have also been low to moderate over the last few days with the tram showing winds barely reaching 20 at times as where Eaglecrest saw breif periods of 20+ winds. But most of the time they hovered in the 5-15 range. Winds are expected to remain light today as well. We have not received any precip in the last 48 hours. Snowpack settlement looks good. Avalanche danger is LOW at this time. As we go into tonight and tomorrow expect to see precipitation. As this new front starts to stack up new snow look to see danger levels increase. Be safe out there and enjoy a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-07

Mon, 07 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 30. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures fell ever so slightly overnight and are to remain cool today. At the time of this forecast we had received about 3" of new snow at the Eaglecrest UAS Weather Station. The Mt Roberts Weather Station is down so we have no current reading from along the channel at elevation. Winds have been calm along the channel. Eaglecrest has seen some higher winds with averages from 10-20mph. The forecast for today calls for mild winds and additional snow. We may see upwards of 6" by tomorrow as this front continues. Avalanche danger is LOW to Moderate. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in windloaded areas especially as this frontal system continues. The likelyhood of human triggered avalanches at the time of this forecast is not very good yet with continued precip this likelyhood is growing. If your out in the hills today be sure to watch as the snow piles up and make your own assesments. Low is the current rating. Heading towards Moderate if the weather forecast holds. Should we receive a great deal more snow tan in the forecast danger levels may rise additionally.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-08

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 21 TO 27. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 24 TO 30. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Precip volumes have remained low for the last few days. We have received roughly 18cm(about 7" after taking settlement into consideration) of new snow over the last 48 hours. This snow came in at near freezing temperatures which tends to help with rapid settlement and bonding. Temperatures have also fallen very slightly during that time. Winds have been light to moderate from 10-20 with gusting up to 25mph out of our traditional SSE. Todays forecast calls for light snow showers during the day drying out into the evening and overnight during a cooling trend. This should allow for continued settlement and improving snow conditions over the next 24 hours. With 7+" of new snow and light wind loading over the last 48 hours avalanche danger is MODERATE today and slowly falling into tomorrow. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated areas. Watch for windloaded slopes near summit and ridgeline. Be aware of steep convex rolls on unsupported slopes.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-09

Wed, 09 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 14 TO 22. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 29. EAST WIND 10 MPH. Eaglecrest and Sheep Mountain Temperatures fell by 3 and 6c degrees respectively over the last 12 hours... While interestingly the Mt Roberts tram weather station gauges showed a 2degree drop with a 2 degree rise to stay the same... Winds have been under 10mph for the last 12 hours but were 20-30 for the 24 hours previous to that which created some windloading in starting zones. Where winds had been out of the south during the higher winds they are now out of the North. There has been no measurable precip in the last 15+ hours and we saw 14mm in the previous 48 hours. After settlement this left us with only about 10cm of new snow. If you look about 60 hours its about 7cm additional for a total of nearly 17cm. This new snow came in with some light to moderate windloading. Expect to see some small pockets of windslab near summit and ridgeline that are holding a little more snow. These pockets may be sensative and have the ability to be skier triggered in places. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today. With no snow in the forecast and light winds the danger level is decreasing throughout the day and we expect it may be LOW by tomorrow. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in those isolated pockets. Today with cool temps and light winds with no precip will give this new snow time to settle and bond and stability will continue to increase. Enjoy a beautiful day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-10

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 24 TO 30. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY DIMINISHING LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 20 TO 28. EAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have fallen by 3-4c degrees around the region in the last 48 hours. Winds have been mostly calm although Eaglecrest winds have picked up to 20mph in the last 7 hours. We have received no precip in the last 36 hours and only around 13cm of new snow in the last week. Avalanche danger is low at this time. With not much precip in the forecast and light winds avalanche danger will remain low for the next 24-36 hours. Expect to see danger levels increase with the new snow predicted for Friday evening into Saturday.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-11

Fri, 11 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW...BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW DIMINISHING LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 25 TO 31. EAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 1-2" of new snow in the last 24 hours while temperatures rose by several degrees. While Eaglecrest showed winds from 10-25mph at times winds at the tram and along the channel remained light to moderate with only some gusting up to the 20mph mark. The Forecast is not calling for much new snow today but it didnt call for any yesterday! ;) Look to see some small tender pockets of snow near summit and ridgeline in windloaded areas. Although there is very little chance of natural avalanches, human triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas. As we receive additional snow today and more tonight danger levels will rise slightly. While now those human triggered avalanches are only slightly possible as we receive more new snow they will become more probable.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-12

Sat, 12 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 5 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. LOWS 29 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have come up by 4c degrees in the last 48 hours during which time we have seen 13cm (about 5") of new snow. Eaglecrest has seen over 20cm (8")of new snow in the last 5 days. Winds have been fairly mild with Eaglecrest showing 10-15mph winds gusting over 25 for a period of about 12 hours yesterday. We have seen about 50cm of snow since our last serious warming front and snowpits are still showing some weakness on this old/new snow interface in places. But for the most part this deeper layer remains stable. Temperatures are on the rise over the next several days and may rise as much as 13f degrees at elevation over the next 36 hours. Precip rates remain small today but will pick up overnight. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE at this time but will continue to increase greatly over the next few days. Today they will increase slightly. Tomorrow again additionally... On Monday avalanche danger is predicted to be HIGH! Natural avalanches unlikely today unless we experience more snow or warming than predicted. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas today. Human triggered avalanches possible especially in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline. Human triggered avalanche potential is on the rise with this warming trend. Get out and enjoy today as tomorrow and Monday will be changing greatly.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-13

Sun, 13 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures continue to rise across our region and have come up by 5c degrees in the last 3 days. Winds have been mild along the channel ranging from 5-15mph. Douglas Island Winds have been stronger and yesterday ranged from 20-30mph at times. We picked up about 17mm of precip over the last 2 days which delivered only 12cm of new snow. (4+") Of interesting note here is that while we picked up a bit of precip yesterday at below freezing temperatures we actually lost snow. Things are settling rapidly and this moisture came in quite wet and warm. The warm air overiding the cool surface temps saturating the snowpacks surface with liquid. The forecast for today calls for freezing levels to climb to 1200 feet and around .25" of precip. This is not a tremendous amount of moisture or warming just yet but is the beginning of greater things to come. This will start to place additional stress on the snowpack at lower elevations especially. I would expect to see steep rocky areas below the freezing line start to clean themselves off from time to time today. Trees loosing snow down low could be enough to start small point release avalanches on super steep open slopes. Avalanche danger is Considerable at this time. Natural avalanches possible especially at lower elevations or on super steep rocky unsupported slopes. Human triggered avalanches probable. Windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline are questionable on convex unsupported slopes. This warming will add additional stress to theses isolated tender pockets of snow. Any activity that we see is not predicted to be very large just yet. As we go from tonight into tomorrow precipitation rates will increase and temperatures are forecast to stay quite warm. We could see as much as an additional 5 degrees of warming through the day tomorrow and into Tuesday. Avalanche Danger will continue to increase during this event. Here is a great snipit from the National Weather Service Forecaster's discussion this morning. "LONG TERM...THE STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE CONTINUED WARM AND WET CONDITIONS AS JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AIM A HOSEPIPE AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE GOOD TO BE A DUCK. A LARGE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS SUCH AS GFS AND NAM SHOWING QPFS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS..." I would avoid The Flume Trail for the next few days as there is a fair amount of snow in the lower rocky areas that may clean out. Also should any slides start on the upper portion of the mountain they could entrain quite a bit of snow and cause larger avalanches. Please do not park or walk along Thane Road over the next 3 days. I would assume at some point over the next 3 days we will see some avalanche activity here as well. At this time I would not expect to see large slides in this area. But as warming continues tomorrow with increased precipitation the size and liklihood of the potential avalanches will increase. Please also do not walk above the closed gates in the Behrands Neighborhood in the Avalanche Runout Zones. I assume at some point the steep sections on Mount Juneau will clean themselves off. Be safe out there and have a great day. Snowmobilers please use additional caution as with the combination of you and your machine digging a larger trench you have the ability to stress the snowpack at deeper weak layers of instability. Remember, Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, Shovel and a partner with the same... Dont go into the backcountry without them. Do you have a practiced rescue plan with your group? When is the last time you practiced with your gear??? Be safe and live to ride another day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-14

Mon, 14 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Tempeatures rose by 7c over the last 4 days and 4c degrees over the last 48 hours. Temps went above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Weather Station yesterday morning around 10am. Precip rates have been moderate over the last few days with 40mm (1.6") in the last 72 hours. 1" of which came in the last 48 hours and .66" of which came in the last 30 hours. You can see precipitation rates are slowly rising. Winds have been considerable over the last 24-48 hours blowing out of the SSE from 20-30mph. Yesterday on Douglas Island the winds picked up additionally blowing to 40 and gusting higher. This added to some windloading on NNW facing slopes only at the very upper elevations. During the last 48 hours at the UAS Site which is located in a valley that will hold the cool air a little longer we lost only a cm or two of snow. At the Mt Roberts Tram Weather station which is located along the channel we lost a little more snow, a total of 3" of snow over the last 48 hours. This is a good thing getting rid of some of the mass off our lower mountain avalanche runout zones and also allowing the upper mountain to settle dramatically. The word for the day is Warm and Wet. We have seen substantial warming in our region over the last few days. The warming slightly preceded the precipitation and the precipitation rates rose gradually which is a good thing. If we had seen more rapid warming with higher precip volumes we would have gone into a natural avalanche cycle more quickly. This warming accompanied by moderate precip rates has given the snowpack a little time to settle and develop drainage channels at lower elevations to help process the greater precipitation rates to come. This is not the case for the upper mountain just yet. We have been seeing freezing rains so there is still a need for drainage channels to establish. The NWS forecast calls for as much as 1.16" of rain in the next 24 hours and 1.75" over the next 30 hours. This is a substantial increase in precip rates. The temperatures are forecast to stay quite warm during this event with rain on snow all the way to our mountain top starting zones and beyond. Avalanche danger is HIGH. Natural and human triggered avalanches likely. I assume we will see the steep rocky sections of Mt Juneau and Mt Roberts releive themselves of snow. This has the potential to trigger deeper weak layers in the surrounding snowpack in places. Spatial variability is HIGH in the snowpack due to the high wind events we saw a few weeks ago. We have widespread areas of shallow snowpack that were still weak in places. I assume these will see full depth percolation rapidly an lower elevations and in areas with no anchors, on steep unsupported or convex slopes, they will releive themselves. Higher elevations will be taking more time and we may see some releases due to massive loading associated with these large volumes of precip. The trickier question remains in the pockets of deeper snowpack. Much of our deeper snowpack has been fairly stable. Should these areas develop drainage channels they may hang in there ok. But between now stress is being continually added. If these areas are under steep sections that releive themselves they too may be triggered or entrained (Incorporated and swept along its flow) due to the lack of freezing which creates poor bonds. This has the potential to develop fairly good sized avalanches which would be our current worst case scenario. This is especially a concern on our steeper longer avalanche paths such as Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail and Snowslide Creek above Thane Road. Please avoid spending time in avalanche zones today. Do not hike the Flume Trail. Do not park or walk along Thane Road. Minimize your danger by minimizing your time in avalanche terrain. Do not walk the trails above the Berhands neighborhood as well. I expect at some point over the next 24-36 hours we will see some natural avalanche activity.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-15

Tue, 15 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Well... Its raining... We received 65mm (2.56") of precipitation in the last 48 hours. 43mm (1.7") of which came in the last 24 hours. Temperatures peaked yesterday around noon at +3c at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and +1c at the top of Eaglecrest. Temperatures have fallen by 3c in the last 18 hours dropping back below freezing at around Midnight at Eaglecrest and at about 4am at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. Eaglecrest has seen nearly 20mm of precip since the temps fell below freezing while the Tram has only seen about 10mm of precip after reaching freezing again due to its lower elevation and channel affect. We are starting to pick up new snow at higher elevations since this cooling began. Winds have been strong from 20-40mph out of the SE. Eaglecrest has seen some gusting to almost 50 during this event. The high intensity precip rates has placed a lot of stress on the snowpack over the last few days. We have seen quite a bit of settlement and consolidation over the last few days. The lower mountain snowpack has developed drainage channels and is now processing the rain. The very highest areas in our forecast region may not have fully developed drain channels in the deeper parts of the snowpack but are very close to it. Avalanche Danger is Considerable. Natural Avalanches are possible. Human Triggered avalanches likely at upper elevations in windloaded pockets. As temperatures continue to cool and the precip rate decreases after the noon hour avalanche danger will continue to fall. This snowpack remains rotten at lower mountain elevations and we are picking up quite a bit of windloaded snow at higher elevations. Natural avalanches will remain possible until after tonights cooling into tomorrow with much less precip and cooler temperatures in place. Human Triggered avalanches will remain possible a little longer at extreme upper elevations and lower elevations. If we can sneak through this morning without any avalanches we will be back on our way to a stable snowpack. The level of danger is still a concern on our steeper longer avalanche paths such as Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail and Snowslide Creek above Thane Road. Please avoid spending time in avalanche zones today. Do not hike the Flume Trail. Do not park or walk along Thane Road. Minimize your danger by minimizing your time in avalanche terrain. Please do not walk the trails above the Berhands neighborhood located in the avalanche runout zones as well.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-16

Wed, 16 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN DEVELOPING. IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LATE. THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. Freezing levels touched nearly 6000' for a short period over the last several days which remained quite warm. We received 110mm (4.3") of rain over the last 4 days. The last 40mm (1.6") of which came after temperatures had fallen below freezing once again on the upper mountains. This warming trend accompanied by large volumes of rain settled the snowpack greatly. During this event the snowpack developed drainage channels through the layering to allow it to process the rain. Once the snowpack freezes again completely it will make the deeper layers quite stable. The precip we received during the end of the storm yesterday left quite a bit of new snow in our upper mountain regions during a short period of time. During this event we also had quite high winds ranging from 20-45mph. This created storm snow slabs on lee slopes to be aware of. Temperatures warmed again last night after 5pm to above the freezing point at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. This storm event deposited around 10" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and much higher amounts at upper elevations. Eaglecrest mid mountain gauge is showing a little less with 6-8" of new. With wind deposits there may be 2-3 times that much in slabs on leeward slopes. Winds were primarily out of the SSE so look to see new slabs having developed on W through N aspects. These slabs may be quite tender in places. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. As we to through this afternoon into tonight the precipitation is forecast to pick back up again. Temps should remain cool for the most part. We may see as much as an additional 10" of snow at upper mountain elevations before tomorrow morning. Avalanche danger will continue to rise during this event. Be careful if you head out into the backcountry. You will find mixed conditions. The better the skiing... the more likely you are to find pockets of instability! Remember to bring your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel. Develop a rescue plan and train with your riding partners. This is crucial to insure proper performance during a rescue event.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-17

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...LOCALLY WINDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN. MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 1500 FEET LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 39 FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have had a fairly significant storm over the last 48 hours. Temps have fluctuated a fair amount during that time. Temps rose by 2c degrees back to the point of freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. Temps are expected to rise midday today with diurnal warming up to about the 2500' level. We have received 95mm (Nearly 4") of precip in the last 48 We have received 1' of new snow up high in the last 24 hours and over 20" of new snow at upper elevations over the last 48hours. This is a lot of moisture for this depth of snow. Almost double the average snow density. Windloading remains a factor with high winds driving this snow and loading lee slopes on West through North faces. After the first foot of snow we saw wind drifts reaching nearly 3' we could expect to see double that in certain mountain starting zones. We are expected to see as much as an additional .6" of precip in the next 12 hours. This combined with midday warming and driving winds and loading may be the trigger for a natural avalanche cycle. Avalanche Danger is HIGH at this time. Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas. Natural and human triggered avalanches likely. If you head out into the mountains today use extreme caution and be very conservative on your route selections. Avoid windloaded slopes. Keep your slope angle down. Avoid steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes, terrain traps, and skiing above cliffs. Please do not hike The Flume Trail. Please do not park or walk along Thane Road. Please do not walk in the avalanche zones above the Berhands Neighborhood. Limit your exposure by limiting your time in avalanche terrain. As we go into tonight and tomorrow conditions should start to cool off and avalanche danger should start to fall slightly. This is a fair load and will take time to settle and bond. Time is your friend! Use extreme caution through todays warming. Be Safe and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-18

Fri, 18 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 20 TO 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Over the last few days we received a tremendous amount of precip. Yesterday we had warming to above freezing to mountain summits. This was enough to kick off a widespread natural avalanche cycle. Most every path in the urban enviroment avalanched during this event. This is a good thing stripping snow down in the starting zones and removing weak layers that had built up in the previous few days snows. Temperatures fell last night by as much as 8f degrees and are back well below freezing once again. This starts to lock the snowpack back up into a block of concrete overtime. Todays forecast calls for moderate diurnal warming that will not reach freezing level in our mountain areas. With very little snow in the forecast and light winds avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Enjoy a break from the heavy precip today and tomorrow. It looks like by Sunday we will start to see our next system develop which will come with warming once again.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-19

Sat, 19 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS 26 TO 32. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 MPH. The day before yesterday we had temperatures to abov freezing on our mountain summits. This has settled and consolidated the snow considerably. With no new snow in the last 24 hours and no snow significant precipitation in the forecast avalanche danger is low and will remain that way for the next 24 hours. As we start to pickup precip again tomorrow avalanche danger will begin to rise once again.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-20

Sun, 20 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. LOWS 29 TO 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Earlier in the week we received large volumes of rain to our local mountain summits elevations. Since that time the temperatures have fallen to below freezing for well over the last 48 hours. This has turned our giant slurpee we had back into a brick of ice. Snow conditions are quite stable at this time. We received a very small amount of new snow following the cooling which placed a possible weak layer on the snowpack surface after two days of cold weather and light winds. This combination may have started some faceting at the snowpack surface. During today and overnight into tomorrow we will start to see new precipitation entering the area. This will start out as snow and then turn to rain. We may even see this turn to rain in our upper mountain regions overnight tonight. This will but a little loose snow in the mountains and with warming we may see it releive the stress of gravity on the steep slopes with super small avalanches. It depends on how much new snow we see before the rains begin. Avalanche danger will increase some in the next 24 hours yet no significant activity is expected.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-21

Mon, 21 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. We received nearly an inch of rain overnight. But temperatures were very warm. This only left about one inch of new snow at Mt Roberts Tram Summit elevations. The Eaglecrest UAS site which is at a little higher elevation is showing about 4". The Mt Juneau Station is along the channel at our highest elevation locally and is only showing a few inches of snow as well. Lower elevation snowpacks are above freezing and may have the ability to move on SUPER steep slopes or if human triggered. Upper elevations have just a little new snow that may or may not be bonding well to the old snow surface. At our uppermost elevations you may see some small windloaded pockets that may be able to be skier triggered. Winds ranged from 15-40 during this event and may have developed some windslabs up high on leewasrd slopes facing W to N. Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. With not much precip in the forecast natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated pockets near summit and ridgeline and at lower elevations.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-22

Tue, 22 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 32. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Night before last we received an inch of precipitation that only left very small amounts of new snow in our mountain regions. This small amount of snow came in very wet and will tend to bond fairly well. There was windloading during the event and at uppermost elevations you may find very small pockets of windslab. Since that time temperatures have continued to rise and are now above freezing in all our mountain starting zones. Overall we have a fairly stable snowpack. Yet it is quite water saturated and nearly isothermal. Be aware that on super steep unsupported slopes we may have some slight instabilities as this slurpee like snow that is currently at the point of freezing does not have much of that below freezing glue holding it together. With almost no precip in the forecast and a cooling temperature trend to start over the next 24 hours I will keep avalanche danger at moderate for small avalanches. Natural avalanches are unlikely and yet slightly possible on very steep slopes with no anchors and no support from below. This snow may move like sands through the hourglass as small lower mountain sections release themselves. Human Triggered avalanches are unlikely as well. Yet once again on steep slopes that are unsupported and unanchored you may have the ability to get a little snow to move. Be aware of terrain traps. No not expose yourself accross the tops of cliffs on steep convex slopes. As the cooling begins stability will improve.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-23

Wed, 23 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have cooled off to below freezing once again in our mountain starting zones. Temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing for a while which should help to lock up the deeper snowpack that is still moisture saturated. Temperatures fell by about 5c degrees to around -2c at the Eaglecrest Summit and just below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. Winds have remained fairly calm at 10-15mph with gusting to 20mph. Direction has been variable. We received 7mm of precip in the last 12 hours. This left 4cm of snow only in the last 3 hours at the tram and probably a little more in the higher mountain regions on Douglas Island where the temps were below freezing during most of the 7mm. With light to moderate winds you may find very small pockets of shallow instability but in general avalanche danger is low. With light precip volumes in the forecast for the next 24 hours and light to moderate loading winds avalanche danger will rise slightly but remain low for the most part.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-24

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY: RAIN LIKELY SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING ... THEN SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS 28 TO 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY: SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING ... THEN RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 400 FEET. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH Do you remember when you were in kindergarten and all you wanted was to just get a sandwich without all those nasty crusts? Temps continue to hover around freezing at, or just below, the start zones. This is helping the snowpack to bond overall. Superficially there is new snow accumulating over yet another crust layer creating the possibility of wind slabs on a good running surface. However precip totals have remained small with less than 10cm snow (15mm of water) over the last 24hrs at Mt. Roberts, so the corresponding size of these slabs remains small despite slowly increasing SE winds. While the character of the snowpack retains a number of crusts throughout, the moist/dry nature of the snow changes with elevation. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches possible. Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes between 2000 - 4000ft in elevation.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-25

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY: PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ... BECOMING ALL RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15MPH. TONIGHT: PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN TEH EVENING ... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY. LOWS 27 TO 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY: RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Not much has changed since yesterday. Temps continue to hover around freezing at, or just below, the start zones. Precipitation has been minimal. Southeast winds have remained steady, but moderate. Though they are now starting to trend towards the east. Pockets of instability remain out there in the form of wind slabs on a good running surface. As those potentially wet out with rising temps, or gain more wind loaded snow, small naturals are possible. However slides large enough to impact the urban zone are unlikely. While the character of the snowpack retains a number of crusts throughout, the moist/dry nature of the snow changes with elevation. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are unlikely in zones below freezing, and possible underneath the rain line. Human triggered avalanches possible. Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-26

Sat, 26 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS...BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MENDENHALL VALLEY NORTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 39...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 23 TO 27. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. The slow accumulation of precipitation, but still relatively high rain, line keeps the same strengths and concerns in play. An additional 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected to fall in the start zones over the next twenty-four hours, but winds should remain moderate out of the south. This is falling on warmer snow and should bond well. Pockets of instability remain up high in the form of wind slabs. There is steady cross loading along the channel and small naturals are possible within the new storm layers. However slides large enough to impact the urban zone are unlikely. Lower down the snow pack is very wet, never having completely refrozen after all the rain we have had. Wet slides are a definite possibility here, but full depth releases are unlikely and the small precip amounts expected would only trigger superficial results. Though large slides are not expected it is still a good idea to stay off the flume trail today as even smaller slides can be funneled down the creek beds with destructive force. While the character of the snowpack retains a number of crusts throughout, the moist/dry nature of the snow changes with elevation. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are unlikely at upper elevations, and possible below the rain line. Human triggered avalanches possible. Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-27

Sun, 27 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 32 THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 19 TO 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW IN THE MORNING IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. Temperatures have fallen by about 5c degrees over the last 48 hours at our mountain top locations and are predicted to continue falling through the day. Although we have seen nearly 25mm of precip in the last 48 hours we have only received about 2-3 inches of new snow overall after settlement is taken into consideration. This precip event started quite warm with temperatures falling. We had a quite saturated snowpack that gained some strength during its settlement and consolidation. With temps continuing to fall this wetted snowpack has started to solidify and we saw some new snow accumulate on the snowpack surface. This typically leads to good bonding between the old/new snow interface. You can assume at higher mountain elevations we would have more new snow as the temps were cooler for longer at those elevations. During the beginning of this event we had winds ranging from 20-40mph at mountain top elevations. In the last 24 hours winds have slowed slightly are now only 5-20mph. These are still adequate winds for snow transport. There is appreciably more snow transport at higher elevations where we received more snow early in the cycle during the period of higher winds. The concern for today is small pockets of wind slab at upper elevations on lee slopes. Winds were primarily out of the South but did roll around to the SW for a period of time. Be aware of windloading on N-NE slopes. Avalanche danger is low to moderate today. Natural avalanches are unlikely and yet human triggered avalanches may be possible in isolated windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline on lee slopes. With very little snow in the forecast for today and winds expected to be fairly calm through the day avalanche danger should start to slowly lower through the day. With tonights forecast for increased winds windslabs will again start to form and weaken. So overall avalanche danger will stay about the same over the next 24 hours. Be safe out there and enjoy a great Sunday!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-28

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY. LOCALLY WINDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 14. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 5 TO 11. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW. TUESDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 7 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS 19 TO 25. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. Temperatures have fallen by roughly 30f degrees over the last 48 hours. Mountain top temps are hovering barely in the positive numbers this morning. Winds although mostly calm yesterday have picked up after 3am this morning and are now hovering from 10-20mph and gusting higher. Stronger winds can be found along the channel. Sheep mountain is gusting over 40, Mt Roberts into the mid 20's and Eaglecrest is still in the teens. These winds are forecast to increase throughout the day. As the winds roll from NW to NE avalanche danger along the channel will increase. We received about 4mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours and 13mm in the last 48 hours. This left about 8mm of light dry snow on top of a few mm from the day before for a total of about 10mm(4") of new snow in the last 48 hours. This is a good snowpack with snow that came in at above freezing temperatures earlier in the week and continued to get colder stacking light dry snow on heavier snow that should have bonded fairly well to the old snow surface. The primary concern for today is windloading. Winds have been primarily from the SW to West. This morning winds are from the North and will be rolling around to the NE directly loading our urban starting zones. Avalanche danger is Moderate to Considerable this morning. Natural Avalanches are possible as the winds roll to the NE and start to load our urban paths. The instability will be near surface and no large avalanches are expected to affect our urban zones. Human triggered avalanches are possible near summit and ridgeline in isolated windloaded pockets. Be aware that as winds pick up and windloading continues danger levels will increase slightly. As we go through tonight into tomorrow be aware that avalanche danger will start to greatly increase. Temperatures are predicted to warm up a great deal and precip volumes and new snow accumulations are also forecast to increase a fair amount. All of this during a continued windloading event which will lead to further instability. Today the snowpack is right side up and building a windslab. Tomorrow the snowpack will be upside down and continuing to build a windslab of heavier snows on top of this really light dry snow in place today with a soft slab building. Tomorrow into Wednesday we will have all the ingredients leading to another avalanche cycle. Today avoid places like the Flume Trail. Avoid walking on the closed roads above the Behrands Neighborhood. Avoid parking and walking along Thane Road. Althought these avalanches are not predicted to be very large in nature, due to the light dry cold snow they have the potential to run quote fast and far pushing a powdercloud in front of them.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-29

Tue, 29 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 7 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 9 INCHES. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 18 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. WEDNESDAY...NOT AS COLD. SNOW WITH RAIN LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 400 FEET INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. Temperatures warmed up slightly by 2c overnight but remain quite cold at just below zero at both the Mt Roberts Tram and Eaglecrest Summits. Winds were quite strong yesterday and prime for windloading. We say average speeds from 20-4omph along the channel with higher gusts and 15-30 At Eaglecrest. These winds were primarily out of the NE loading all our SW facing slopes with a windslab. Winds calmed down around midnight but the forecast calls for loading winds to continue. The Mt Roberts Tram Wx station showed roughly 4mm of precip overnight starting late. This left close to 10cm (4") of super light density snow that will be easily transported. Avalanche danger today remains CONSIDERABLE. Natural avalanches possible as we see moderate amounts of new snow coming in on top of a wind slab that was created yesterday. Potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. We do not expect the size to be huge and yet these will be fast moving avalanches that can travel quite far if triggered. Please avoid the Flume Trail. Please avoid walking on the trails above the Behrands Neighborhood. Please also avoid walking, jogging, or parking along Thane Road. Human triggered avalanches probable. This windslab that was created yesterday will see continued loading over the next 48 hours. We will see warming during this event creating an upside down snowpack putting light dry soft snow under heavy snow. This lighter snow layer with a windslab will have a hard time supporting the upper snowpack. There are several of the key indicators leading to Direct Action Avalanches present today. We received moderate amounts of new snow. We received critical windloading. Temperatures are on the rise adding to the problem. Danger levels will continue to increase over the next 24-48 hours. The rate of increase will be determined by the amount of new snow, the rate of warming, and the critical windloading on lee slopes. Be safe out there folks!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-30

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 33. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. Temperatures continue warming today. Temperatures have come up by 30+ degrees in the last 48 hours. We received 3+" of snow during the cooling portion of the storm on the night of Sunday 27th. This left a layer of super cold dry snow that does not tend to bond well. We received considerable windloading along the channel shortly thereafter with winds from 20-40. Yet a fair amount less on Douglas Island with winds only reaching the mid 20's for a period of time. This layed down a weak layer topped with a wind slab in some areas on lee slopes. We can assume it is more of a concern in places with the more prominent winds. During the coldest period of the event we did not receive very much snow yet as the precip began temperatures started their rising trend. This tends to lay down heavier denser snow over looser lighter snow... and in our case this is all on top of some tender shallow wind slabs spread spatially throughout the snowpack. We have received 30mm (1.2") of precip in the last 26 hours. This is a considerable loading rate which by itself raises a red flag of building avalanche conditions. This left about 10" of snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Weather Station after settlement is taken into consideration. All of this during a major temperature swing creating an upside down snowpack on top of the shallow wind slab we said my be present in places. Of interesting note is the Mt Juneau new weather station at the top of the White Avalanche Path. Sunday we layed down the 4" of new snow... then the wind event stripped all of it away... even reducing the new snow depth more than at the beginning of the event. Then in the last 30 hours we added only 4" of new snow. So overall during the last 5 days the Mt Juneau gauge showed no appreciable snow gain. But you can assume that snow ended up somewhere adding to the backside of the stability equasion someplace else. This shows us the spatial variability nature of this recent new snow fall event. In some areas you may only have a few inches of new snow that is slightly upside down... in other areas you may see 1-2' of new snow with a weak layer, a windslab, and an additional upside down snowpack resting on top of that slab... Spatial Variability is the word of the day. With less than .25" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours, only about 2 degrees of warming, and light to moderate winds avalanche danger is MODERATE to perhaps Considerable in places today. Natural avalanches unlikely, yet possible with this weak layer, windslab, and upside down snowpack seeing some additional loading. Human triggered avalanches are probable, especially if you find the mouse trap burried spatially in our upside down snowpack. Please avoid the Flume and Perseverence Trails. Please do not walk above the gates in the Berhands neighborhood. Please do not park, walk, or job along thane road. If you choose to head out into the backcountry today be aware of these conditions. Evaluate the snow conditions where you choose to recreate to see if you have the shallow weak layer or the deeper instability. Avoid terrain traps, steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes and choose your routes wisely! Have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-01-31

Thu, 31 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures continue slightly warming today. Temperatures have come up by 32+ degrees in the last 72 hours. Temperatures yesterday climbed above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and touched freezing at the Eaglecrest summit placing freezing rain around the region at all elevations. We received 3+" of snow during the cooling portion of the storm on the night of Sunday 27th. This left a layer of super cold dry snow that does not tend to bond well. We received considerable windloading along the channel shortly thereafter with winds from 20-40. Yet a fair amount less on Douglas Island with winds only reaching the mid 20's for a period of time. This layed down a weak layer topped with a wind slab in some areas on lee slopes. We can assume it is more of a concern in places with the more prominent winds. During the coldest period of the event we did not receive very much snow yet as the precip began temperatures started their rising trend. This tends to lay down heavier denser snow over looser lighter snow... and in our case this is all on top of some tender shallow wind slabs spread spatially throughout the snowpack. Also a concern it the temperature gradient it left in the snowpack That is now locked in place by the additional new snow. With as much as a 6c degree change over 10cm this starts the faceting process in those layers which tend to weaken the crystal structure more and more over time until the gradient goes away. We have received 32mm (over 1.2") of precip in the last 48 hours and over 40mm in 54hours. This left about 20cm or 8" of snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Weather Station after settlement is taken into consideration. All of this during a major temperature swing creating an upside down snowpack on top of the shallow wind slab we said my be present in places. Of interesting note is the Mt Juneau new weather station at the top of the White Avalanche Path. Sunday we layed down the 4" of new snow... then the wind event stripped all of it away... even reducing the new snow depth more than at the beginning of the event. Then in the last 30 hours we added only 4" of new snow. So overall during the last 5 days the Mt Juneau gauge showed no appreciable snow gain. But you can assume that snow ended up somewhere adding to the backside of the stability equasion someplace else. This shows us the spatial variability nature of this recent new snow fall event. In some areas you may only have a few inches of new snow that is slightly upside down... in other areas you may see 1-2' of new snow with a weak layer, a windslab, and an additional upside down snowpack resting on top of that slab... Spatial Variability remains the word of the day. With .45" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours, only about 2 degrees of warming, and light to moderate winds avalanche danger remains MODERATE today. Natural avalanches unlikely, yet possible with this weak layer, windslab, and upside down snowpack seeing some additional loading. The ice layer is starting to be able to support a little weight and connects weaker places with stronger places but it can break and collapse under the right conditions. Human triggered avalanches remain possible, especially if you find the mouse trap burried spatially in our upside down snowpack. Please avoid the Flume and Perseverence Trails. Please do not walk above the gates in the Berhands neighborhood. Please do not park, walk, or job along thane road. If you choose to head out into the backcountry today be aware of these conditions. Evaluate the snow conditions where you choose to recreate to see if you have the shallow weak layer or the deeper instability. Avoid terrain traps, steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes and choose your routes wisely! Have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-01

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have been hovering just above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for the last 40 hours. Eaglecrest is slightly cooler yet has still come right up to the point of freezing several times for over 12 hours in the last 2 days. Winds picked up from 15-30 at Eaglecrest summit in the last 8 hours. Winds have stayed a little lower along the channel from 10-20. This would only play into the equasion at the uppermost elevations in our region as the lower mountain region has been in rain. We received 22mm of precip in the last 48 hours. This is light to moderate loading. All this new load is coming to rest on multiple weak layers that were created in the last week. Today the forecast calls for freezing levels to remain close to where they are now. We should only see about .2" (5mm) of precip between now and 6pm tonight. After 6pm tonight precip rates will increase with an additional .6" of precip in the forecast for the following 12 hours overnight. Due to increase loading on previous weak layers and warm temperatures avalanche danger remains moderate today turning to considerable overnight. Natural avalanches are possible, especially at lower elevations. As the loading rate picks up tonight the dangers will peak. Human triggered avalanche also remain possible. Be aware of steep unsupported convex slopes at mid to lower elevations where the rain will have more affect on the snowpack. At higher elevations the freezing rain crust may have locked thigs up a little better but danger remains especially as we see loading in the form of rain. If there is enough warming and rain to eat through this rain crust things will become more sensative yet that is not in the forecast at this time. Please continue to avoid the Flume and Perseverance Trail. Please do not walk, jog, or park along Thane Road.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-02

Sat, 02 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have been quite warm for the last few days. We received 1.2" of rain that has been saturating the snowpack all the way to summit elevations in the last 24 hours. With another 1/2 inch of rain in the forecast today natural wet avalanches remain possible. Human triggered avalanches also remain possible but are harder to trigger in these wet snow conditions. Be cutious of steep convex slopes. Overnight into tomorrow the temperatures should fall slightly helping with stability but at the same time we also have another 1" of precip in the forecast.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-03

Sun, 03 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS 27 TO 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. Temperatures have been above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for the last 3 days. Temperatures have been right at freezing at the Eaglecrest Summit for the same amount of time. We have received over 2.5" of rain during that time. The snowpack on the lower mountain should be fairly stable now after processing much water at above freezing temps over the last few days. Higher on the mountains in our region things may be a little trickier. At uppermost elevations you may find some new snow and small windslabs in places. We have received 15mm of precip since the Eaglecrest Summit dipped down below freezing again... during a period with 15-40mph winds. This has the ability to stack up some pockets of windslab at summit and upper mountain ridgeline on the lee slopes. With temperatures very near to freezing and cooling we can assume the snow is bonding fairly well to the old snowpack surface. It is also stacking from dense snow to lighter snow. We have an additional .6" of snow in the forecast for over the next 24 hours. This may start to deliver more new snow today into tomorrow. Wet avalanches may be possible today on lower mountain super steep slopes. This should start to stabilize as the temperatures lower in the next 24 hours. We may see small pockets of instability at upper mountain locations on lee slopes. Be aware of windloaded steep unsupported convex slopes.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-04

Mon, 04 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 25 TO 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temperatures have been below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Weather Station for the last 24 hours and are forecast to continue falling over the next 48 hours by as much as 10-13 degrees. We received 33mm of precipitation in the last 48 hours, only 20mm of which has been in the last 24 hours. With temperatures falling the lower mountain snowpack which has been quite moisture saturated over the last 4 days should start to solidify. The upper mountain may be a little trickier to understand the stability of. We received about 3" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. You can assume we received a little more at higher elevations in the region which were cooler. Over the last 3 days we have had strong winds ranging from 30-55mph for extend periods of time. Look to see additional snow accumulations on lees slopes. Winds were primarily out of the SSE... Look to see pockets of instability on NNW Slopes. Be aware of cross loading as well. Much of this snow was right at the freezing mark which tends to bond fairly well yet with high winds and considerable precip rates at these just below freezing temperatures be aware you may find pockets of instability. Avalanche danger is LOW today for natural avalanches. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Avalanche danger may be closer to moderate today for human triggered avalanches with natural avalanches possible in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline on lee slopes. Be aware of steep unanchored convex slopes. With not much precip in the forecast for the next 2 days and temperatures forecast to continue falling avalanche danger is decreasing. The more time we give the current snowpack the stronger it will become.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-05

Tue, 05 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 23. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have remained below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and above for the last 24hours plus...although they did warm back up to 31 overnight. Previously over the weekend we received rain all the way to mountain top with snow new snow only on the very upper portions of the mountains. The lower elevation snowpack is solidifying as long as temperatures remain below freezing. Today temperatures are forecast to fall slightly over the next 24+ hours. We may have some small pockets of windloaded snow at mountain top elevations. This would be the primary concern for the day but is not a widespread condition. Be aware that as winds change direction today you may once again see some loading on new aspects. With temperatures falling and almost no precip in the forecast avalanche danger will remain low for the next 24 hours.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-06

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS 25 TO 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY....CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We had rains to summit elevation late last week and over the weekend. We saw a little new snow at upper elevations before the end of the storm. This snow came in quite wet and should have bonded fairly well by now in most places. We have also seen a little bit of wind so there is a possibility of finding pockets of windslab on upper elevations. These would be primariy by summit and ridgeline. The lower mountain snowpack has settled and bonded greatly. The rain saturated snowpack is becoming quite solid again. With less than .25" of precip in the forecast for today. Continued cool temperatures and light winds, avalanche danger is low today and will remain that way into tomorrow morning.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-07

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...CHANGING TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 200 FEET OVERNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 32 IN THE EVENING...RISING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures rose to above freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Yesterday for several hours. After 6pm last hnight they started to fall again slightly. This melt freeze type of an event adds strength to the snowpack overtime. Last week we had a little new snow followed by a wind event and then freezing rain. This put a cap onto a weak layer in the snowpack that is still present in places creating a hard slab. Since that time we saw quite a bit of rain. In most of the lower mountain areas this removed the weak layer under the freezing rain cap. At upper elevations you may still find weak layers under the super hard freezing rain/rain crust in place. With only 2.5mm of precip leaving 1" of snow in the last 3 days avalanche danger is low at this time. As we go through tonight into tomorrow we will start to see additional precip in the forecast. Avalanche danger will start to rise at this time. First only for small slides as the new snow starts to add up. Over the weekend we will see increased precip rates. We will want to watch carefully what the freezing levels are and how this affects the possible previous weak layer found at upper elevations in places. We will also want to pay close attention to how this new snow bonds to the old snow surface that is quite icy in places. Have a great day and hope this weekends event brings us snow new snow to play on.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-08

Fri, 08 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY, RAIN. DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have stayed below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit over the last 24 hours. The precipitation started in after 6pm last night and has since deposited around 1.5" of precip. At the Mt Roberts Tram Summit elevation this left over 10" of new high density snow. You can assume the Eaglecrest summit is showing higher amounts at cooler temperatures and higher elevations. Mt Juneau is showing over 10" this morning as well. This snow came in during a period of 20-50mph winds. This is a considerable windloading condition that should be taken into consideration. Winds were primarily out of our traditional direction of SSE. Look to see windloading on N to NW facing slopes today. During this snowfall event temperatures warmed by about 2f degrees. This new snow came to rest on a surface that was quite icy in places. Look to see how the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface. All the indicators are there for conditions leading to direct action avalanches. Temperatures are to remain warm today. The precip rates are supposed to slow down after this morning and not deliver a great deal over the next 24 hours. So conditions should remain relatively the same. Avalanche danger is Considerable today. Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable especially in windloaded pockets near summit and ridgeline. Be aware of steep convex slopes over terrain traps. Be aware of large weak cornice formation with the winds. Look to see how this new snow is layering and bonding to the old snow surface in the areas you choose to play in today. Be aware slabs are being skier released today in places.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-09

Sat, 09 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET INCREASING TO 1700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...WINDY...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. SUNDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1700 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Snow continued to fall during the day yesterday with strong winds, great for cross loading the channel slopes, before tapering off yesterday afternoon. This left us with a fresh windslab resting on top of our recent dusting of colder snow. The slab is widespread, and over a meter thick in places. Like most new storm slabs; this one was initially tender with easy human triggers during the day yesterday, but only a few natural slides. The lull in winds and precip last night and this morning give the snowpack a chance to bond a little before the next wave of moisture which starts this afternoon. This is supposed to be a wet one with about an inch of rain falling in the start zones before tomorrow morning and continuing through the day tomorrow. If the new storm begins as rain in the start zones it will likely trigger small to medium size slides in the windslab before changing to snow later and reloading them. In this scenario destructive avalanches are not likely to affect urban zones except for the flume and perserverance trails which should be avoided today and tomorrow. If the new storm ends up being colder than currently forecast then our start zones could see up to 12 inches of fresh snow laid down with more wind creating the possibility of larger, more destructive slides. If that seems to be developing this forecast will be updated by 8pm tonight. Currently Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE increasing to HIGH after the heavy rain starts today: Natural avalanches are possible at upper elevations, and likely below the rain line. Human triggered avalanches probable. The Flume and Perserverance Trail zones should be avoided today and tonight. In other Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is recommended only with extreme caution as most West, East, and North slopes are wind loaded with a slab of varying tenderness.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-10

Sun, 10 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. Plenty of snow in the start zones last night, with steady 30 - 40kt winds building on the windslab from the last couple days make for likely avalanche conditions as the stress on the snowpack continues to grow throughout the day with more wind and precipitation. It is important to stay off the Flume trail today and out of Perserverance. Use caution when driving under the Thane Rd paths. Fortunately most of the urban start zones did not have a particularly deep and uniform snow cover at the start of the this storm cycle, so the slides that come down are likely to be medium size with some large crowns in drifts and tapering off across the slopes. We may see slides in the White, Berhends, and Cross Bay Paths but they are not likely to be large enough to reach structures. Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today: Natural avalanches probable, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches likely. Unstable slabs exist on steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Monitor avalanche forecasts. Backcountry travelers remember that this is an urban forecast hunting for larger size avalanches and that human triggered avalanches are quite likley on E-N-W slopes above 1500ft.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-11

Mon, 11 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTH WIND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE. TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHWEST WIND 5 MPH. Temps are cooling and the steady precip and wind will begin tapering off today in the start zones. This will be adding strength to the overall snowpack. We have still had 5cm of precipitation settle on the mountains over the last 48hrs. Some of that has been rain/rime, but most of it has been snow. While the trend is decreasing for the 24hr period, highest hazard will be this morning with the possibility that small surface releases will step down into deeper windslab layers from the last 72hrs. Sizes on most slide paths in the urban zones are unlikely to reach developed areas. However it is still a good idea to avoid areas near the Flume and Perserverance Trails. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches are possible at upper elevation. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised under steep slopes and near avalanche paths. Human triggered avalanches possible. Backcountry Travelers are going to find conditions that widely vary with elevation. Extra caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected E-N-W slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-12

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 35. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Temperatures have fallen by 4c degrees over the last 3 days. We received 90mm of precipitation in the last 4 days (nearly 4") This left around 20cm of very dense snow at tram summit elevations and additional amounts at higher elevations but all quite dense and wind affected in places. You can assume there are deep wind drifted pockets in places near summit and ridgeline. Some of which may still be sensative for human triggered avalanches in isolated places. Todays forecast calls for temperatures to cool off over the next 24 hours and no significant precipitation... With only light winds avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches are also unlikely yet may be possible in very isolated places.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-13

Wed, 13 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 35. EAST WIND TO 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING...MIXING WITH RAIN LATE FROM DOWNTOWN JUNEAU SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures continue to slightly cool. They have dropped 3c degrees in the last 72 hours. Mostly a slow consistent falling rate. Winds have been under 20mph for the last 48 hours and just picked up to 18-22mph at the Eaglecrest summit over the last few hours. Conditions have been fairly dry. We received 2mm of precip in the last 36+ hours which left 1" of new snow. With not much additional snow in the forecast today and continued cool temperatures avalanche danger is low. With winds increasing and our precip volumes starting to rise over the next 2-3 days avalanche danger is on the rise. Today danger should remain low. Same for early tomorrow. By the time we go into Thursday evening precip volumes will rise a great deal which will start to rise avalanche danger more and more at that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-14

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF RAIN BECOMING STEADY AND HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET RISING ABOVE 1500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received roughly 2" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and above elevations over the last 36 hours. Temperatures have risen close to the point of freezing at that elevation once again. Winds have been from 20-45mph at the Eaglecrest Summit over the last 12 hours with the winds along the channel being quite a bit lower. Yet windloading is a possibility at both locations. This morning around the noon hour the precipitation rates are predicted to pick up a great deal. From noon today to noon tomorrow we expect to see as much as 1.7" of precipitation at mountain elevations. This will come in with warm temperatures which will start to load the little bit of new snow we have on the groung quite quickly. Right now the concern is for small windloaded pockets on lee slopes... as this new storm builds we will be concerned with a few things. Rain on snow at lower elevations. Heavy snow on the small windpockets that exist on upper elevations. The loading rate will be an issue at upper elevations. This will be quite a bit of new snow load over the next 36 hours at elevations that receive new snow. Natural avalanches are unlikely this morning yet becomming more possible once the precip rates increase and the new snow load adds up. Human triggered avalanches are possible in very isolated pockets up high and this potential is building as this new storm starts to stack up today into tomorrow. Danger levels will be increasing over the next 24 hours so be careful out there. This afternoon into tomorrow it is a good idea to avoid the Flume Trail.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-15

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 37mm (1.45")of precipitation in the last 24 hours and the forecast calls for as much as 13m(.5") more by noon. The Mt Roberts Tram weather Station saw quite warm temperatures yesterday with a 2+ degree rise overnight we are at +2c at the tram summit currently. Temperatures were a little cooler during a big portion of the precip and yet we only saw just a few inches of new snow accumulation. The Mt Juneau Station which is 700' higher is also showing only very little new snow. You can assume at upper elevations there is a bit more new snow. Temperatures are forecast to remain pretty much the same throughout the day with cooling into the evening. The precip rates should fall off after the noon hour with models showing 1/2" in the next 6 hours and only 1/2" in the 24 hours following that. We saw moderate windloading throughout the cycle sure to have created some weak pockets at upper elevations on windloaded slopes. Avalanche danger is moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely due to mostly rain at our elevations yet they are possible in very high upper mountain starting zones. These would not be excessively large avalanches as they would not have the ability to entrain much additional snow as they run out of new snow at lower elevations. Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in windloaded pockets at upper elevations on lee slopes. Use good terrain selection out there and recognize that if your finding enough new snow to enjoy... there is enough new snow to avalanche...

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-16

Sat, 16 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received 60mm (2.36")of precipitation in the last 72 hours. 53mm (2.08")of which came in the last 48. For the first 24 hours and 7mm of precipitation the temperatures were below freezing which left about 10cm of new snow at the Tram Summit elevation. For the last 48 hours temperatures have hovered at freezing and above. Reaching 2c+ for over 12 hours. We received another 7cm of snow later in the storm yesterday morning but overall this entire 60mm precipitation event only left 1cm of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit station after settlement and consolidation are taken into consideration. This is only at 1800' of elevation and also has warm air uplifting from the channel affect. There are much larger accumulations at higher elevations. We had winds gusting from 20-50mph during a majority of the last 3 days at upper elevations. Places on Douglas have seen over 1' of new snow over the last several days with considerable drifting in places as well. With not much precipitation or wind in the forecast avalanche danger is Moderate today. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible in isolated areas near summit and ridgeline on lee slopes. Be aware the lower mountain snowpack is also quite moisture saturated and stability may be questionable on unanchored slopes. As temperatures cool off this evening and into the next few days avalanche danger will decrease.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-17

Sun, 17 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have cooled by 5c in the last 48 hours. Where temps were previously above freezing at most of our mountain elevations they are now back well below once again. This is starting to lock the lower elevation snowpack back in place. At upper elevations we have a little new snow. Early on in the weeks storm this snow was deposited during high winds. The last 2 days have been fairly calm and we received only 5mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours. With the near freezing temps that allowed this new snow to settle and bond quite well avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Natural avalanches are unlikely, Human triggered avalanches unlikely. Be aware there could still be isolated areas of weakness on windloaded slopes at upper elevations. With as much as 6" of new snow possible in the next 24 hour forecast avalanche danger will start to rise as this new snow starts to accumulate.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-18

Mon, 18 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have warmed slightly in the last 24 hours and are now -1c at the tram summit and -3c at the Eaglecrest Summit. Winds blew most of the day yesterday from 20-35 gusting to 40 at the Eaglecrest Summit. They were slightly milder along the channel with Mt Roberts Tram winds only topping out at barely 30 during gusty periods. We received roughly 15mm of precip in the last 24 hours. This left 17cm (6-7")of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. The Mt Juneau gauge is showing less new snow and more settlement. With temperatures remaining cool today and less than .25" of precip in the forecast for the next 24 hours avalanche danger is Moderate at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. This holds especially true in areas near summit and ridgeline. Windloaded pockets are the primary concern today. We do not expect them to be very large yet if you are near a terrain trap the size doesnt matter quite as much. Choose your routes carefully and enjoy the new snow today.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-19

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL 200 FEET INCREASING TO 600 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH LATE. WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 500 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. We have received several inches of new snow over the last few days. In wind exposed areas near summit and ridgeline this has created some isolated pockets of windslab. Be aware that cornices in some areas are quite built out and weak as well. Most of the mountain zone is fairly stable with not all that much new snow and time for this snow to settle and bond. But the end of the snowstorm warmed up a little and we saw some windloading finishing off this small storm event with a slightly upside down snowpack with a windslab in areas. Avalanche danger remains moderate today. Natural avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches remain possible. With less than .5" of precip in the next 24 hours and consistent temperatures avalanche danger will remain the same over the next day. Natural avalanches are still unlikely yet be aware if you choose to play in the backcountry there are pockets of instability.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-20

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY IN TAKU INLET. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL INCREASING TO 800 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Temperatures have been relatively constant for the last 48 hours hovering just below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and -1.5-2.5c at the Eaglecrest Summit. Where winds were calm over the weekend they picked up yesterday in the afternoon. Overnight we saw winds from 20-50 in our mountain zones. Douglas Island saw the bigger winds than along the channel. We received 11mm (.4) of precip overnight and 20mm(.8")in the last 48 hours. This left us 15cm of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. With Considerable loading winds, moderate precip accumulations and near freezing temperatures avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Todays forecast calls for temps remaining nearly the same until evening with slight cooling overnight. The forecast calls for as much as another .75" of precip in the next 24 hours which could being 6+" of new snow in our mountain enviroment. This will bring a slight rise in avalanche danger over the next 24 hours. Natural avalanches are unlikely today yet possible. The current snowpack is supporting weight well yet with wind loading and near critical precip rates the chance of natural avalanches remains. Human triggered avalanches are likely today. Be careful in areas where windloading exists. Be aware cornices will be weak. Lee slopes just below summit and ridgeline will also be building slabs quickly. Be aware of terrain traps, steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes. Ride with your partners and make sure to ride one at a time through avalanche prone terrain. Use caution and have a great day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-21

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LIKELY LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET DECREASING TO SEA LEVEL LATE. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Temperatures have remained fairly constant over the last 3 days. There has been considerable windldoading over the last 36 hours with perfect wind speeds between 20-the mid 40's. We have received about 18cm of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit over the last 48 hours. The new snow combined with considerable loading winds have created some avalanche danger in the backcountry. Yesterday human triggered avalanches were present in windloaded areas. Avalanche danger remains Moderate today. With very little snow in the forecast, constant temps, and light to moderate winds natural avalanches are unlikey yet possible. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in windloaded areas. Use caution if you head into the backcountry. Yesterday reports of slabs being triggered ranged in size quite a bit. But one skier triggered slab that propagated to over a meter deep was reported.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-22

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 32. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures have remained fairly constant at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit ranging between -1 and -2c. Eaglecrest has changed a bit more ranging from -1 to -3.5c. Temperatures are forecast to remain cool today with Saturday and Sunday Temps predicted to fall a little bit. We received 11mm of precipitation in the last 24 hours and 25mm (1") over the last 2 days. After overall settlement and consolidations this left us only about 6cm of new snow. We received a great deal more new snow but it settled a great deal. We are looking at about 1' of new since last weekend on the Mt Juneau Weather Station and about 35cm (14")of new at the Mt Roberts Station over the last 5 days. Winds have been quite strong during the week with several days ranging between 20-50mph summit winds. This built wind slabs several times over the last few days. Many of them are fiarly strong yet areas of weakness have been found around the region. The overall volume of new snow combined with windloading creates a concern. In general most areas are fairly stable... Yet make sure to look closely at steeper windloaded areas where the concern will be greater. Pockets of instability may exist and if those were to trigger in the deeper weak layers you could develop sizeable slides. Avoid terrain traps. Avalanche danger is Moderate today. Natural Avalanches are unlikely. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in areas. With almost no new snow in the forecast over the next 36 hours light winds and constant temperatures danger levels will decrease. Be aware as Saturday night leads to Sunday with new snow danger levels may increase at that time.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-23

Sat, 23 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...NUMEROUS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH LATE. SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. Cooler temperatures begining about noon yesterday have helped to bond this weeks wind slabs leaving us with a fairly strong snowpack this morning. Pockets of instability remain up high in the form of wind slabs but they are unlikely to trigger naturally today. An additional 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected to fall in the start zones over the next twenty-four hours. Winds will pick up again out of the SouthEast this afternoon and likely be 30 - 40 kts at ridgetop level. There will be steady cross loading along the channel and small naturals will be possible within the new storm layers. However slides large enough to impact the urban zone are unlikely. Though large slides are not expected it is still a good idea to stay off the flume trail tonight and tomorrow as even smaller slides can be funneled down the creek beds with destructive force. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Unstable slabs probable on wind loaded terrain as the storm progresses. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-24

Sun, 24 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MONDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 36. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. The wind was transporting a lot of snow yesterday but dropped off about 4 o'clock when the snow ended. Mt Roberts got 13mm SWE or about 14cm of snow, with Mt Juneau getting closer to 20cm of snow. This has settled overnight. Pockets of instability remain up high in the form of wind slabs but they are unlikely to trigger naturally today. Two small troughs are likely to pass through today and tonight bringing snow showers with them but precip amounts are going to be small. While the winds yesterday definitely created wind loaded pockets the steady temps and settlement have added strength to them and natural avalanches are unlikely, though human triggered avalanches remain a definite possibility. If we do get some patches of blue this afternoon be aware of solar heating on wind loaded slopes. Though large slides are not expected it is still a good idea to stay off the flume trail today and tomorrow as their southerly aspect will get the most warming and even smaller slides can be funneled down the creek beds with destructive force. Avalanche Danger is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible. Unstable slabs probable on wind loaded terrain. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-25

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN LATE. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. Temps at the Tram peaked just above freezing a little after noon yesterday, but have since dropped back off. Eaglecrest and Mt Juneau never made it above freezing. We received minimal new snow from scattered showers in the start zones over the last 24hrs with only mild winds and overall the snowpack has had more time to settle and bond. Looking forward; there is not a lot of precip forecast, but there is a good chance that we will get strong winds late tonight at ridgetop level creating the possibility of wind transport. I am going to leave the Avalanche Danger at MODERATE today, but only because of tonights storm front: Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. In Urban Zones normal caution is advised. Backcountry Travel is generally safe. Human triggered avalanches definitely still possible. Unstable slabs possible on wind loaded terrain. Normal caution is advised with particular attention to wind affected slopes, and ridgetops facing North.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-26

Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET INCREASING TO 900 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. Temperatures rose to near the point of freezing yesterday at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit during our beautiful sunny day. On some aspects I am sure the sun took a little affect. With these near freezing temperatures our snowpack has continued to settle and consolidate quite a bit over the last week. Winds remained light to moderate over the last few days and we have not seen much in the way of recent windloading over the last 48 hours yet there was a fair amount of windloading last week during our period of new snow accumulation. We had several days with winds ranging from 30-50mph during periods of snow. We have had 4 significant periods of new snow over the last 9 days with over 2' of new snow overall. With this much new snow over the last week be sure to analyze the layering and snowpack in the areas you choose to ride! With less than .3" precipitation in the forecast for the next 24 hours and light winds avalanche danger is low at this time. Natural avalanches are not likely. Yet be aware that with significant deposits of new snow over the last week and wind loading you may still be able to find pockets of weakness in the backcountry that could be human triggered. Although the snow is good right now be sure to use safe riding practices. One at a time, always riding with partners, and practicing good companion rescue techniques always carrying your avalanche transceiver, probe and shovel.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-27

Wed, 27 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MORNING IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET DECREASING TO 200 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. THURSDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET INCREASING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. With diurnal fluctuation temperatures remained near the freezing mark at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit for the last 48 hours ranging from -2C to 0c. Yesterday upper mountain winds along the channel were quite strong creating wind slabs on SW aspects and loading some of our urban start zones. We had enough wind loading that by late in the day human triggered avalanches were easily triggered and we even saw a few small natural avalanches later in the afternoon. Late in the afternoon the Channel winds slowed while the Douglas Island winds picked up bringing this windloading condition to most of our Juneau backcountry region. This morning winds at Eaglecrest remain from 20-35mph and the Tram is showing winds from 10-30. Active windloading is still taking place although direction has shifted to our more traditional direction. We received around 7mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit which left behind about 9cm of new snow. This may be showing a little windloading as well with where the weather station is located. The forecast for today calls for .6" of precip in the next 24 hours. Slight warming in temperatures and moderate loading winds at elevation. Recognizing that we saw some very weak test scores yesterday and even a few natural avalanches, and also recognizing we will continue with a destabilizing trend in the form of warming, wind, and new snow load, avalanche danger is moderate to Considerable today. Natural Avalanches are possible. Human triggered avalanches are more probable in windloaded locations. Please avoid the Flume Trail for today. Avalanche sizes are not predicted to be big enough to affect the urban enviroments. Avalanches along Thane road could be of varying size depending on which section were to release and at what depth. We have seen several feet of new snow up high over the last week and with windloading in the wrong spot we could have sizable releases along Thane should they occur.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-02-28

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We have received 19mm of precip in the last 48 hours which left 15cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation are taken into consideration. Winds have been considerable to high over the last two days with a couple of directional changes. Two days ago we received a fair amount of loading with winds out of the NE. Last night winds ramped up to 40+ across the region out of the SE. Many of the slopes in our region are windloaded today. Temperatures warmed up by 3C degrees at Eaglecrest over the last 48 hours and the tram stayed close to the same coming up close to the freezing point a few times over the last 48 hours. Temperatures today are forecast to rise slightly as is the freezing level. This afternoon we are supposed to see around 1/3" of precip in a 6 hour period during the height of this warming. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural Avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable in places. Danger is heightened in wind loaded locations. Avoid the Flume Trail today. Avoid spending time in the avalanche paths along Thane Road.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-01

Fri, 01 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. Temperatures remained constant over the last few days with a few mid day spikes at the Mt Roberts Tram getting to just above the freezing mark. Douglas Island has stayed a little cooler holding some cold air in its valleys. This mid day warming and high freezing levels have helped to maintain some stability along the channel. We have seen winds from 20-50 over the last few days which continues to build weakness on windloaded slopes. While winds have been mostly out of the SE they have rotated to the NE several times over the last 4 days adding to the spatial variability. We have seen 22mm of precipitation over the last 48 hours leaving only 5cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation come into play and yet he have seen closer to a foot of new snow up high over the last 3 days and even more this week. Yesterday ski triggered avalanches were possible. Also a few small natural avalanches were observed on Douglas Island during the storm the previous night. We are near a state of natural avalanche instability accross the region. Precip rates were well below forecast over the last 24 hours with only 10mm (.4") of Snow Water Equivilant (SWE)This has helped us stay away from the natural avalanche cycle and yet was more than enough combined with the winds to build dangerous avalanche conditions for human trigged avalanches. Yesterday avalanches were created by avalanche control at Eaglecrest to as deep as 77cm snowing us with enough force there is a deep instability in places. Snowpit tests showed with triggers on near surface layers there was the ability for the slab to step down to the deeper weak layers in place. With not much precip in the day today and a cooling trend over the next 24 hours avalanche danger is Considerable and falling. Natural avalanches are possible and yet not highly likely. Human triggered avalanches remain probable on snow loaded slopes. Snow machines would have even more ability to trigger these stiff deeper instabilities. Be careful out there folks. Please continue to avoid use of the Flume Trail today as precip is still coming in at the warmest temps we have seen all week. As tonight goes into tomorrow this area should become much safer once again.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-03

Sun, 03 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 42. LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS 21 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 20 TO 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. We received some moderate snowfall at elevation earlier in the week. During this snowfall event we had high winds with active windloading. We had several days where there was new snow reactivity for avalanches. We had weak layers from 6" to 3' several times during the week. Some easy human triggers were possible during the event. We also had a few small natural avalanches. This shows us that weak layers were present during the event. Many of those weak layers have healed and become stronger since then but the possibility of isolated pockets of weakness still exists. For the most part avalanche danger is low yet due to windslabs in place and lots of weak layers during the weak I am leaving the avalanche danger at Moderate today and falling. Things are continuing to heal. Natural avalanches are unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches may still be possible. And snowmobile triggered avalanches on the deeper weak layers may also be a concern in isolated wind loaded pockets.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-04

Mon, 04 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 21 TO 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. The last two days during the heat of the day and in the sun temperatures went to freezing and above. The sun also plays a direct role in warming the snowpack. Over time this creates melt freeze snow that tends to be stronger during the cooler parts of the day. Yet be aware that during the heat of the day in sun exposed slopes this leads to greater instability as well. Be aware of wet point release avalanches as the sun cleans the snow off the trees and rocks on the steep open south to SW facing slopes in the afternoon sun. We had a fair amount of snow last week with high winds and great windloading. Be aware there may still be areas of windslab weakness in windloaded areas. Avalanche danger is MODERATE today and still lowering slowly over time during the cool parts of the day. But during the heat of the day on sunny slopes the avalanche danger is not lowering. Small natural wet point release avalanches are possible during the heat of the day. Avoid the Flume Trail during the heat of the afternoon into early evening. Human triggered avalanches may still be possible in windloaded locations. Most especially during the heat of the day as the sun weakens the bonds in the snowpack increasing the settlement rate and stress on the snowpack. Continue to think of the affect of the sun and choose your routes wisely during different times of the day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-05

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 24. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHWEST WIND 5 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 22 TO 28. NORTHWEST WIND 5 MPH. It continues to be cool and clear. Temperatures continue to rise just above freezing during the day in our urban paths continuing to add to the melt freeze process slowly building strength into out regions snowpack. Yesterday we did see some ridgetop winds in several locations especially in the regions southeast along the channel. There may be small pockets of windslab up high in those regions. For the most part avalanche danger is LOW. Continue to look for small point release avalanches as the trees and rocks on steep sun exposed faces continue to clean themselves during the heat of the day. Be aware that during this same time of the day from noon to 4 our snowpack is the weakest on sun exposed locations. Think about the angle of the slope to the sun. The more perpendicular it is to the sun the more the sun takes affect. South faces first then later in the afternoon greater affecting South and Southeast faces. Limit your exposure to big terrain and terrain traps and funnels during this critical time of the day on these sunny days. Large avalanches are unlikely in the urban enviroment. Enjoy another sunny magnificient day!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-06

Wed, 06 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 26. NORTHWEST WIND 5 MPH. THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. The weather continues to remain clear and cool. We continue to barely reach above freezing temperatures at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit daily during the heat of the day. Upper mountain temperatures remain much cooler. The snowpack is stable for the most part. Be aware of large cornices. Be aware of pockets of windslab. In some areas there are still windslab pockets with weak snow underneath them. There is a strong temperature gradient in some of these areas which is eroding the bonds in the snowpack as the snow becomes faceted in these near surface layers. The sun is taking affect on south facing slopes. Small areas of snow are cleaning themselves off of trees and rocks. These have the ability to start point release avalanches but mostly only at lower elevations right now where the temperatures are warmer. Be aware when operating under steep open slopes during the heat of the day on south facing slopes. Limit time spent in these exposed areas. Spatial variability is quite high. If you find wind sheltered pockets on north facing slopes the snowpack remains quite soft and dry. If you go to more wind exposed areas on south facing slopes you will find wind scouring and the beginning of sun crusts. These conditions will be especially important to take into consideration as the next storm systems roll in. Tomorrow is supposed to remain clear and cooler so conditions should be close to the same. Have another great day and enjoy the sun!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-07

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. The weather continues to remain clear and cool. We continue to barely reach above freezing temperatures at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit daily during the heat of the day. Upper mountain temperatures remain much cooler. The snowpack is stable for the most part. Be aware of large cornices. Be aware of pockets of windslab. In some areas there are still windslab pockets with weak snow underneath them. There is a strong temperature gradient in some of these areas which is eroding the bonds in the snowpack as the snow becomes faceted in these near surface layers. The sun is taking affect on south facing slopes. Small areas of snow are cleaning themselves off of trees and rocks. This has the ability to start point release avalanches but mostly only at lower elevations right now where the temperatures are warmer. Be aware when operating under steep open slopes during the heat of the day on south facing slopes. Limit time spent in these exposed areas. Spatial variability is quite high. If you find wind sheltered pockets on north facing slopes the snowpack remains quite soft and dry. If you go to more wind exposed areas on south facing slopes you will find wind scouring and the beginning of sun crusts. These conditions will be especially important to take into consideration as the next storm systems roll in. Tomorrow is going to start clouding up again as we roll into the weekend with high freezing levels and new snow consider the base this new snow is falling onto and bonding with. Have another great day and enjoy the sun!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-08

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET RISING TO 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. We have had a week of cool clear weather with temperatures reaching just above freezing each day at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit. We have also seen sun during this event which adds to the melt freeze on south facing slopes on the snowpack surface. Our snowpack has settled nearly 20cm over the last 6 days adding to its current strength. Avalanche danger should remain low today. With as much as .7" of precip in the forecast during a warming trend with freezing levels rising avalanche danger will rise from this evening into Sunday morning. This new snow will create avalanche conditions that will be quite spatially variable. In areas we have shallow windslabs with a high temperature gradient and faceted snow beneath them which will remain quite weak. In other areas we have sun crusts which are quite hard and slick. This new snow may not bond well to the snowpack surface in those areas. And last but not least, in shaded north facing areas we now have surface hoar which will also form a weak layer and poor bonding surface for this new snow interface. As we go into tomorrow and Sunday we will want to look closely to the new snow and how it bonds to the snowpack surface and weather or not it is resting on this shallow windslab resting on facets. We will also want to watch the winds quite closely. If this system comes in with winds any additional loading will add to the stress equasion and be a concern. Get out and enjoy today as tonight and into the weekend we are moving back into Juneau weather!

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-09

Sat, 09 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTH WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 600 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 28. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. It has been clear and cool for a week following a snowfall and wind event. We still have pockets of shallow windslab in places in the backcountry. Under this windslab we had a strong temperature gradient leading to faceting in the snowpack which weakens its ability to support new load. This is spatially variable and does not exist everywhere. On south facing slopes the sun took affect leaving a sun crust in places as well. On North facing slope and shaded aspects we some some surface hoar formation which also does not support new snow load well. Be aware that these are the conditions this new snow is falling on. We received roughly 8mm or SWE and 8cm of new snow in the last 9 hours. During that time winds were 10-30mph and gusting higher on Douglas Island. Most of these winds were out of our traditional SSE. Eaglecrest is showing much more snow with more like 8". Look to see new windloaded snow on NNW slopes at upper elevations near summit and ridgeline. Recognize this new snow will probably not bond very well to the old snow surface. Small human triggered avalanches are possible in these locations. Natural avalanches remain unlikely until the load increases. Avalanche danger is Moderate at this time and increasing during todays new snow event. Dangers will rise slightly into tomorrow. Use caution in the backcountry and have a great day.

Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-10

Sun, 10 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0900

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH. We received a considerable amount of snow in the last 24-40 hours. The Mt Roberts Tram is showing 22mm of SWE for 20 cm of new snow. While the Eaglecrest mid mountain site is showing much more like 35cm or 16" of new snow. The beginning of this storm came in with fair winds leaving a shallow windslab in places. All this came to rest on a very spatially variable snowpack. It may be resting on suncrusts, shallow windslabs with near surface facets resting beneath them, or surface hoar created from our week of clear cool temperatures. None of these are good bonding surfaces. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time. Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. With the precip rates lowering today as well as cool temperatures in place natural avalanches although possible are not highly likely. Human triggered avalanches probable. Yesterday human triggered avalanches were possible in places on Douglas Island and this remains true today. Human triggered avalanches are likely! Be extremely cautious if you choose to venture out into the backcountry. With cool temps in plavce for the next few days and lower precip rates avalanche danger should start to fall slowly over time. Give this snowpack time to settle and bond. If you choose to venture out today be conservative in your terrain choices. Avoid terrain traps, skiing over the top of cliffs, convex rolls, slide paths above heavily timbered areas. Choose open lines on less exposed slopes with good anchors, and lower angle terrain until you get the feel for what is going on with this new snow load. Today is a good day to avoid the Flume Trail. Avoid parking or walking along Thane Road. Limit your exposure to avalanche danger by limiting your time in avalanche terrain. Be careful out there folks and enjoy a great day of powder.